Playing Fact or Fiction with All of MLB's Pre-Spring Training Buzz
Winter continues its unrelenting onslaught, yet MLB pitchers and catchers are a week away from reporting.
Even spring training starts before the season officially changes, but no fans will complain about baseball returning as soon as possible. For months, they have received nothing but transactions and rumors to assuage their appetite. Although those days will soon transition to actual action, hang in there for a while longer.
James Shields finally filled a massive piece to the offseason puzzle, agreeing to a four-year deal with the San Diego Padres. Taking the last star commodity off the free-agent market directs the spotlight to trade discussions, where two aces and teammates are wondering where they will play once April arrives.
With spring training around the corner, here's a look at some unanswered storylines burning on the hot stove.
Rumor: Phillies Will Trade Cliff Lee Before Opening Day
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The Philadelphia Phillies are anxiously awaiting the happy and healthy return of ace Cliff Lee. Not in hopes of the veteran regaining Cy Young glory, but so the rebuilding club can jettison him for younger assets.
According to ESPN's Jayson Stark, the Phillies "could move Cliff Lee as soon as spring training if he proves he's healthy." After spending the entire offseason speculating on Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon, it's time to grill another notable arm on the hot stove.
Following a six-year stretch of tossing over 210 innings each season, the 36-year-old southpaw hurled just 81.1 frames during the 2014 campaign. An elbow injury knocked him out of commission for two months, only for a comeback to fall flat after three starts.
Last season's 3.65 ERA is poor for his standards, representing the highest such mark since 2007's disastrous 6.29 ERA that preceded his American League Cy Young Award. Yet he weaved a commendable 2.96 fielding independent pitching (FIP) and a stellar 6.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
The Phillies have no reason to keep Lee around for the final year of his contract before buying out 2016's hefty club option. Anyone investing the $25 million due to him in 2015 and the $12.5 million buyout, however, should want to see more than practice mound sessions to prove he's healthy.
Lee likely won't finish the season with the Phillies, but he'll start there. Suitors will wait to see in-game action while Philadelphia hopes he bolsters his stock with revitalized production.
Verdict: Fiction
Rumor: Cole Hamels Starts Season with Phillies
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On the other hand, Cole Hamels now appears stuck in Philadelphia.
Once a top suitor for his services, the Padres instead signed Shields. The feeling around the league is that because they waited too long, the Phillies now must wait even longer.
According to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark, other teams believe they'll end up shelving trade talks until the summer:
"The Phillies have embarked on an aggressive rebuilding course this winter, have already traded away longtime shortstop Jimmy Rollins and view dealing Hamels as the potential centerpiece of that reconstruction project.
However, clubs that have been talking to the Phillies say Amaro has told them that he needs to "win the deal" in order to trade Hamels, and that the Phillies have been willing to pay little or none of the $96 million remaining on Hamels' contract over the next four seasons. So increasingly, other teams expect the Phillies to keep Hamels for now and to ramp up efforts to move him again in July.
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Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal wrote that the Phillies would prefer to deal with the Boston Red Sox, who don't appear willing to deal Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart. Rosenthal referenced the Tampa Bay Rays' deadline trade for David Price as the type of package Ruben Amaro Jr. won't settle for in exchange for his ace.
While Tampa Bay appeared to net an underwhelming return, Drew Smyly recorded a 1.70 ERA for the club after the trade. It wasn't the perfect deal, but the organization realized something had to be done.
Don't expect Amaro to make the same realization anytime soon. Hamels' value won't increase any more after registering a career-high 2.46 ERA, but he'll continue to hold out for a top-shelf prospect who may never come.
Verdict: Fact
Rumor: Tigers Looking into Blue Jays' Dioner Navarro
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The Detroit Tigers boldly handed Victor Martinez a four-year extension this offseason, a move they must now fret before the contract begins. After undergoing knee surgery, the 36-year-old designated hitter is out four to six weeks.
That places him on track to return by Opening Day, but it's far from a lock. Entrenched in full win-now mode, the Tigers can't afford to take any chances, which led to a contested rumor about them seeking help from the Toronto Blue Jays.
