Projecting Each MLB Division's Final Standings at the Start of Spring Training

Karl BuscheckFeb 15, 2015

Everyone knows MLB games aren't won on paper.

After all, a lot will happen between now and the end of the 2015 MLB regular season. The 30 big league clubs still need to report to spring training, play out the exhibition schedule and then power through the 162-game grind that is the MLB regular season.

After poring through the 2014 standings and considering all the critical free-agent and trade moves of the winter, I'm making projections for how each MLB division's final standings will shake out.

On the West Coast, the Los Angeles Angels and the Los Angeles Dodgers are not only favorites to hold on to their respective division titles, but are also among the best teams in baseball. In the center, a perennial contender could be hurtling toward a disappointing campaign, while a Chicago club could be a surprise participant in the postseason. In the east, there are a couple of dark-horse contenders who are preparing to make an October run.

Projected AL West Final Standings

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Jim Cowsert/Associated Press

1. Los Angeles Angels: 91-71

2. Oakland Athletics: 88-74

3. Seattle Mariners: 86-76

4. Houston Astros: 73-89

5. Texas Rangers: 70-92

After racking up the most wins in baseball in 2014, the Los Angeles Angels are primed to repeat as the AL West champions. Before crashing out in the AL Division Series, the Angels were absolutely rolling in the second half of the season even though staff ace Garrett Richards hit the shelf with a serious knee injury at the end of August.

General manager Jerry Dipoto told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that the team won't "rush" Richards back, but Dipoto still expects him to return sooner rather than later: "We're not going try to prove a point by having him ready by opening day. If it's two weeks in, that's fine too.”

With the Angels looking like the front-runner in the division, the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners will once again be battling for second place and a wild-card spot.

There's no avoiding the fact that Oakland has lost a ton of pop this offseason with Josh Donaldson and Brandon Moss among the most notable departures. However, GM Billy Beane has quietly put together a pitching staff that will give the team a chance to win on any given night. Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir are the most prominent holdovers, while Jesse Hahn is among the array of new acquisitions to watch out for.

For the Seattle Mariners, a third-place finish would mark the 14th year in a row the club would be left out of October. Last season, the M's most pressing weakness was a lack of right-handed power. Seattle has addressed that issue with the signing of Nelson Cruz, but there are some red flags surrounding the pickup.

Cruz clubbed 40 home runs in 2014, but he went yard just 12 times in the second half of the season. Plus, the right-handed hitter has never had much success in his new home park, posting a .234 batting average in 52 contests at Safeco Field, per Baseball-Reference.

The Houston Astros are edging closer to contention, but the club doesn't have the talent—especially in terms of pitching—to match up with the three teams listed above. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers should win more games after an injury-riddled 2014. Still, even in a best-case scenario, the Rangers are headed toward back-to-back last-place finishes.

Projected AL Central Final Standings

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Paul Sancya/Associated Press

1. Chicago White Sox: 89-73

2. Detroit Tigers: 86-76

3. Cleveland Indians: 84-78

4. Kansas City Royals: 82-80

5. Minnesota Twins: 68-94

As D'Angelo Barksdale of HBO's The Wire said, "The king stays the king." Unfortunately for the Detroit Tigers, who have been sitting on the throne the past four seasons, Barksdale was talking about chess and not the AL Central.

Any of the top four teams in the division has a legitimate chance to win the title. The Kansas City Royals are the reigning AL champs, and the Cleveland Indians are shaping up to be a dark-horse contender in 2015. As for the Tigers, there are simply too many concerns to put the team in the top spot.

Spring training hasn't even arrived, and both Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera are dealing with injury issues. Justin Verlander is an enigma entering the season, and Max Scherzer is now pitching in the nation's capital. Last year, the bullpen was disastrous, and the group is likely to be problematic again in 2015.

Meanwhile, there's a lot to like about the Chicago White Sox. In Chris Sale and Jose Abreu, the White Sox have two of the premier players in baseball. This offseason, the front office has been busy building a supporting cast via both the trade and free-agent markets. The top names on that list include Jeff Samardzija, Adam LaRoche, Melky Cabrera and David Robertson.

The Minnesota Twins are the one team that can be safely ruled out of the race, but the future is bright for this squad. Per Bleacher Report, the Twins check in with the second-best farm system in the majors.

Projected AL East Final Standings

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Nick Wass/Associated Press

1. Baltimore Orioles: 90-72

2. Boston Red Sox: 89-73

3. New York Yankees: 83-79

4. Toronto Blue Jays: 80-82

4. Tampa Bay Rays: 68-94

There's no way around it: This was a bad winter on the free-agent front for the Baltimore Orioles, as both Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis have exited Camden Yards.

It's worth remembering that the O's will be getting a couple of stars back in the lineup with both Manny Machado and Matt Wieters healthy again as spring training approaches. Machado and Wieters are just two pieces of a dynamic offensive core that also includes Adam Jones, Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy and Steve Pearce.

On the mound, Baltimore has as strong a pitching staff as any team in the division. Chris Tillman is the Orioles' No. 1 starter, but the way Kevin Gausman pitched at the end of 2014, it's possible he'll claim that role at some point this summer. Andrew Miller is now a member of the New York Yankees, but the relief corps headlined by Zach Britton and Darren O'Day is still one of the most intimidating bullpens in baseball.

After slotting Baltimore in first, it's challenging to peg just who will finish in second, third and fourth place. The Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays have formidable lineups, but pitching—especially the starting rotation—could be a liability for both clubs. If Masahiro Tanaka's elbow remains healthy, it's actually the Yankees who have the best group of starters out of this trio.

