MLB Teams Who Will Overachieve, Underachieve Their 2015 Payrolls
Baseball is a strange sport. Year in and year out, we watch as teams win and lose more than they probably should.
The upcoming season should be no different, as the offseason has presented us with multiple candidates who could overachieve or underachieve.
The Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants and New York Yankees rank in the top 10 in projected payroll, but all three squads will enter the season with their share of question marks. With aging rosters earning lofty paychecks, it may be difficult for those organizations to put a product on the field that matches the money that's being invested.
On the other hand, the Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Indians and Miami Marlins found themselves pinching pennies to put together a competent roster. But each organization seems to be in good shape to contend for a postseason berth, despite a lack of funds.
I will use Spoctrac's real-time payroll tracker in this analysis. Spoctrac ranks each team in terms of dollars invested, but it also breaks down exactly where those dollars are being spent.
But, without further ado, let's jump into the list!
Overachievers No. 3: Cleveland Indians
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Current 2015 Payroll and MLB Rank
$79 million—24th
Highest-Paid Players
- Nick Swisher—$15 million
- Michael Bourn—$13.5 million
- Brandon Moss—$6.5 million
Why They Will Overachieve Their Payroll
The Indians went 85-77 a year ago, finishing just five games back of the AL Central-winning Detroit Tigers and only three out of the final wild-card spot.
Cleveland's success was due in large part to one of the better pitching staffs in the American League. Out of all major league staffs, the Indians finished the 2014 season ranked fourth in WAR, 14th in ERA, second in FIP and first in strikeout to walk percentage.
Of course those numbers were inflated by Corey Kluber's incredible Cy Young season. Kluber went 18-9 with a 2.44 ERA and over 10 K's per nine innings. The right-hander also ranked in the top five in innings pitched, FIP and strikeout to walk percentage, while besting all of baseball in pitching WAR.
Although Kluber was clearly the star of the Cleveland staff, the Indians enjoyed solid campaigns from a handful of other hurlers. Carlos Carrasco finished the season with a sub-3.00 ERA, while Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer and Zach McAllister each posted a WAR over one.
Cleveland's rotation will need to be a tad more productive this season for the Tribe to make the playoffs, but with a league-low $12 million invested in its pitching, Cleveland will likely get more than its money's worth in 2015.
At the dish, you'll find the Indians' worst contract in Nick Swisher. Although he was hurt in 2014, Swisher is owed $15 million coming off a season in which he posted a .208 average and a negative WAR.
But with productive pieces such as Michael Brantley, Brandon Moss, Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall all due to make under $7 million this season, Cleveland won't be overpaying too much for offensive production.
Underachievers No. 3: New York Yankees
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Current 2015 Payroll and MLB Rank
$211 million—2nd
Highest-Paid Players
- Mark Teixeira—$22.5 million
- C.C. Sabathia—$23 million
- Masahiro Tanaka—$22 million
Why They Will Underachieve Their Payroll
The New York Yankees are used to entering the season with a massive payroll, and 2015 will be no different. The Yankees will begin the season trailing only the Los Angeles Dodgers in money invested in its roster.
That formula has worked for the Bronx Bombers in the past, but the product the club puts on the field this season likely won't be up to par with the excessive amounts the organization has churned into it.
The Yankees have nine current players who are pegged to make over $10 million in 2015. Out of those nine players, New York is scheduled to pay Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia in excess of $60 million.
Sabathia wasn't 100 percent in 2014, but there was evidence of a drop in form before the lefty struggled last season. Sabathia posted a 4.78 ERA in 2013, after a seven-year stretch of sub-3.50 ERA. The southpaw's velocity continues to decline, as his heater averaged only 88 mph in 2014.
Teixeira remains the highest-paid player on the club, but he hasn't produced like a top-tier, middle-of-the-lineup slugger since 2009. And as for A-Rod, it's probably best just to not broach that topic.
Even the Yankees' role players are enjoying hefty paychecks.
Brett Gardner has been one of the most steady players in the AL East in recent times, but a speedy outfielder with little power and high strikeout totals shouldn't be cashing checks adding up to $12 million a year.
Carlos Beltran will turn 38 this season and is scheduled to make $15 million on the heels of a 109-game season. And although Chase Headley flashed glimpses of his old self while in pinstripes, a four-year, $52 million deal this offseason was too steep a price.
The Yankees will compete for a playoff spot this season, but with most of their money tied up in aging, unproductive or unpredictable players, the product on the field won't resemble one that cost over $200 million to make.
Overachievers No. 2: Pittsburgh Pirates
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Current 2015 Payroll and MLB Rank
$65 million—28th
Highest-Paid Players
- Francisco Liriano—$11 million
- Andrew McCutchen—$10 million
- A.J. Burnett—$8.5 million
Why They Will Overachieve Their Payroll
Pirates general manager Neal Huntington and manager Clint Hurdle have done a fantastic job in Pittsburgh, winning 90-plus games and qualifying for the postseason in consecutive seasons.
Pittsburgh has done so without shelling out lucrative contracts in free agency. In fact, two of Pittsburgh's three highest-paid players in 2015 will be free-agent pickups Francisco Liriano and A.J. Burnett, proving the club's core has been assembled with shrewd decision-making.
Of course it helps when you have one of the top five players in the game on your squad.
Andrew McCutchen is scheduled to make $10 million in 2015, and $10 million has never been more of a bargain. Since 2011, the outfielder ranks in the top five in WAR, wRC+ and OBP. Despite missing a handful of games last season, McCutchen posted an OBP of .410 and a wRC+ of 168. Just unreal stuff.
