Predicting the Big-Name MLB Prospects Who Will Get Called Up Fastest
Even though prospects such as Joc Pederson, Andrew Heaney and Aaron Sanchez are expected to earn spots on their respective teams' Opening Day rosters, a majority of the game's top-ranked young players won’t begin the 2015 season in the major leagues.
In most cases, prospects who fail to make the initial 25-man roster lack significant professional experience or a clear path to consistent playing time at the highest level—or ones that simply don’t need to be added to the 40-man roster quite yet.
But when will these nearly MLB-ready prospects be ready for a call-up?
In order to determine which players are likely to receive early-season promotions, we decided to stay away from guys who are projected to open the year in the major leagues and instead focus on prospects seemingly on the verge of a call-up heading into the season.
Here are five big-name prospects who will get called up fastest in 2015.
Maikel Franco, 3B/1B, Philadelphia Phillies
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Maikel Franco, 22, overcame a rough first half (.649 OPS in 87 games) at Triple-A Lehigh Valley to turn the corner in July and bat .324/.344/.579 with 30 extra-base hits (11 home runs) and 47 RBI over his final 54 games.
Franco’s second-half surge convinced the Phillies he was ready to be challenged at the highest level, so they called him up on Sept. 1 for the final month of the season. However, Franco’s hot bat didn’t carry over to The Show, as he batted just .179 (10-for-56) with 13 strikeouts while appearing in 16 games.
Thankfully, Franco fared much better this offseason in the Dominican Winter League, batting .272/.335/.469 with seven home runs in 38 games. On top of that, the 22-year-old absolutely killed it in the playoffs, per The Outside Corner:
"In 22 playoff games, Franco hit an absurd .337/.344/.570 with four homers. His four homers were tied for the league lead with teammate Carlos Peguero, and his .914 OPS was a good 107 points better than the next closest player (journeyman minor league catcher catcher Wilkin Castillo, who spent the last two years in Mexico). In the Gigantes’ title clinching 12-5 win over the Estrellas de Oriente, Franco went 3/4 with two homers and seven RBI.
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As a right-handed hitter, Franco's strong wrists and plus bat speed fuel his plus power projection, which could manifest in the form of 25-plus home runs at maturity. The 22-year-old doesn’t miss many fastballs, but his recognition of secondary pitches is fringy and prevents him from consistently barreling such offerings. However, even if Franco’s hit tool doesn’t pan out in the major leagues, there’s a good chance he’ll still meet expectations in the power department.
Defensively, Franco is a below-average runner but has a good first step and decent lateral range at third base, where his above-average arm strength is also a clean fit. However, he’s likely to lose some of that quickness with physical maturation, which would prompt a full-time move across the infield to first base.
Franco likely will be given a chance this spring to claim third base from Cody Asche, who also will see time in left field. It’s possible that Franco will relish the opportunity and run away with the job, but after his showing last September, that seems unlikely. Rather, I think Franco returns to Triple-A to begin the season, if only to get one month’s worth of at-bats before joining the Phillies.
Carlos Rodon, LHP, Chicago White Sox
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After the White Sox selected Carlos Rodon with the No. 3 overall pick in last year’s draft, the left-hander reported to the Rookie-level Arizona League before moving up to Triple-A Charlotte in mid-August, less than a month after he made his professional debut.
The 22-year-old impressed at the minor leagues' highest level, posting a 3.00 ERA with 18 strikeouts over 12 innings (three starts), including 15 over his final two starts. There was widespread speculation that the White Sox might call up Rodon in September and use him out of the bullpen. However, the club ultimately decided to keep its top prospect in the minors, postponing his inevitable debut until the 2015 season.
Rodon has everything one looks for in a potential front-end starter with a durable frame, three offerings with plus-or-better potential, highlighted by a low-to-mid 90s heater and a 70-grade slider, and the type of competitive mound presence that can’t be taught.
Rodon will compete during spring training for a spot in the South Siders’ Opening Day rotation, although there’s also a possibility that the team chooses to break him in a bullpen role. Right now, the club seems to be playing things by ear:
""We didn’t draft this guy third in the nation to be a reliever,” pitching coach Don Cooper, who watched Rodon throw a bullpen session Friday, said. “At some point he’s going to be a starter. We haven’t discussed when is that point. Right now he’s going to come to spring training, show us what he can do and he’s going to give us all the information we need.
“Chris Sale, Mark Buehrle, they started their careers in relief. Buehrle’s one of the top pitchers over the last 15 years in White Sox history and Sale is quickly rising up those ranks."
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The White Sox stand to save a year of team control over Rodon by having him begin the season in the minor leagues, a move that would also makes sense given John Danks and Hector Noesi’s respective abilities to hold down the back end of the rotation. However, once Rodon arrives he’ll be up to stay, and it shouldn’t take him long to emerge as one of baseball’s premier left-handed pitchers.
