Predicting Where the Top NFL Free-Agent Quarterbacks Will Land

While the 2015 NFL free-agent class at quarterback isn't exactly inspiring (OK, that's an understatement), there are intriguing options to be found. And given that quarterback is the most important position in all of sports, it stands to reason that each of the top options will be pursued (some more vigorously than others) when the new league year opens on March 10.

In this column, we'll attempt to forecast the eventual homes for the eight top passers set to hit the market. It's important to remember that at this point in the offseason—the "dead' period between the Super Bowl and NFL Scouting Combine—predicting homes for eventual free agents is almost based on guesswork, so this should be treated as a loose guide for where each signal-caller might end up—not where he will end up.

We made these predictions based on a number of factors: economics, connections to coaches and the most important rationale of all—common sense.

Without further ado, here are the predictions for where the top NFL free-agent quarterbacks will land.

Jake Locker

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

Since he was selected with the eighth pick of the 2011 draft by the Tennessee Titans, quarterback Jake Locker has been nothing short of a massive bust.

While he possesses outstanding natural talent, he's also shown a disconcerting inability to stay healthy, missing 23 games over the last three seasons—including nine last year in what turned out to be a make-or-break campaign in the Music City.

Spoiler alert: It broke. 

Now, Locker—the owner of a career ratio of 27 touchdown passes to 22 interceptions—is set to hit the free-agent market, and while he hasn't yet harnessed his full potential, he represents an intriguing option because of his age (26) and physical prowess.

A report recently surfaced from Mark Eckel of NJ.com saying that Locker "could have a potential suitor" in the Eagles, but we don't buy that. It's not outside the realm of possibility, but it doesn't make a ton of sense for Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly to put all (or any of) his eggs into the basket of a reclamation project like Locker.

A likelier scenario sees Locker joining new Bills coach Rex Ryan in Buffalo. Think about it: Ryan hired former 49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman to the same post in western New York, and Locker provides a theoretical fit in Roman's offense, which was executed by two mobile passers out in the Bay Area—Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick.

Right now, Locker isn't close to being as good (or reliable) as either Smith or Kaepernick, but his tantalizing upside could entice Buffalo into bringing him in as legitimate competition for incumbent signal-caller EJ Manuel. And with the Bills not holding a first-round pick this year (thanks to last year's Sammy Watkins trade), it makes sense for Buffalo to acquire a quarterback via free agency.

Prediction: Locker signs with Buffalo

Mark Sanchez

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

The 2015 free-agent class at quarterback is spearheaded by Mark Sanchez. In a related story, the 2015 free-agent class at quarterback is a sham wrapped in a mockery, sprinkled with the tears of crestfallen football fans.

Last season, Sanchez went 4-4 as the starter in Philadelphia, tossing 14 touchdown passes against 11 interceptions. As has been his wont throughout his career, he was up and down, looking like a potential Pro Bowler on one play and an amalgamation of Blaine Gabbert and Brandon Weeden on the next.

But the fact remains that Sanchez has achieved success in his career—most notably guiding the Jets to back-to-back AFC Championship Games in 2009 and 2010 (his first two years in the league). Because of that, coaches will always see an opportunity to coax greatness out of the one-time first-round pick.

It's difficult to imagine Sanchez re-signing in Philadelphia, and don't you dare mention Buffalo as a potential landing spot. New Bills coach Rex Ryan should treat his former quarterback like Voldemort and never even mention his name aloud.

Another franchise, though, makes a lot of sense, and that's the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

According to the team website, the Bucs released last year's starter, Josh McCown (more on that later) on Wednesday, and the other option currently on the roster is Mike Glennon. The fact that Bucs coach Lovie Smith opted to play the 35-year-old McCown over the 25-year-old (and more talented) Glennon should tell you all you need to know about how the team views Glennon.

With that said, doesn't it make sense for the Bucs to try to move Glennon this offseason? There's no doubt he'd generate a solid amount of interest on the trade market, and it's clear that Smith has no use for him.