According to Jeff Blair of SportsNet Toronto, the Tigers are eyeing a catcher to replace the former backstop:
"With Victor Martinez’s availability for the start of the season in jeopardy, the Detroit Tigers have had discussions about acquiring switch-hitting Dioner Navarro from the Toronto Blue Jays, according to major league sources. Navarro, who hit .272 with eight home runs and 18 doubles as a left-handed bat for the Blue Jays, is considered the Blue Jays’ top trade asset, but the team has signalled it won’t move him unless it gets a pitcher in return.
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Mike Wilner of Sportsnet 590 The Fan, however, refuted that report. Whether or not Detroit made the inquiry, Navarro does not offer much as a Martinez insurance policy. His .274/.317/.395 slash line makes him worthy of handling catching duties elsewhere, but moving him torpedoes that value.
Navarro will now play second fiddle to the newly signed Russell Martin in Canada, which makes him a sensible candidate. Yet unless the Tigers want him behind the plate, where Alex Avila's plate discipline and glove work counters poor contact, it's not worth the hassle.
Given Martinez and Miguel Cabrera's health concerns, Detroit can use another bat to spell both veteran sluggers at first base and designated hitter. A prototypical burly bat better fits the team's need.
Verdict: Fiction
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Rumor: Dodgers Wary of Yoan Moncada
4 of 5Due to restructured MLB rules for incoming Cuban players, top prospect Yoan Moncada is now an eligible free agent. Let the bidding frenzy commence for an uber-talented 19-year-old with superstar upside.
All the big-market clubs are chomping at the bit to land his services. The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo listed the usual suspects (New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs) along with a couple more surprising parties (Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres) as the most aggressive suitors.
It's easy to see why they want him:
"Moncada is a 19-year-old Cuban middle infielder with great arm strength, great range at second base in particular (though he also can play shortstop and third), great bat speed, and very good speed.
Most teams involved can’t talk about Moncada on the record because he’s a free agent, but one National League talent evaluator pointed out, “He could be the next Robinson Cano/Chase Utley, but more Cano. That’s the kind of potential bat we’re talking about.”
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Yet MLB.com's Ken Gurnick reported reluctance on the Dodgers' part to shatter their international signing bonus pool:
"That backs away from an interview Zaidi gave MLB Network Radio three weeks ago, when he said: "To the extent that our evaluation of [Moncada] matches or exceeds where the market goes, we'll definitely be players for him."
Since then, however, one baseball source insisted the Dodgers have serious reservations about signing the 19-year-old Moncada because of the extreme cost.
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Signing Moncada would produce sizable tax penalties for exceeding their allotment while also hamstringing them from chasing other young players. The Dodgers, however, are not shy about flaunting their deep pockets, already committed to $265 million in payroll for 2015.
They will face steep competition from the Yankees and Red Sox, but don't expect the Dodgers to bow out of the Moncada sweepstakes just yet.
Verdict: Fiction
Rumor: Marlins Have 'Touched Base' with Francisco Rodriguez
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One of the few lingering unsigned free agents, Francisco Rodriguez remains available for clubs searching for a veteran relief pitcher with a lively arm. Per MLB.com's Joel Frisaro, the Miami Marlins are one such team that has expressed interest.
With Steve Cishek in charge of save situations, Rodriguez would fade back into a setup gig.
The traditional baseball observer would declare him deserving of another ninth-inning role after lassoing 44 saves with a 9.66 K/9 ratio. Yet his FanGraphs page weaves a different story for the 33-year-old. A .216 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and 93 percent strand rate helped him overcome a 4.50 FIP. Suddenly, a middle-relief role looks more than reasonable.
If there's one team that would ignore such sabermetric red flags, it's the Marlins. They acquired Dee Gordon after an unsustainable career year while landing Mat Latos despite declining velocity and strikeout rates.
Nathan Eovaldi posted a 3.37 FIP last season, but the Marlins sent him to the Yankees after tallying a 4.37 ERA. An organization not in touch with analytics represents K-Rod's best chance at a payday, so a short-term deal with Miami makes perfect sense.
Verdict: Fact
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