Predicting the Combine Performances of the Top 2015 NFL Draft Prospects
It’s the time of the draft season when football skills take a back seat to 40-yard dash times. The 2015 NFL Scouting Combine, where the 2015 NFL draft’s top prospects will trade football pads for Under Armour and participate in a variety of measurable athletic tests, is just a few days away.
In all seriousness, the combine is an important and valuable part of the process. While it should only be a moderate factor for a player’s final draft stock, the combine presents a controlled environment to see how NFL hopefuls stack up against one another in size, strength, speed and agility.
Undeniably, the combine will be taken into account for all prospects, even those who have already proved on the gridiron that they are among the top talents in this year’s draft class.
Among the 323 players who earned tickets to Indianapolis for this year’s event, the following 18 are among the potential first-round picks who many will be keeping tabs on.
Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
1 of 18
40-Yard Dash: 4.53 seconds
Vertical Jump: 33.5”
Broad Jump: 10’
Three-Cone Drill: 6.80 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.15 seconds
Marcus Mariota should be among the top quarterback performers in every athletic drill at the combine, assuming he participates. A dynamic dual-threat signal-caller who ran for 2,237 yards in three collegiate seasons, Mariota shows great speed and lateral agility on tape for a quarterback.
The bigger question for Mariota is whether he will throw passes in Indianapolis. If you’re a bettor, the smart money would be on no, as Mariota likely has nothing to gain from doing so and is recovering from a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder.
Mariota himself confirmed he's on the fence about whether he should throw at the combine, via Dave Reardon of the Honolulu Star-Advertiser:
"Right now we're still making that decision, whether to throw at the combine. I had to kinda rest about a week-and-a-half. I sprained the AC joint. But now, I'm able to throw. Feels good."
Mariota’s combine performance is going to be overanalyzed, at least within the media realm, regardless of whether he throws. Ultimately, it’s not going to answer the questions scouts have about his ability to transition to a pro-style offense, even if he does put his arm talent on display.
Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2 of 18
40-Yard Dash: 4.65 seconds
Vertical Jump: 34.5”
Broad Jump: 9’8”
Three-Cone Drill: 7.10 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.20 seconds
Jameis Winston is more of a traditional pocket passer than a dual threat, but he still has enough athleticism to make plays on the run. He won’t run as fast as Mariota in the 40, but he’s still likely to finish in the top half among quarterbacks in athletic drills, assuming he decides to participate in them.
Like Mariota, the big decision for Winston is whether he should participate in the throwing session at the combine.
Winston has been training for the event with well-known quarterback guru George Whitfield, according to Natalie Pierre of AL.com, but he stands to gain little by passing at the combine. It will come as no surprise if Winston, a projected top-five overall pick, waits until his pro day to publicly display his arm talent again.
Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
3 of 18
40-Yard Dash: 4.41 seconds
Bench Press: 18 reps
Vertical Jump: 37”
Broad Jump: 11’
3-Cone Drill: 6.87 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.05 seconds
60-Yard Shuttle: 11.15 seconds
As Georgia running back Todd Gurley continues to recover from a torn ACL, the combine will be a prime opportunity for Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon to make his case for being the best running back in the draft class.
He should take advantage. An outstanding athlete who demonstrated a tremendous combination of acceleration, lateral agility and strength throughout his 2,587-yard, 29-touchdown junior season, Gordon should post excellent numbers in the measurable drills.
Scouts will be interested in getting official height and weight measurements for Gordon, who was listed at 6’1” and 213 pounds by Wisconsin. The area in which Gordon could most improve his draft stock at the combine, however, is pass-catching. His receiving ability remains in question after he caught just 22 passes in three full collegiate seasons.
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Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
4 of 18
40-Yard Dash: 4.45 seconds
Bench Press: 10 reps
Vertical Jump: 36.5”
Broad Jump: 10’6”
Three-Cone Drill: 6.75 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.05 seconds
60-Yard Shuttle: 11.10 seconds
Although Amari Cooper has been oft-projected as a top-five pick, many draft analysts believe that he does not stack up with Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans and Odell Beckham Jr., the top three wide receivers selected in the 2014 draft.
The combine will be Cooper’s chance to show that he does—at least athletically. His numbers in drills like the 40-yard dash, vertical jump and 20-yard shuttle will either validate or discredit opinions, like the one an AFC area scout said to Chase Goodbread of NFL.com, that Cooper is not as explosive as Watkins and Beckham.
