Contender or Pretender for Every Fringe MLB Playoff Team Entering 2015
Now that James Shields has finally decided where he'll be playing in 2015, we can more or less put a bow on the 2015 MLB offseason, a little more than a week from when pitchers and catchers will start reporting to spring training.
With a clear idea of how all 30 rosters will now look for the upcoming season, we begin to get an idea of who the leading contenders are in each league and which teams are playing for 2016 and beyond.
However, there are also a handful of middle-of-the-pack teams (12 by my count) that could go either way this coming year, as they appear to be on the fringe of contention at this point.
What follows is a closer look at those 12 teams and my take on whether they will be contenders or pretenders in 2015.
Note: Projected 25-man rosters have been included for each team. Players listed in bold indicate offseason additions. Players listed in italics indicate non-roster invitees to spring training.
Consensus Contenders and Non-Contenders
1 of 13
Consensus Contenders (AL)
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners
Toronto Blue Jays
Consensus Contenders (NL)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals
Washington Nationals
Non-Contenders
Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves
Colorado Rockies
Houston Astros
Minnesota Twins
Philadelphia Phillies
Chicago Cubs
2 of 13
Projected 25-Man Roster
| C Miguel Montero | LHP Jon Lester |
| 1B Anthony Rizzo | RHP Jake Arrieta |
| 2B Javier Baez | RHP Jason Hammel |
| 3B Mike Olt | LHP Travis Wood |
| SS Starlin Castro | RHP Kyle Hendricks |
| LF Chris Coghlan | Bullpen |
| CF Dexter Fowler | RHP Jacob Turner |
| RF Jorge Soler (R) | LHP Tsuyoshi Wada |
| Bench | RHP Jason Motte |
| C David Ross | LHP Felix Doubront |
| IF Tommy La Stella | RHP Neil Ramirez |
| IF/OF Arismendy Alcantara | RHP Pedro Strop |
| OF Chris Denorfia | RHP Hector Rondon |
| OF Ryan Sweeney |
Contender or Pretender?: Contender
Three seasons into the oft-mentioned "Theo Epstein Era," and it's fair to say the Chicago Cubs are a completely different team than the one Epstein inherited shortly after the 2011 MLB season wrapped up.
The team has begun to reap the rewards of a farm system many consider to be the best in baseball, and plenty more talent is on the way, headlined by uber-prospects Kris Bryant and Addison Russell.
Finally looking to buy this offseason, the Cubs landed their top target in Jon Lester, giving them the ace they needed to anchor their young rotation. They didn't stop there, though, as they also acquired Miguel Montero and Dexter Fowler via trade, and re-signed veteran starter Jason Hammel.
There will be growing pains, but there is no ignoring the overall talent this team possesses heading into the season. It may still be another year or two before the Cubs legitimately contend for a division title, but a run at a wild-card spot seems well within reach for the upcoming season.
Chicago White Sox
3 of 13
Projected 25-Man Roster
| C Tyler Flowers | LHP Chris Sale |
| 1B Jose Abreu | RHP Jeff Samardzija |
| 2B Carlos Sanchez (R) | LHP Jose Quintana |
| 3B Conor Gillaspie | LHP John Danks |
| SS Alexei Ramirez | RHP Hector Noesi |
| LF Melky Cabrera | Bullpen |
| CF Adam Eaton | RHP Maikel Cleto |
| RF Avisail Garcia | LHP Dan Jennings |
| DH Adam LaRoche | RHP Javy Guerra |
| Bench | LHP Zach Duke |
| C Geovany Soto | RHP Jake Petricka |
| IF Gordon Beckham | RHP Zach Putnam |
| IF/OF Emilio Bonifacio | RHP David Robertson |
| OF J.B. Shuck |
Contender or Pretender?: Contender
It's fair to say the San Diego Padres have added more talent than any other team this offseason, but the Chicago White Sox are a close second, and they didn't surrender much in the way of young talent to do it.