Tampa Bay also holds the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, and as ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter tweeted on Wednesday, the release of McCown makes it close to a lock that the team will use the selection on a quarterback—likely either Florida State's Jameis Winston or Oregon's Marcus Mariota.

That means the Bucs will need a solid veteran option to pair with their prized rookie, and Sanchez fits the bill. Plus, if said rookie falters or isn't ready, Sanchez would have an opportunity to start. 

Prediction: Signs with Buccaneers

Josh McCown

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

One of the easiest first guesses of last year's NFL offseason was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' signing quarterback Josh McCown and immediately anointing him as the starter. It was a move that smacked of incompetent decision-making from new coach Lovie Smith and general manager Jason Licht.

And in a not-so-stunning turn of events, McCown stunk the joint up—tossing 11 touchdown passes against 14 interceptions and going 1-10 as the starter—to "help" Tampa Bay go 2-14 and "earn" the No. 1 overall pick in this April's draft.

He was so hideous that not even Smith and general manager Jason Licht could justify keeping him, as the Buccaneers released McCown on Wednesday. Now, the 35-year-old journeyman finds himself in a familiar position: on the free-agent market.

Fortunately for McCown, one team out there makes a ton of sense as his future employer. That team? The Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens need a backup passer behind stalwart Joe Flacco, as longtime backup Tyrod Taylor is set to become a free agent—and to be fair, McCown would represent an upgrade over the untested Taylor. And more importantly, the man who coaxed the best play of McCown—recently deposed Bears coach Marc Trestman—was hired as Baltimore's new offensive coordinator.

If you look up the term "outlier" in the dictionary, we're pretty sure a picture of McCown's stats from 2013 (when he played under Trestman in Chicago) would stare you in the face. McCown tossed 13 touchdown passes against only one interception and became the toast of the Windy City. It makes sense for McCown to reunite with the coach whom he achieved the most success under.

This one is logical for both player and team. 

Prediction: Signs with Ravens

Brian Hoyer

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

Last year, Brian Hoyer went 7-6 as the starting quarterback of the Cleveland Browns, and while coach Mike Pettine eventually benched him due to a horrid late-season run, the fact remains that Hoyer showed he is capable of winning games at the NFL level.

Does that mean a team should sign Hoyer to be "the guy" and start all 16 games? Of course not. But he absolutely belongs on an NFL roster and has probably earned the opportunity to compete for a starting job.

We wouldn't bet on a return to Cleveland, which means Hoyer will have to seek opportunity elsewhere. One team that makes sense is the Houston Texans.

Hoyer played under Texans coach Bill O'Brien in New England. O'Brien clearly has a soft spot for Hoyer, having told David Jones of PennLive.com, "(Hoyer) was a really bright guy so, even in the beginning of mini-camp (in New England) when he didn’t actually know everything, he could picture the route in his mind and understand where the read started. That takes a really bright, creative mind to be able to do that.”

Last year, the Texans trotted out Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starter, which is the football equivalent of playing Russian roulette. It would behoove the team to move on from him.

Assuming that happens, it would open up an opportunity for Hoyer to step in and compete against rookie Tom Savage and (likely) another veteran—and do so under a coach he's familiar with.

Prediction: Signs with Texans

Ryan Mallett

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Last season, Ryan Mallett proved that he is not Bigfoot. He does, in fact, exist.

After failing to start a game in his first three NFL seasons—and throwing only four passes in regular-season action in that span—Mallett started two games for the Houston Texans last year, going 1-1 and looking like a decently competent option. Unfortunately, injury ended his season during the second start, or else we might have seen his full potential.

But alas, Mallett now finds himself set to hit the free-agent market. But thanks to his outstanding size (6'6", 240) and the Howitzer attached to his right arm, he should have no problems finding work.

And the team that makes the most sense for him to find that work is his current place of employment: Houston.