With Alex Cobb, the Tampa Bay Rays will be trotting out the best starter in this division. In recent seasons, the Rays have made a consistent habit of exceeding expectations. The problem is that former GM Andrew Friedman and former manager Joe Maddon won't be around this time to guide the squad.

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Projected NL West Final Standings

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David Zalubowski/Associated Press

1. Los Angeles Dodgers: 93-69

2. San Francisco Giants: 84-78

3. San Diego Padres: 82-80

4. Arizona Diamondbacks: 73-89

4. Colorado Rockies: 66-96

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be angling for a third consecutive National League West title in 2015. President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman and GM Farhan Zaidi have put the Dodgers in position to do just that by skillfully reshaping the roster via both the trade and free-agent markets.

The departures of Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez cost Los Angeles a lot of right-handed power, but the team's defense is now significantly stronger with Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick up the middle and Kemp removed from the outfield equation.

As was the case in 2014, the bullpen remains the club's potential downfall. Continuing to improve the relief corps is an issue the team's brain trust will have to address throughout the season.

Second place will belong to either the San Diego Padres or San Francisco Giants. As a a result of an incredibly busy offseason, the Padres have generated all sorts of buzz. Still, the edge has to go to the Giants, who have demonstrated an uncanny knack for just finding ways to win over the past five seasons.

Sure, the Padres ended the winter by adding James Shields to the mix, but the Giants could actually be adding a superior arm if Matt Cain's elbow is finally willing to cooperate. So far, the early results have been promising, as Cain explained via John Schlegel of MLB.com: "I feel really good. I've been on the mound a few times, and it's going really good."

Regardless of which team finishes in second place, both clubs will be in danger of missing out when October arrives because the NL Central and the NL East are crowded with wild-card contenders.

Thanks to the addition of the absurdly powerful Yasmany Tomas, the Arizona Diamondbacks should take a big step forward in 2015. In the desert, the central issue for the D-backs is the underwhelming starting staff. That's definitely the case for the Colorado Rockies as well.

Last season, Colorado's starters sported a 4.89 ERA, which was the worst mark in the NL, per MLB.com. The team hasn't done anything to address that glaring weakness, which means the Rockies are headed toward yet another train wreck.

Projected NL Central Final Standings

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1. St. Louis Cardinals: 90-72

2. Pittsburgh Pirates: 89-73

3. Chicago Cubs: 80-82

4. Milwaukee Brewers: 73-89

5. Cincinnati Reds: 72-90

Don't print the playoff tickets at Wrigley Field just yet.

With managerial wizard Joe Maddon in the dugout and staff ace Jon Lester atop the rotation, the Chicago Cubs are clearly trending upward. The problem for the Cubs is that the NL Central is the most loaded division in baseball.

The St. Louis Cardinals are the back-to-back champs in the Central, and the Pittsburgh Pirates have ripped off postseason appearances in each of the past two years. While both of those teams are mostly unchanged from a season ago, there are some serious questions that need to be answered.

For the Cardinals, the biggest concern is the health of Adam Wainwright's right elbow, which required surgery in October. For the Pirates, the team will have to prove it can keep rolling without the ridiculously valuable backstop Russell Martin.

Even though the Milwaukee Brewers have been remarkably quiet this offseason, the club should still be better than it was during its second-half face-plant. Still, based on the landscape of the division, a fourth-place finish is a very real possibility.

If the Cincinnati Reds end up in the tank early in 2015, Johnny Cueto will become one of the most popular names on the trade block. The right-hander is set to become a free agent next offseason and won't negotiate a new contract past Opening Day, according to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com.

Per Sheldon, President of Baseball Operations and GM Walt Jocketty admitted on MLB Network's Hot Stove show that it won't be easy to keep Cueto around: "With Johnny, we'll never say 'never.' We are going to do everything we can to try and come up with some sort of plan to keep him. I'm not sure we'll be able to, because the numbers are obviously starting to skyrocket…"

After Cueto put up a 20-9 record and a 2.25 ERA in 2014, his price tag has likely skyrocketed to the Lester level. Earlier this offseason, the lefty raked in a six-year, $155 million deal.

Projected NL East Final Standings

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1. Washington Nationals: 93-69

2. Miami Marlins: 88-74

3. New York Mets: 82-80

4. Atlanta Braves: 70-92

5. Philadelphia Phillies: 68-94

The Washington Nationals are just nasty.

The club isn't just the class of the NL East, but it's also the most imposing team in baseball. Everyone knows about Washington's rotation of aces, and neither the lineup nor the bullpen has any significant weaknesses. While the Nats are on track to claim a third division title in four seasons, the team won't be the only NL East squad playing in October.

Both the Miami Marlins and the pitching-rich New York Mets will be unexpected contenders for a wild-card spot. For now, the Fish are better positioned to snag an October berth, as the Mets offense remains suspect.

This winter, the Marlins have shored up the rotation by bringing in veterans Mat Latos and Dan Haren. Per Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, the Marlins could be getting Jose Fernandez back as soon as the middle of June.

Miami also has plenty of bats. Giancarlo Stanton gets all the headlines, but Marcell Ozuna is one of the rising stars in the game. Last year, the centerfielder cracked 23 home runs. Plus, the Marlins also have Dee Gordon to set the tone as the team's new leadoff man.

For the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves, this is a race to the bottom, as both teams have already given up on 2015. The most intriguing storylines for these clubs will be tracking just how many more players get jettisoned before the trade deadline.