Offensively, Melky Cabrera should be a nice upgrade over the left field platoon of Alejandro De Aza and Dayan Viciedo, while Adam LaRoche gives the team a left-handed power bat to protect Jose Abreu in the middle of the order. A healthy Avisail Garcia can also be counted as an addition, after he played just 46 games last year.
The bullpen, which ranked 28th in the league last year with a 4.38 ERA and converted just 36-of-57 save chances, figures to be significantly improved with the addition of All-Star closer David Robertson and a pair of quality lefties in Zach Duke and Dan Jennings.
However, the biggest addition of all might be Jeff Samardzija, who gives the team a front-line right-hander to slot between southpaws Chris Sale and Jose Quintana at the top of the rotation. That may be the best starting pitching trio in the American League, and it's something the South Siders should be able to lean on in 2015.
Granted the back end of the rotation is a question, albeit one that could be answered by the emergence of top prospect Carlos Rodon. The bottom of the lineup also figures to be relatively weak.
That being said, this team has as much talent as any in the AL Central, it's just a matter of putting the pieces together. A division title is within reach after their aggressive offseason.
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Cincinnati Reds
4 of 13
Projected 25-Man Roster
| C Devin Mesoraco | RHP Johnny Cueto |
| 1B Joey Votto | RHP Homer Bailey |
| 2B Brandon Phillips | RHP Mike Leake |
| 3B Todd Frazier | LHP Tony Cingrani |
| SS Zack Cozart | RHP Anthony DeSclafani (R) |
| LF Marlon Byrd | Bullpen |
| CF Billy Hamilton | LHP Paul Maholm |
| RF Jay Bruce | RHP Burke Badenhop |
| Bench | RHP Jumbo Diaz |
| C Brayan Pena | RHP J.J. Hoover |
| IF/OF Skip Schumaker | LHP Manny Parra |
| IF/OF Kris Negron | RHP Sam LeCure |
| OF Brennan Boesch | LHP Aroldis Chapman |
| OF Donald Lutz |
Contender or Pretender?: Pretender
The 2014 season was a trying one for the Cincinnati Reds, as injury-plagued seasons from Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips, as well as a shaky bullpen, left them a distant fourth in the NL Central. That after the team had won 90-plus games in three of the previous four seasons.
Keeping Votto on the field, as well as getting Jay Bruce back on track after the worst offensive seasons of his career, will be key if they are going to have any chance of turning things around.
The starting rotation was the one clear strength a year ago, as the team ranked third in the league with a 3.37 starter's ERA, but upcoming free agency forced its hand this winter, and it traded both Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon.
Those losses, coupled with some expected regression from Johnny Cueto, (3.30 FIP, .238 BABIP via FanGraphs), leave the rotation looking slightly above average at best for the upcoming year.
The offense should be better, simply because it can't get much worse than it was in 2014, when it hit .238 with a .661 OPS and was one of three teams to score less than 600 runs (595). How much better remains to be seen.
If everything breaks right, the Reds could bounce back and contend in 2015. However, a last-place finish in the NL Central also seems like a very real possibility, given the overall talent of the division's four other teams. That makes it hard to consider them anything but a pretender at this point.
Cleveland Indians
5 of 13
Projected 25-Man Roster
| C Yan Gomes | RHP Corey Kluber |
| 1B Carlos Santana | RHP Carlos Carrasco |
| 2B Jason Kipnis | RHP Danny Salazar |
| 3B Lonnie Chisenhall | RHP Gavin Floyd |
| SS Jose Ramirez | RHP Trevor Bauer |
| LF Michael Brantley | Bullpen |
| CF Michael Bourn | LHP Nick Hagadone |
| RF Brandon Moss | RHP Zach McAllister |
| DH Nick Swisher | LHP Kyle Crockett |
| Bench | RHP Scott Atchison |
| C Roberto Perez | LHP Marc Rzepczynski |
| IF Mike Aviles | RHP Bryan Shaw |
| OF David Murphy | RHP Cody Allen |
| OF Ryan Raburn |
Contender or Pretender?: Pretender
The Cleveland Indians used a strong second half to make things interesting down the stretch last year, before eventually finishing the season in third place in the AL Central at 85-77.
