2016 MLB Free Agents Under the Most Pressure Entering 2015
As the 2015 MLB offseason winds to a close, it's never too early to start looking ahead to what is expected to be a deep crop of talent on the free-agent market next winter.
The market for starting pitching looks particularly stacked, with the likes of David Price, Jordan Zimmermann, Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Jeff Samardzija, Rick Porcello and Doug Fister highlighting a deep group of front-line arms.
On the offensive side of things, outfielders Justin Upton and Jason Heyward and shortstop Ian Desmond are the marquee names, with guys like Matt Wieters, Yoenis Cespedes and Ben Zobrist also expected to fetch big money.
However, the following is not intended to be a simple rundown of the 2016 MLB free-agent class. Instead, it's a quick look at the five upcoming free agents who are under the most pressure heading into the 2015 season.
These five guys all have significant question marks for one reason or another, but with strong showings this coming year they could set themselves up for big paydays next winter.
SP Hisashi Iwakuma
1 of 5
The three-year, $20 million deal the Seattle Mariners gave Hisashi Iwakuma following the 2012 season has proven to be an absolute steal so far, but there are questions about the right-hander heading into the upcoming campaign.
After finishing third in AL Cy Young voting in 2013, when he went 14-6 with a 2.66 ERA, Iwakuma had what looks at first glance like another strong season this past year. He wrapped up the year at 15-9 with a 3.52 ERA.
But he absolutely collapsed down the stretch, posting a 7.88 ERA over his final seven starts.
While he's been in the league just three years, he's by no means young: He's heading into his age-34 season after spending 11 seasons pitching in the Japanese League.
The Mariners are counting on him to help lead the team to a postseason berth, but on a personal level his performance this season figures to be the difference between a lucrative multiyear deal and a significantly smaller next contract.
C Alex Avila
2 of 5
Alex Avila looked like the league's next star catcher when he hit .295/.389/.506 with 33 doubles and 19 home runs as a 24-year-old back in 2011.
However, he's failed to come anywhere near that level of offensive production in the three seasons since, hitting a combined .229/.333/.373 and averaging just 19 doubles and 10 home runs per year.
Thanks to his defensive skills, he has still been a 5.5 WAR player over that span, and he does still have decent on-base skills. But he's far from the player many expected him to be following his breakout performance.
All of that said, if Matt Wieters opts to re-sign with the Baltimore Orioles, Avila figures to be the best catcher on the free-agent market next offseason.
He won't come close to the five-year, $82 million deal Russell Martin landed this winter, but an uptick in his offensive numbers could still result in a nice multiyear deal for Avila.
SP Justin Masterson
3 of 5
One of the more intriguing buy-low arms on the market this offseason, Justin Masterson will be looking to boost his free-agent value after signing a one-year, $9.5 million deal with the Boston Red Sox.
An All-Star in 2013 when he went 14-10 with a 3.45 ERA and 195 strikeouts in 193 innings, Masterson turned down a three-year, $45 million extension from the Cleveland Indians last spring, hoping to instead cash in with a longer deal in the offseason.
In hindsight, he probably should have signed that deal, as he went 7-9 with a 5.88 ERA (4.50 FIP) last season, joining the St. Louis Cardinals at the trade deadline but struggling to the point that he was left off the postseason roster.
The 29-year-old has the stuff to bounce back, and injuries did play a part in his 2014 struggles, so a healthy Masterson could yet receive that big payday he was hoping for this winter.
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SP Tim Lincecum
4 of 5
It's not all that long ago that Tim Lincecum was one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he enters the final year of his current contract with plenty of questions surrounding his future.
From 2008-11, Lincecum went 62-36 with a 2.81 ERA, 1.173 WHIP and 977 strikeouts in 881.2 innings of work, winning NL Cy Young honors in 2008 and 2009 and finishing in the top 10 in voting the other two years.
However, he's gone just 32-38 with a 4.76 ERA (4.05 FIP) over the past three seasons. He lost his rotation spot down the stretch last year and was relegated 1.2 innings of relief work out of the bullpen in the postseason.
He's still shown flashes of dominance during that span, including a pair of no-hitters, but it's fairly clear he's not the pitcher he once was.
Set to earn $18 million this coming season, he'll get every chance to beat out Ryan Vogelsong and Yusmeiro Petit for the final spot in the Giants rotation.
A good season in the rotation could earn him another multiyear deal, but a full-time move to the bullpen could mean a significantly smaller paycheck once he hits the open market next winter.
1B Chris Davis
5 of 5
It's a shame for his sake that Chris Davis didn't hit free agency after his monster 2013 campaign, as he almost certainly would have seen a payday north of $100 million last offseason.
Instead, he took a huge step backward in 2014, hitting just .196/.300/.404 with 26 home runs and 72 RBI. On top of that, he capped off his disappointing season with a 25-game suspension for using Adderall without league approval.
For what it's worth, he has received an exemption for the upcoming season, according to Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun, but it was a rough way to finish nonetheless.
Chances are he will never repeat his 53-homer, 103-RBI performance again, but he's still capable of more than he showed last year, and landing somewhere around his 2012 numbers of an .827 OPS and 33 home runs is certainly possible.
If he can bounce back to that level of production, a big payday could still be waiting for him.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.
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