Storylines to Follow in Serie A for Weekend of February 14
Another round of Serie A games is upon us, and there are lots of things to keep an eye on as the weekend moves forward.
The big clubs are all being presented with modest tests this week, so much of the intrigue is going to come from internal team issues and from a look to future fixtures.
What should we be watching for in Round 23? Read on to find out.
Pippo Watch
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AC Milan's struggles this season have prompted a deluge of rumors regarding the job security of Filippo Inzaghi.
After Saturday's loss to Juventus, Vice President and CEO Adriano Galliani was quoted by La Gazzetta dello Sport (h/t Football Italia) as saying team owner Silvio Berlusconi was "satisfied" with the team's performance and with Inzaghi as coach.
That hasn't stopped rumors from swirling about his potential replacement.
The latest reports, according to Tuttosport (h/t Football Italia), name Vincenzo Montella the club's top choice for a replacement. It will likely be a tough get, though. Fiorentina President Andrea Della Valle is in no mind to release his rising star. The same Football Italia report quoted the Viola boss as calling Montella "our future" in an interview with Radio Blu.
Inzaghi's future may be decided by Milan's next few fixtures. Their next four games will be against opponents Milan would normally be expected to beat: Empoli, Cesena, Chievo and Hellas Verona. Of those games, only the third will be away from home.
Winning those four games could give Milan momentum going into a tricky game at Fiorentina. If they come out of that positively, they could make a serious challenge for a place in the European qualification zone—especially if the results of the Coppa Italia put sixth place into play for qualification.
If Inzaghi manages to run the gauntlet against these teams he should be beating, he might put his team in position to save his job. If they falter here and fall down the table, it's unlikely he'll be coaching Milan next year.
Will Juve Get Caught Looking Ahead?
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Juventus have a seven-point lead over Roma and a soft schedule coming up. They also have a major fixture in slightly less than two weeks when Borussia Dortmund come calling for the first leg of the Champions League round of 16.
The German giants are struggling to avoid a relegation battle in the Bundesliga, but they were strong in the Champions League group stage, winning Group D over Arsenal on overall goal difference.
The Dortmund clash will be hugely important to the team's season, as will their next game—a league trip to the Stadio Olimpico that will be full of fire and could be the decisive contest of the race for the Scudetto.
With softer tests coming up in Cesena and Atalanta, it will be interesting to see if Massimiliano Allegri decides to rotate the squad with a view to the big week ahead—and if one the minnows can catch Juve thinking that far into the future.
Carlos Tevez is certain to be sitting out on Sunday due to yellow card accumulation. The team's attack is usually lacking something when he's out, but a Tevez-less Bianconeri side did beat Cesena 3-0 this September thanks to an Arturo Vidal brace. It remains to be seen what kind of circumstances might prompt Allegri to sit certain players against Atalanta.
If Juve maintain their seven-point cushion going into the match against Roma, a draw there could be sufficient to effectively lock up their fourth consecutive title. But if the Seahorses or La Dea manage to catch them napping in the next two weeks while they save their strength for their big week, Roma would go into March's game poised to make this season a dogfight finish.
Sunday evening will tell us just how focused they are on the present as opposed to the future.
Scandal Rears Its Head Again
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Match-fixing has again reared its head in Italy.
One hundred thirty people—including Italy head coach Antonio Conte—have been notified this week that they are under investigation in connection with the Calcioscommesse scandal of 2012.
The evidence against Conte is, to be frank, laughable. Football Italia's Susie Campanale sketched it out well in this 2012 blog post after the accusations broke.
It comes down to the word of one man, Filippo Carobbio—who had already been caught red-handed dealing with betting syndicates and was looking to make a deal—against that of Conte and the 24 other Siena players who were in the locker room when the coach allegedly told the team that the results of two dead-rubber games at the end of the 2010-11 Serie B season were secured.
Time will tell if this flimsy case can stand up in court.
Conte's plight, however, won't have as direct an impact on Serie A as those of two others implicated in the investigation. Lazio captain Stefano Mauri is once again under scrutiny for match-fixing, as is Atalanta coach Stefano Colantuono.
Mauri has been an important cog for sixth-placed Lazio. He's their joint top scorer, providing badly needed punch from the midfield after injury kept forward Filip Djordjevic off the field. Losing him—or having off-field issues disrupt his form—is the last thing the capital club, which have lost three of their last four, need.
Colantuono, on the other hand, is distinctive as the longest-tenured manager currently in Serie A. His team is scrapping at the bottom of the table—they're only two places and four points above the drop zone.
Colantuono guided Atalanta to instant promotion after their 2010 relegation and guided them to a comfortable mid-table finish the next season despite a six-point penalty that stemmed from the initial round of Calcioscommesse penalties. He's kept the Orobici solidly in the top flight the last five years, but this year, he may be facing a true relegation fight, and any disruption, especially for such an important figure, is going to be a major problem.
With Atalanta struggling against relegation and Lazio still very much in play for European qualification, a disruption for either side could be catastrophic.
Look for signs this week that either man is being affected by these distractions.
Europa Fever
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Of all the countries that began European competition in July, Italy is the only one that has all its participating clubs still active. Of those six teams, five of them will be back in European action a week from Thursday in the Europa League round of 32.
Roma, relegated from the Champions League after finishing third in their group, will face off against Dutch club Feyenoord. Torino got a tough draw against Athletic Bilbao, Napoli go to Turkey against Trabzonspor, and Fiorentina and Inter were stuck with difficult tasks when they were paired with Tottenham Hotspur and Celtic, respectively.
The Europa League has traditionally been regarded as a nuisance by Italian clubs. This needs to change if Italy is going to gain ground on Germany to regain third place in the UEFA coefficient rankings—and regain a fourth spot in the Champions League.
Fortunately, UEFA sweetened the pot for Europa League competitors this season. Starting this year, the winner of the competition will qualify for the Champions League. Winning the final would pass them straight to next year's playoff round. If Juventus manage to pull a major upset and win Europe's top prize, an Italian Europa champ would qualify directly for the lucrative group stage.
This added carrot will likely push the five Italian representatives—especially Lazio, Inter and Torino, who are unlikely to make the top three—to a higher level of effort.
It will be interesting to see if coaches decide to rest players with an eye toward Thursday's fixtures. Roma could very well field a B team against stricken Parma. The other teams will be playing games that will likely be far more competitive, and it will be interesting to see how the clubs balance the need for domestic points with the desire to be fresh for Europe—and how that may affect the races for the title and for the top five.