The starting rotation was the big question mark in the first half, and it was the driving force after the break, as Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and T.J. House emerged behind Corey Kluber to give the team what was the best starting pitching in baseball in the second half.
The question now is just how good Carrasco and Salazar can be over a full season, as they have shown nothing in the way of consistency to this point in their careers. Gavin Floyd was signed to provide some veteran depth, but big picture this looked like a team that needed a proven No. 2 starter to slot behind Kluber.
Offensively, new addition Brandon Moss should help add some pop to the lineup, but he's something of a redundant piece with Nick Swisher on the roster. A bounce-back season from Jason Kipnis would be huge, as would some sort of production from the high-priced duo of Swisher and Michael Bourn.
With the Chicago White Sox improving greatly and both the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals still looking strong, it's surprising the Indians weren't more active this offseason, as they have a talented team.
At the end of the day, they look like a fringe team once again, unless the starting pitching can duplicate its second-half performance over a full season, and that's an awfully big "if" to be relying on. Another 85-77 finish would not be the least bit surprising.
Kansas City Royals
6 of 13
Projected 25-Man Roster
| C Salvador Perez | RHP Yordano Ventura |
| 1B Eric Hosmer | LHP Jason Vargas |
| 2B Omar Infante | RHP Edinson Volquez |
| 3B Mike Moustakas | RHP Jeremy Guthrie |
| SS Alcides Escobar | LHP Danny Duffy |
| LF Alex Gordon | Bullpen |
| CF Lorenzo Cain | RHP Yohan Pino |
| RF Alex Rios | RHP Luke Hochevar |
| DH Kendrys Morales | LHP Tim Collins |
| Bench | RHP Jason Frasor |
| C Erik Kratz | RHP Kelvin Herrera |
| IF Christian Colon | RHP Wade Davis |
| OF Jarrod Dyson | RHP Greg Holland |
| OF Moises Sierra |
Contender or Pretender?: Contender
The Kansas City Royals are probably not a better team heading into 2015 than the one that made a surprise run to the World Series last year, but they have a chance to be just as good.
Swapping out Billy Butler and Nori Aoki for Kendrys Morales and Alex Rios can probably be considered a wash for the time being, though Rios will be one to watch, as some positive regression can be expected from a power standpoint after he posted a 2.9 percent HR/FB rate last year (via FanGraphs).
Signing Edinson Volquez to replace James Shields looks to be a clear step back for the starting rotation, but Yordano Ventura is more than capable of taking another step forward and emerging in the role of staff ace, and the rotation remains deep as a whole.
All of that said, this is still a team built around speed, defense and a nasty bullpen, and those three areas all look to be a strength once again.
In fact, the bullpen could conceivably be even better with a full season of Jason Frasor and a healthy Luke Hochevar, though expecting Wade Davis to duplicate his historic season may be asking a little much.
They're not the most talented team in the AL Central by any means, but they know how to win games with the strengths they do have, and they should be right in the thick of things once again.
Miami Marlins
7 of 13
Projected 25-Man Roster
| C Jarrod Saltalamacchia | RHP Henderson Alvarez |
| 1B Michael Morse | RHP Mat Latos |
| 2B Dee Gordon | RHP Jarred Cosart |
| 3B Martin Prado | RHP Tom Koehler |
| SS Adeiny Hechavarria | LHP Brad Hand |
| LF Christian Yelich | Bullpen |
| CF Marcell Ozuna | RHP David Phelps |
| RF Giancarlo Stanton | LHP Andrew McKirahan (R) |
| Bench | RHP Aaron Crow |
| C Jeff Mathis | RHP Bryan Morris |
| 1B Justin Bour (R) | LHP Mike Dunn |
| IF Donovan Solano | RHP A.J. Ramos |
| IF/OF Jeff Baker | RHP Steve Cishek |
| OF Ichiro Suzuki |
Contender or Pretender?: Contender
The Miami Marlins began the offseason by handing a record $325 million extension to slugger Giancarlo Stanton, and it quickly became clear that this was a franchise with a newfound dedication to putting a winning product on the field.