Aside from McCutchen, the rest of the Pirates' key cogs come at appropriate prices:
- Neil Walker—$8 million—led all second baseman in home runs and finished third in wRC+.
- Josh Harrison—$2.8 million—finished seventh in the league in average and a 4.9 WAR.
- Starling Marte—$1 million—swiped 30 bags, hit .291 and posted a 4.1 WAR.
- Gerrit Cole—around $500,000—posted a 3.65 ERA and nine K's per nine at just 24.
The impact of losing Russell Martin has yet to be determined, but the Pirates were never going to pay him what he ended up earning from the Toronto Blue Jays. Instead, Pittsburgh will compete for a playoff spot once again in 2015 with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball.
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Underachievers No. 2: San Francisco Giants
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Current 2015 Payroll and MLB Rank
$163 million—5th
Highest-Paid Players
- Matt Cain—$20 million
- Hunter Pence—$18.5 million
- Tim Lincecum—$18 million
Why They Will Underachieve Their Payroll
This selection will probably be controversial, but hear me out.
San Francisco has won three World Series titles since 2010, including a magical run to a championship last season. The Giants rode a historic effort from Madison Bumgarner all the way to Game 7 victory against the Kansas City Royals.
But the Giants won only 88 games last season, needing to defeat the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Wild Card Game to reach the NLDS. With San Francisco going 76-86 the year before, the club has hardly had the look of world-beaters during the regular season.
That's not taking anything away from the club. The Giants remain one of the premier franchises in MLB but don't be shocked to see San Fran's play drop off a bit next season.
My biggest concern with the Giants is the gaudy amounts of cash being thrown at their rotation. Yes, Bumgarner is one of the best pitchers in baseball. But for a club with a reputation of fine starting pitching, it may surprise you to hear that San Francisco starters ranked 28th in WAR and ERA last season.
The Giants will enter the season paying the foursome of Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Tim Hudson and Jake Peavy nearly $60 million. Cain is coming back from an elbow injury, Hudson needed ankle surgery this offseason, Lincecum may not even be in the rotation and Peavy posted a WAR under 2.00.
Wishful thinking would see the aforementioned hurlers return to their peak forms, and if that were the case, I'd be eating crow. But there's reason to be concerned that over a third of the Giants' payroll is invested in four pitchers with various warning signs.
Overachievers No. 1: Miami Marlins
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Current 2015 Payroll and MLB Rank
$59 million—30th
Highest-Paid Players
- Martin Prado—$11 million
- Dan Haren—$10 million
- Mat Latos—9.4 million
Why They Will Overachieve Their Payroll
The Miami Marlins may have the lowest payroll in baseball, but the Fish used this offseason to become legitimate dark-horse postseason contenders.
Of course, one of the biggest stories of the winter was Giancarlo Stanton signing a 13-year, $325 million deal to stay in Miami. Despite that ridiculous sum of money, Stanton is only in line to make $6.5 million in 2015. The powerful slugger has become one of the premier power hitters in baseball, bashing over 150 homers by the age of 25.
As is the case for small-market teams to compete, the Marlins boast a handful of young, productive talent.
Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Adeiny Hechavarria provide the Marlins' lineup with such talent, while Henderson Alvarez and the, albeit injured, Jose Fernandez give the rotation similar production.
Miami also added plenty of cost-effective talent to pair with its emerging roster this winter.
Dee Gordon has his flaws, but at just $2.5 million, the speedster represents a significant upgrade at second base. Even if the Fish had to give up Andrew Heaney in return. The Marlins dealt for Mat Latos as well this winter, and his career 3.34 ERA is well worth his $9.4 million bill.
Another underrated aspect of the roster is at closer, where Steve Cishek has become one of the more reliable ninth-inning options in baseball. The right-hander has saved 73 games with a sub-3.00 ERA over the last two seasons.
Much of Miami's success will depend on Fernandez's ability to bounce back from Tommy John, but the pieces are in place for the Marlins to contend this season. That's pretty impressive for a club with the lowest payroll in MLB.
Underachievers No. 1: Philadelphia Phillies
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Current 2015 Payroll and MLB Rank
$131 million—10th
Highest-Paid Players
- Ryan Howard—$25 million
- Cliff Lee—$25 million
- Cole Hamels—$22.5 million
Why They Will Underachieve Their Payroll
The Philadelphia Phillies won't contend in 2015, but the club's payroll remains one of the highest in MLB.
General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has yet to fully commit to a rebuilding process, but there are signs that he's at least considering it. He's already flipped Jimmy Rollins and Marlon Byrd this offseason, with rumors persisting that he's listening in on Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon.
Not to beat a dead horse but paying Ryan Howard $25 million should be a criminal act.
Howard's game has deteriorated significantly since his best years in the late 2000s, culminating in a .223 average and 93 wRC+ last season. There's no doubt the Phillies' brass would love to wash their hands clean of the Howard mess, but Philadelphia may be resigned to the fact that it will have to see out the rest of Howard's deal.
Cliff Lee is also being paid $25 million for the season ahead, but at least he's been productive in recent years. The southpaw logged over 200 innings and posted a WAR no less than 4.8 from 2011-2013. But risk remains due to Lee's injury-shortened 2014 at the age of 36.
After Howard and Lee, Hamels, Papelbon, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz and Aaron Harang follow in terms of the club's highest-paid players. Those salaries account for $109 of the current $131 million payroll, and with the exception of Hamels, each of those players is 34 or older.
I believe Amaro will finally commit to getting younger at some point this season, but for now, the Phillies will enter the 2015 season with a roster consisting of old, overpriced players who won't be enough for the club to return to the postseason.
Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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