A fast 40 could go a long way in Cooper’s quest to cement himself as the draft’s top wideout, but where he should really shine is in receiving drills, if he participates. While Cooper should be among the better performers in the speed and agility tests, his route-running ability and soft hands should stand out more.
DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
5 of 18
40-Yard Dash: 4.49 seconds
Bench Press: 14 reps
Vertical Jump: 39”
Broad Jump: 10’10”
Three-Cone Drill: 7.05 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.15 seconds
60-Yard Shuttle: 11.40 seconds
One of two wide receivers who poses a significant threat to Amari Cooper’s status as the top prospect at the position in this year’s draft, Louisville’s DeVante Parker could strengthen his case if he proves to be one of the most explosive wideouts at this year’s combine.
Listed at 6’3” and 211 pounds, Parker is a bigger receiver than Cooper, and his numbers in the speed tests will probably be a bit slower as a result. If Parker’s official measurements come in at those same marks, any 40-yard dash time under 4.5 seconds would bolster his draft stock.
Where Parker could be a top performer is in the leaping drills. Parker is known for high-pointing the ball, and that should be reflected in his vertical and broad jumps.
Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
6 of 18
40-Yard Dash: 4.53 seconds
Bench Press: 16 reps
Vertical Jump: 37.5”
Broad Jump: 10’4”
Three-Cone Drill: 7.07 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.20 seconds
60-Yard Shuttle: 11.45 seconds
According to Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller, NFL teams are starting to view West Virginia’s Kevin White, not Amari Cooper or DeVante Parker, as the “consensus No. 1 wide receiver in this class.” That very well might be the case after a breakout senior year in which White showed terrific ball skills and contested-catch ability, but he probably will not perform as well as Cooper and Parker at the combine.
There is a question of whether White will be healthy enough to fully participate in the combine; according to Yahoo Sports’ Eric Edholm, a “lingering ankle injury” kept him out of the Senior Bowl. Even if he is healthy, however, it would be a surprise if White runs a sub-4.5 40-yard dash, which Cooper and Parker are both likely capable of.
That said, anything below 4.6 seconds in the 40-yard dash will be fine for White if he measures in at or above his listed height and weight of 6’3” and 210 pounds. He should perform well in the vertical jump, an important drill for him as it directly ties to his ability to win in jump-ball situations.
Brandon Scherff, OT/G, Iowa
7 of 18
40-Yard Dash: 5.05 seconds
Bench Press: 32 reps
Vertical Jump: 31”
Broad Jump: 9’
Three-Cone Drill: 7.50 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.55 seconds
The best all-around offensive line prospect in this year’s draft, Iowa’s Brandon Scherff should have a solid if not spectacular workout at this year’s combine. A powerful blocker who moves his feet well, Scherff will likely be among the top performers in the bench press and should have respectable athletic marks across the board for an offensive lineman.
In the big picture, Scherff’s draft stock is not going to be determined by his 40 time or his vertical jump, considering his position will rarely if ever require him to run 40 yards or leap straight up in the air in an NFL game. Scouts will pay more attention to Scherff’s 10-yard split in the 40, along with how well he changes directions in on-field drills.
The most important measurement of the week for Scherff, however, might be one that you won’t even see on TV. His measured arm length will play a significant factor in whether teams project Scherff to continue playing offensive tackle in the NFL or to shift inside to the guard position.
La’el Collins, OT/G, LSU
8 of 18
40-Yard Dash: 5.25 seconds
Bench Press: 30 reps
Vertical Jump: 28.5”
Broad Jump: 8’8”
Three-Cone Drill: 7.75 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.60 seconds
Like Brandon Scherff, LSU’s La’el Collins is a potential top-10 draft pick, and he’s also considered a candidate to possibly convert to guard.
Scouts already have accurate measurements for Collins, who came in at 6’5” and 308 pounds with 10 3/4-inch hands, 33 1/4-inch arms and a 81 7/8-inch wingspan at the Senior Bowl. Athletically, it would be surprising if Collins is at the top of the charts among offensive tackles.
While Collins is a sound technician who packs a strong punch, his quickness does not appear to be outstanding on tape. That’s not to say his draft stock should plummet if his numbers are subpar at the combine, but this week could go a long way in whether scouts project Collins to be agile enough to continue playing left tackle in the NFL.
Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
9 of 18
40-Yard Dash: 5.00 seconds
Bench Press: 21 reps
Vertical Jump: 30”
Broad Jump: 9’3”
Three-Cone Drill: 7.40 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.55 seconds
One player who could come out of the combine with his stock on the rise is Andrus Peat, who projects to be a tackle only but is likely to be among the top testers at his position in Indianapolis.
Listed at 6’7” and 316 pounds by Stanford, Peat is likely to measure in as one of the longest players at this year’s combine. Peat also exhibits impressive athleticism on film and is likely to perform well in the on-field athletic tests.
One drill in which Peat probably won’t perform well, however, is the bench press. Players with long arms typically don’t, and a lack of power and strength is the biggest concern with Peat’s projection to the NFL.
Leonard Williams, DE/DT, USC
10 of 18
40-Yard Dash: 4.84 seconds
Bench Press: DNP
Vertical Jump: 35.5”
Broad Jump: 9’6”
Three-Cone Drill: 7.30 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.50 seconds
The most complete prospect in the 2015 draft class, Leonard Williams is likely to be among the stars of this year’s combine.
While Williams has the size of an interior defensive lineman, at 6’5” and 300 pounds, he moves like an edge defender. After playing all over the line of scrimmage at USC, Williams is likely to outperform most if not all defensive tackles in the measurable tests of athleticism.
According to Yahoo Sports’ Eric Edholm, Williams ran a 4.9-second 40-yard dash “the day he showed up, without any technique work or training,” so he’ll likely run a little faster than that in Indianapolis.
Williams might not be able to participate in the bench press, he told Edholm, because he is recovering from bilateral labrum tears in his shoulders. That will make the medical evaluation another important aspect of his days in Indianapolis.
Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida
11 of 18
40-Yard Dash: 4.60 seconds
Bench Press: 22 reps
Vertical Jump: 37.5”
Broad Jump: 10’6”
Three-Cone Drill: 7.10 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.28 seconds
Among prospects projected to be selected at the top of the draft, those who have the most riding on their combine performances might be the edge defenders. With a handful of 4-3 defensive ends/3-4 outside linebackers jockeying for position as potential top-10 picks, the combine will hold real value in comparing them.
On film, Florida’s Dante Fowler is the most impressive edge-rusher of the group. A terrific athlete, he could bolster his draft stock even higher by being one of the standouts of the combine.
Fowler flashes a tremendous combination of speed and agility and should be one of the top-performing defensive ends in all of the on-field athletic tests. His size measurements, particularly his arm length, will also be important to his draft stock. He was listed at 6’3” and 260 pounds by Florida.
Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
12 of 1840-Yard Dash: 4.58 seconds
Bench Press: 18 reps
Vertical Jump: 36.5”
Broad Jump: 10’4”
Three-Cone Drill: 7.06 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.25 seconds
Dante Fowler’s top competition to be the first edge defender selected is Nebraska’s Randy Gregory, who should go toe-to-toe with Fowler—and perhaps outperform him—in the combine’s athletic testing.
Like Fowler, Gregory has an explosive burst and lateral agility that stands out on the field. He should post outstanding numbers in the 40-yard dash, three-cone drill and 20-yard shuttle.
The biggest questions for Gregory going into the combine are his size and strength. He should measure in with great length, so a low number in the bench press would be excusable, but scouts will want to see added bulk from his listed weight of 240 pounds at Nebraska.
Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
13 of 18
40-Yard Dash: 4.60 seconds
Bench Press: 20 reps
Vertical Jump: 38”
Broad Jump: 10’6”
Three-Cone Drill: 7.16 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.28 seconds
Another pass-rushing specialist who is likely to perform well at the combine, Missouri’s Shane Ray is an athletic sack artist who will also be trying to establish himself as a top-10 pick in Indianapolis.
Included within the “Freaks” list compiled by Fox Sports’ Bruce Feldman prior to the start of this past college football season, Ray has reportedly posted a time as fast as 4.44 seconds in the 40-yard dash. That reported time will probably prove to be a bit fast compared to his official time in Indianapolis, but even so, he should be a top performer among defensive ends in most if not all athletic drills.
Like Gregory, the bigger questions Ray must answer at the combine pertain to his size and strength. Listed at 6’3” and 245 pounds, Ray is not as long as Gregory, and scouts will want to see him add some weight and perform well in the bench press without sacrificing his top-tier explosiveness.
Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
14 of 18
40-Yard Dash: 4.56 seconds
Bench Press: 18 reps
Vertical Jump: 39”
Broad Jump: 10’9”
Three-Cone Drill: 6.95 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.27 seconds
It should be clear to you by now that the defensive line workouts at the combine on Sunday, February 22, are ones you do not want to miss. Another projected first-round pick who is likely to perform very well in Indianapolis is Clemson’s Vic Beasley.
Listed at 6’3” and 235 pounds, Beasley could be set as a future linebacker by the time measurements are over, as he might not have enough size, length and strength to continue playing defensive end in the NFL like he did at Clemson.
Fortunately for Beasley, he has more than enough athleticism to make the transition. Explosive and nimble, Beasley could wow with his straight-line speed while also performing well in the leaping and agility drills.
Alvin Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky
15 of 18
40-Yard Dash: 4.66 seconds
Bench Press: 23 reps
Vertical Jump: 40”
Broad Jump: 10’9”
Three-Cone Drill: 7.26 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.30 seconds
While Vic Beasley, Dante Fowler and Randy Gregory will likely be in the combine’s first workout group of defensive linemen and Shane Ray will likely be in the second (because of alphabetical order), Kentucky’s Alvin Dupree is set to work out with the linebackers, even though he might be the largest of the five players.
Ultimately, Dupree’s numbers will be held in comparison with those edge defenders more than they will the other linebackers, but they should stack up well in both categories.
Another selection from Feldman’s preseason “Freaks” list, Dupree has reportedly recorded a 40.5-inch vertical jump and 11-foot broad jump; numbers even close to those could be bests among the defensive front seven. Dupree has not gotten as much attention as Fowler, Gregory, Ray and Beasley from the big-name draft analysts, but that could easily change after the combine.
Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
16 of 18
40-Yard Dash: 5.08 seconds
Bench Press: 35 reps
Vertical Jump: 29.5”
Broad Jump: 9’
Three-Cone Drill: 7.30 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.60 seconds
Danny Shelton has been frequently projected as a top-10 pick in mock drafts since the Senior Bowl, and the biggest reason for that is that he is a spectacular physical specimen. Although he is enormous, at nearly 6’2” and 343 pounds, Shelton should post some of the best numbers among defensive tackles at the combine.
In a highly productive senior year at Washington in which he recorded 93 total tackles and 16.5 tackles for loss, Shelton showed the athletic range to make plays all along the line of scrimmage. This should be reflected in his performance in the measurable drills, especially in the three-cone drill.
His arms only measured in at 31 3/4 inches at the Senior Bowl, which makes him relatively short-armed for a lineman, but that could be a boon for him in the bench press, where the massive and powerful defensive tackle is likely to be one of the combine’s top performers.
Shaq Thompson, OLB/SS, Washington
17 of 18
40-Yard Dash: 4.53 seconds
Bench Press: 25 reps
Vertical Jump: 39”
Broad Jump: 10’10”
Three-Cone Drill: 6.90 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.18 seconds
The most versatile player in the 2015 draft class, Shaq Thompson will work out with the linebackers but could post numbers that rival those of the top performers at safety and running back, positions he also played during his three-year Washington career.
Thompson, who recorded five career defensive touchdowns including four this past season alone, is a tremendous athletic specimen. His explosiveness should shine through in the 40-yard dash, vertical jump and broad jump.
Listed at 6’1” and 228 pounds by Washington, Thompson’s measurements at the combine might ultimately determine whether he is projected by NFL teams as a linebacker or safety. He should be strong enough and athletic enough to play either position.
Landon Collins, S, Alabama
18 of 18
40-Yard Dash: 4.51 seconds
Bench Press: 20 reps
Vertical Jump: 36”
Broad Jump: 10’
Three-Cone Drill: 7.00 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.13 seconds
60-Yard Shuttle: 11.40 seconds
The defensive backfield looks to be the weakest position area in this year’s draft class, with only a few players who are widely projected to be first-round picks. But the favorite to be the first pick among them is Alabama’s Landon Collins, who is in great position to be the No. 1 safety off the board this year.
A very good but not spectacular athlete, Collins’ 40-yard dash time will likely come in at close to 4.5 seconds. His numbers might not stand out among the defensive backs group as a whole, but he should show solid movement skills in the on-field drills if he participates.
It will also be important for Collins, who is more likely to be a closer-to-the-line strong safety than a deep free safety in the NFL, to display size and strength. Listed at 6’0” and 222 pounds by Alabama, Collins is a hard hitter who could be near the top of the charts for defensive backs in the bench press.
Dan Hope is an NFL/NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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