With Texans coach Bill O'Brien indicating that he expects a competition for the starting quarterback job this offseason, that would seem to be a positive for Mallett. The Texans already have soon-to-be second-year signal-caller Tom Savage, and if they go the route we discussed earlier—also bringing in free-agent passer Brian Hoyer—it would give the Texans two of O'Brien's former pupils in New England (Mallett and Hoyer) to go along with Savage.

Last year, Mallett finally showed he has the ability to play in the NFL, and he did so under the tutelage of O'Brien. If he's afforded the opportunity to return to Houston and compete for the starting job there, he should absolutely do so.

Prediction: Re-signs with Texans

Christian Ponder

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

The scene was Week 17 of the 2012 NFL season. The venue? Minnesota. It was there that then-second-year quarterback Christian Ponder orchestrated an upset of the rival Packers to send the Vikings to the postseason. After that game, it appeared as if the Vikings had located their franchise quarterback.

But as the great American author John Steinbeck wrote, the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry, and Ponder now finds himself on the free-agent scrap heap after two subpar seasons in Minnesota, floating like flotsam and jetsam amid the wreckage.

Since he piloted Minnesota to the postseason, Ponder is 2-7-1 as the starter and has tossed only seven touchdown passes to go along with 11 interceptions. And with Teddy Bridgewater emerging as "the guy" in Minnesota, Ponder is clearly done in the Twin Cities.

So which team would possibly bring in Ponder and let him compete for the starting job? Well, none. But one club stands above the rest as an intriguing option: the Green Bay Packers.

Yes, it's true that Ponder is 1-5 in his career against Green Bay (Week 17 in 2012 being the outlier), and Packers coach Mike McCarthy was present at all of those games. But Ponder seems to fit the physical profile of an Aaron Rodgers backup—meaning not very good and possessing questionable arm strength.

But Ponder was a first-round pick in the 2011 draft, so he has talent. And McCarthy could potentially see himself as the coach to coax it out of Ponder.

Prediction: Signs with Packers

Matt Moore

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

Miami Dolphins' soon-to-be free-agent quarterback Matt Moore represents a curious case.

Despite not having started a game since 2011, he's quite well regarded in NFL circles, and he raised eyebrows two years ago when he inked a two-year, $8 million contract to remain Ryan Tannehill's backup on South Beach. Moore could have potentially signed somewhere that offered an opportunity to start but chose the money and ended up tethered to the bench.

With the Dolphins possessing a precarious cap situation—and simultaneously looking to extend Tannehill—it doesn't make sense for the club to house a high-priced veteran backup. So it stands to reason that Moore won't be back in Miami next year.

A landing spot that makes sense for Moore is Chicago, where he'd reunite with his former coach in Carolina, John Fox. The Bears could use an upgrade behind starter Jay Cutler, and Moore—with his career ratio of 33 touchdown passes against 28 interceptions—presents a better option than incumbent Jimmy Clausen. 

Prediction: Signs with Bears

Colt McCoy

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Last season, Colt McCoy authored the finest moment of his professional career: guiding the Washington Redskins to an upset victory of the Cowboys in Dallas on Monday night in Week 8.

That prime-time triumph likely earned McCoy a few more years in the NFL, as words like "gritty" and "tough" became attached to him. So the question now becomes not if he'll play in 2015, but which team he will be play for.

The club that makes the most sense is his old one—the Redskins. While coach Jay Gruden would be insane to trot out McCoy as his starter, he did prove to be a capable backup, and with Robert Griffin III having struggled last year, the Redskins must make sure that they have a decent option behind Griffin.

McCoy is the kind of guy who can step in and get the job done if need be, and that's an important asset for every NFL team to possess. Plus, it's probably fair to say that Gruden trusts McCoy more than he does fellow backup Kirk Cousins. The Redskins shouldn't let McCoy get away.

Prediction: Re-signs with Redskins