A completely overhauled infield, outside of shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria, should help an offense that will again be anchored by arguably the most productive outfield in all of baseball. Locking up Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna also appears to be on the to-do list, though nothing has come to fruition just yet.
The starting rotation will be without ace Jose Fernandez until at least June, as he continues to recovery from Tommy John surgery, but Mat Latos was acquired from the Cincinnati Reds to help bridge the gap until his returns.
The No. 5 starter job is up for grabs until he returns, with left-hander Brad Hand looking like the leading candidate if veteran Dan Haren does in fact decide to retire. That looks like a weak spot, but acquiring David Phelps to serve as the long reliever could help in that area.
This is a Marlins team that was 71-74 last season when Giancarlo Stanton went down with a season-ending injury, then stumbled to a 6-11 finish to close out the year. That's just a year removed from a 100-loss campaign, as they've come a long way in a very short period of time.
With an improved offensive attack to match their quality pitching, they look like the second-best team in the NL East heading into the year and legitimate wild-card contenders once again.
Milwaukee Brewers
8 of 13
Projected 25-Man Roster
| C Jonathan Lucroy | RHP Matt Garza |
| 1B Adam Lind | RHP Wily Peralta |
| 2B Scooter Gennett | RHP Kyle Lohse |
| 3B Aramis Ramirez | RHP Mike Fiers |
| SS Jean Segura | RHP Jimmy Nelson |
| LF Khris Davis | Bullpen |
| CF Carlos Gomez | RHP Tyler Thornburg |
| RF Ryan Braun | RHP Jeremy Jeffress |
| Bench | RHP Brandon Kintzler |
| C Martin Maldonado | LHP Neal Cotts |
| IF Hector Gomez | RHP Jim Henderson |
| IF Luis Jimenez | LHP Will Smith |
| OF Gerardo Parra | RHP Jonathan Broxton |
| OF Logan Schafer |
Contender or Pretender?: Pretender
From the fifth game of the season until the final day of August, the Milwaukee Brewers held at least a share of the NL Central division lead, but a 1-13 stretch to close out August and begin September was the beginning of the end.
Gone from last year's team are Yovani Gallardo, Francisco Rodriguez, Zach Duke, Tom Gorzelanny and the first base platoon of Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay.
While first base appears to be improved with the addition of Adam Lind, the rotation will be counting on 25-year-old Jimmy Nelson to replace Gallardo, and the bullpen as a whole appears weaker with Neal Cotts the only notable addition to offset those three losses.
The Brewers got off to a blistering 20-8 start last season thanks to their pitching staff, but things quickly leveled off from there, and they went 62-72 the rest of the way.
Without that running start, chances are they would not have sat atop the NL Central standings as long as they did, and it's hard to see them shooting out of the gates in similar fashion in 2015.
They should be able to hover around .500 once again, as there is no glaring weakness on the roster, but there are undoubtedly more talented and more experienced teams in the NL Central and the National League as a whole.
New York Mets
9 of 13
Projected 25-Man Roster
| C Travis d'Arnaud | RHP Matt Harvey |
| 1B Lucas Duda | RHP Jake deGrom |
| 2B Daniel Murphy | LHP Jon Niese |
| 3B David Wright | RHP Bartolo Colon |
| SS Wilmer Flores | RHP Zack Wheeler |
| LF Curtis Granderson | Bullpen |
| CF Juan Lagares | RHP Dillon Gee |
| RF Michael Cuddyer | LHP Sean Gilmartin (R) |
| Bench | RHP Carlos Torres |
| C Anthony Recker | RHP Vic Black |
| 1B/OF John Mayberry | LHP Josh Edgin |
| IF Ruben Tejada | RHP Jeurys Familia |
| OF Matt den Dekker | RHP Jenrry Mejia |
| OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis |
Contender or Pretender?: Contender
On the strength of their starting pitching alone I call the New York Mets a contender, but it's with some significant reservations.