Jake Lamb, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Jake Lamb, 24, spent most of the 2014 season raking in the Southern League, where he posted a .318/.399/.551 batting line, 14 home runs, 35 doubles and 79 RBI over 103 games at Double-A Mobile.
Specifically, an adjustment to Lamb’s swing during spring allowed him to create better leverage through the ball and, in turn, tap into his above-average raw power more consistently. He’d been a doubles machine throughout his career, but Lamb began clearing more fences and realizing his power potential.
Lamb was rewarded with a promotion to Triple-A Reno in early August, but he quickly found himself starting for the Arizona Diamondbacks after just five games at the minor’s highest level. The Washington alum mostly scuffled during his time in the desert, batting just .230/.263/.373 with four home runs, four doubles, 11 RBI and 33 strikeouts in 27 games.
Lamb is a legitimate plus defender at third base with excellent range, soft hands and above-average arm strength as well as the agility and athleticism to stick at the position long term.
Lamb flies under the radar in terms of third base prospects, but his tools and advanced skills on both sides of the ball should help him achieve an everyday role in the major leagues. Arizona’s offseason signing of Yasmany Tomas has cast a cloud over Lamb’s role with in 2015, as the team at least plans to see what the 24-year-old Cuban can do at third base during spring training. However, even if Tomas holds his own at the position, he’s unlikely to stay there long, thus opening the door for Lamb’s return to the major leagues early in the season.
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Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
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Kris Bryant's first full professional season was historic, as the 23-year-old slugger posted up monster numbers between Double- and Triple-A but was denied a call-up in September.
Specifically, Bryant led the minor leagues (qualified hitters only) in home runs (43), slugging percentage (.661), OPS (1.098) and wOBA (.472). He also ranked second in runs (118) and fourth in RBI (110), and he batted .325 with a .438 on-base percentage in 594 plate appearances.
At 6’5”, 215 pounds, Bryant possesses effortless 80-grade raw power that has translated in a big way at each professional stop. The right-handed hitter does an excellent job of using his height and size to his advantage, achieving huge extension through the ball to generate towering drives with backspin carry to all fields. At maturity, it’s easy to see him leading the league with 35-plus home runs in a given season.
Though known for his robust, light-tower power to all fields, Bryant actually has a good feel for hitting, with a line-to-line approach, good pitch recognition and excellent plate coverage. His lack of stride and purely rotational swing will always result in some swing-and-miss, but he’s still a smart enough hitter and controls the zone well enough to be a .270-plus hitter in the major leagues.
Defensively, Bryant moves well for his size, showing range and agility at the hot corner that’s a tick above average. His plus arm strength is a clean fit at the position and could allow him to move to a corner outfield position down the road if necessary.
After the team traded Luis Valbuena to Houston in January, general manager Jed Hoyer told MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat that “Kris’ development is independent of any move we made today. We have a number of guys who will be working at third [this spring].”
However, with Tommy La Stella and Mike Olt atop the team’s depth chart (by default) heading into spring training, it appears as though Bryant will at least be given a chance to make the Cubs’ Opening Day roster. But an extra year of pre-arbitration control of a slugger such as a Bryant could be huge for Chicago—especially given the ever-increasing cost across the game for legitimate power hitters—and certainly worth sending him to the minors to begin the season.
ESPN’s Buster Olney recently opined that Bryant is “likely destined for a promotion in late April,” which would make sense based on the timeline the Cubs appear to have in place. Beyond that, there’s no way of justifying that Bryant isn’t one of the Cubs’ top 25 players.
Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
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After the Phillies selected Aaron Nola with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2014 draft, the right-hander showcased excellent command during his professional debut, as he walked only 10 batters over 55.1 innings while reaching the Double-A level. Overall, he pitched to a 2.93 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 45 strikeouts.
Working from a low-three-quarter arm slot, Nola sits in the low 90s with a heavy fastball that induces both whiffs and weak contact, while his slider is an above-average pitch thrown with tight spin and depth on a fastball plane. Nola also does a nice job of keeping hitters off balance with his changeup, which registers in the 83-85 mph range, and his entire arsenal should always play up thanks to his plus command profile.
The Phillies have Nola on the fast track to the major leagues, and if all goes as planned with the right-hander’s development, he should spend most of 2015 in the team’s starting rotation. The team’s projected rotation for the upcoming season features David Buchanan and Jerome Williams at the moment, per Roster Resource, and it goes without saying that Nola will be an upgrade over both right-handers.
Yet because the Phillies are more or less rebuilding, it makes sense for them to play the service-time game with Nola and send him to Double- or Triple-A to begin the season. As with Rodon, Nola won’t need much time in the minor leagues to prove he’s ready for the highest level.
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