Expecting Matt Harvey to return to his 2013 form in his first season back from Tommy John surgery is foolish, but the starting pitching pool as a whole is incredibly deep and talented, and it's something the team should be able to count on all season.
The offense is still a big question mark though, and enough of one that I went back and forth between "contender" and "pretender" more than once.
Can Michael Cuddyer stay healthy? Will David Wright return to superstar form? Is Juan Lagares a viable leadoff option? Can Wilmer Flores handle everyday shortstop duties?
All significant questions, and all important components of the upcoming season if the Mets expect to have a legitimate chance of contending.
Personally, I think it's the 2016 version of this team that fans should be excited about, but there is enough talent on this year's roster that the Mets should be in the mix for a wild-card berth.
New York Yankees
10 of 13
Projected 25-Man Roster
| C Brian McCann | RHP Masahiro Tanaka |
| 1B Mark Teixeira | LHP CC Sabathia |
| 2B Stephen Drew | RHP Michael Pineda |
| 3B Chase Headley | RHP Nathan Eovaldi |
| SS Didi Gregorius | LHP Chris Capuano |
| LF Brett Gardner | Bullpen |
| CF Jacoby Ellsbury | RHP Esmil Rogers |
| RF Carlos Beltran | LHP Chasen Shreve |
| DH Garrett Jones | RHP Adam Warren |
| Bench | LHP Justin Wilson |
| C Austin Romine | RHP David Carpenter |
| 3B Alex Rodriguez | LHP Andrew Miller |
| IF Brendan Ryan | RHP Dellin Betances |
| OF Chris Young |
Contender or Pretender?: Pretender
The New York Yankees spent roughly $500 million last offseason in an effort to bounce back from a disappointing 2013, and the result was the team's first back-to-back missed postseasons since 1992 and 1993.
That was enough for them to take a step back this offseason, opting against making any splash signings and instead focusing on bringing back guys like Chase Headley, Chris Capuano and Stephen Drew, and significantly upgrading the bullpen.
Even with closer David Robertson gone in free agency, the Yankees bullpen looks like a serious weapon heading into 2015, provided Dellin Betances is up to the task in the ninth-inning role.
However, the starting rotation is far from a strength with Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia and Michael Pineda all facing significant injury questions, and Capuano a less-than-inspiring option to round out the staff.
As a whole this is a team that appears to be lacking in depth, as the farm system is improved, but much of the young talent is still a couple years off. Given the advanced age of much of the team's roster, injuries are going to be something it has to deal with once again, and it simply doesn't look like a team with the depth to do that.
Oakland Athletics
11 of 13
Projected 25-Man Roster
| C Stephen Vogt | RHP Sonny Gray |
| 1B Ike Davis | LHP Scott Kazmir |
| 2B Ben Zobrist | RHP Jesse Hahn |
| 3B Brett Lawrie | LHP Drew Pomeranz |
| SS Marcus Semien | RHP Jesse Chavez |
| LF Sam Fuld | Bullpen |
| CF Coco Crisp | RHP Evan Scribner |
| RF Josh Reddick | RHP R.J. Alvarez (R) |
| DH Billy Butler | LHP Eric O'Flaherty |
| Bench | RHP Dan Otero |
| C Josh Phegley | LHP Fernando Abad |
| 1B/OF Mark Canha (R) | RHP Ryan Cook |
| IF Eric Sogard | RHP Tyler Clippard |
| OF Craig Gentry |
Contender or Pretender?: Contender
According to a tweet from Jane Lee of MLB.com, a grand total of four players on the Oakland Athletics 40-man roster are homegrown heading into the 2015 season, with a whopping 28 of them acquired via trade.
While this was by far the most drastic, this is by no means the first significant roster overhaul Billy Beane has undergone during his time as the team's general manager, and the team has managed to stay competitive in the past.
The offense is banking on guys like Ike Davis and Brett Lawrie playing up to their potential, veteran Billy Butler bouncing back from his least productive season and young guys like Marcus Semien and Mark Canha stepping into significant roles.
The starting rotation is strong at the top with Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir, and the team has enough depth to piece things together behind them after acquiring Jesse Hahn, Chris Bassitt, Sean Nolin and Kendall Graveman this offseason. The A's should also have Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin back at some point in the first half.
This may not be the prettiest team on paper, but it's the kind of team the A's have proven more than capable of winning with in the past. It's easy to say they're not as good as they were a year ago, but it's also hard to bet against them contending once again with their new-look roster.
Tampa Bay Rays
12 of 13
Projected 25-Man Roster
| C Rene Rivera | RHP Alex Cobb |
| 1B James Loney | LHP Drew Smyly |
| 2B Nick Franklin | RHP Chris Archer |
| 3B Evan Longoria | RHP Jake Odorizzi |
| SS Asdrubal Cabrera | RHP Alex Colome |
| LF Steven Souza (R) | Bullpen |
| CF Desmond Jennings | RHP Kirby Yates |
| RF Mikie Mahtook (R) | RHP Jose Dominguez |
| DH John Jaso | RHP Ernesto Frieri |
| Bench | LHP Jeff Beliveau |
| C Curt Casali (R) | RHP Brad Boxberger |
| IF/OF Logan Forsythe | RHP Kevin Jepsen |
| OF David DeJesus | RHP Grant Balfour |
| OF Brandon Guyer |
Contender or Pretender?: Pretender
Already the worst offensive team in the American League last year, the Tampa Bay Rays said goodbye to three of their most productive offensive players this offseason when they traded away Ben Zobrist, Wil Myers and Matt Joyce.
Granted Rene Rivera and Asdrubal Cabrera both figure to be upgrades offensively at their respective positions, but this still looks to be arguably the worst offensive team in baseball heading into 2015, and one that figures to have a lot of trouble protecting star Evan Longoria.
The onus will fall on young players like Steven Souza, Mikie Mahtook, Brandon Guyer, Nick Franklin and others to pick up the slack at the plate, and counting on them to do so may not be enough to hang around in the AL East.
The starting rotation figures to again be one of the best in all of baseball, even without David Price in the mix, and once Matt Moore returns from Tommy John surgery, the Rays could legitimately boast the best staff in the American League.
Still, it's awfully hard to win when you can't consistently score runs, and that looks like something this team is going to have a hard time doing in 2015.
Texas Rangers
13 of 13
Projected 25-Man Roster
| C Robinson Chirinos | RHP Yu Darvish |
| 1B Prince Fielder | LHP Derek Holland |
| 2B Rougned Odor | RHP Yovani Gallardo |
| 3B Adrian Beltre | RHP Colby Lewis |
| SS Elvis Andrus | LHP Ross Detwiler |
| LF Ryan Rua | Bullpen |
| CF Leonys Martin | RHP Nick Tepesch |
| RF Shin-Soo Choo | RHP Roman Mendez |
| DH Mitch Moreland | LHP Alex Claudio (R) |
| Bench | RHP Shawn Tolleson |
| C Carlos Corporan | RHP Kyuji Fujikawa |
| IF Adam Rosales | RHP Tanner Scheppers |
| OF Kyle Blanks | RHP Neftali Feliz |
| OF Delino DeShields (R) |
Contender or Pretender?: Contender
The Texas Rangers entered the 2014 season with legitimate aspirations to contend, but instead they were absolutely decimated by injuries and found themselves in the AL West cellar when all was said and done.
Healthy seasons from Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo and Derek Holland would trump any additions they've made this offseason. Those three combined for just 1.4 WAR last season, after the trio was good for 9.5 WAR in 2013.
Adding Yovani Gallardo alongside Yu Darvish and Holland gives the team one of the better starting pitching trios in all of baseball, and adding Ross Detwiler to round out the rotation was a nice under-the-radar move as well.
Left field looks to be a wide-open competition heading into spring training, and the bullpen has plenty of question marks at the back end, but this team looks to be better than last year's version pre-injury.
The Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners are looking like two of the better teams in the American League, and the AL West as a whole is incredibly talented, but the Rangers should have a chance of landing a postseason spot if they can avoid the injury bug.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
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