2015 NFL Draft: Prospects with the Most Boom-or-Bust Potential

Picking smart in the NFL draft is all about balancing risk and reward. While every franchise hopes to land future stars with its early-round picks, each team also tries to avoid drafting busts who fail to emerge as productive players.

The following 10 players, more than any others in the 2015 draft class, will leave teams walking a fine line between potentially winning big or perhaps making a huge mistake.

All of the following prospects come with risk factors—on-field flaws, off-field concerns or simply underwhelming collegiate production—that make them far from safe bets to have prolific NFL careers.

On the other hand, all of them also have the upside to be difference-makers in the league if they capitalize upon their physical gifts.

Given the latter, each of the following prospects has a chance to be a first- or second-round pick in this year’s draft. A team considering making that investment in one of these prospects, however, needs to determine whether that player’s potential to be greater than his peers outweighs his potential to fail.

Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

In a quarterback draft class composed of two projected top-five picks (Oregon’s Marcus Mariota, Florida State’s Jameis Winston) and a bunch of Day 3 prospects, UCLA’s Brett Hundley is the man in the middle.

A 6’3”, 226-pound passer with a strong arm and great athleticism for his size, Hundley has the physical tools of a top quarterback prospect. He has the ability to make any throw on the field, and he is coming off a productive redshirt junior season in which he completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 3,155 yards and 22 touchdowns with only five interceptions.

That said, there are some problems with Hundley’s game that make him one of the draft’s most polarizing prospects. He has not consistently shown the ability to place his passes with precision, while his slow progressions have often been exposed by pressure.

As he makes the jump to the NFL, where coverages are tighter and pass-rushers are faster, Hundley will need to continue improving upon his accuracy and speed up his decision-making.

Truly a developmental project more than he is a pro-ready starter, Hundley’s appropriate draft value would be between the late second round to early fourth round.

The stark drop-off in quarterback talent after Mariota and Winston, however, could propel Hundley as high as the first round, if a team believes he can be its franchise quarterback and will be able to overcome his current flaws.

Projection: Round 1-2

Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn

USA TODAY Sports

Considered by some analysts to be college football’s top draft-eligible wide receiver prior to the start of this past season, Auburn’s Sammie Coates failed to play up to expectations in his redshirt junior season.

After leading the Tigers with 42 receptions for 902 yards and seven touchdowns in 2013, Coates had just 34 receptions for 741 yards and four scores in 2014. Coates lost many catchable balls off his hands over the course of the season, and he finished the year just third on his team in receptions.

Even so, Coates still has a chance to be a first-round pick. A 6’2”, 213-pound wideout with a terrific combination of size and speed, Coates has the potential to be the best deep weapon from this year’s draft class.

Any team that uses one of its first picks on Coates will have to hope that he can be more than that. While there’s no reason to doubt Coates’ big-play ability, he has to prove that he can consistently secure the ball and be effective at the intermediate level.

A strong week at the Senior Bowl, at which he consistently caught the ball cleanly and ran strong intermediate routes in practices, could alleviate some concerns about his ability to be a complete player.

Additionally, teams will have no reason for off-field concerns with Coates, who recently won the Uplifting Athletes Rare Disease Champion award for his friendship with a young leukemia patient.

In a deep class of wide receivers, there are many players who have more well-rounded games than Coates, but it’s likely someone will take a chance early on Coates’ upside to be a game-changer.

Projection: Round 1-2

Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma

Dorial Green-Beckham is one of the 2015 draft’s most physically spectacular prospects, but he's also one of its most personally troubled.

A 6’6”, 225-pound wideout with outstanding speed, leaping ability and body control for his size, Green-Beckham has the skill set to be a matchup nightmare. In two playing seasons at Missouri, Green-Beckham made a number of spectacular plays among totals of 87 receptions, 1,278 yards and 17 touchdowns.

If talent was the only factor in an evaluation, Green-Beckham would likely be a top-20 draft pick. He will likely be selected significantly later, however, because of an alarming off-field history.

Green-Beckham was dismissed from Missouri last April after allegedly forcing his way into an apartment and pushing a woman down at least four stairs. The receiver was also arrested twice during his two years at Missouri for marijuana-related incidents.

That rap sheet will be enough to knock him off some teams’ draft boards completely. “Why would you take a guy like that before the third day?" an NFC director of personnel asked recently, according to NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein.

Any team that drafts Green-Beckham will be taking a big chance on a player who not only has a troubled past, but also did not even play football this past year, as he was ineligible to play after transferring to Oklahoma.

Green-Beckham has the skill to be the next Dez Bryant, but he’s just as likely to be the next Josh Gordon. After a year in which the off-field problems of NFL players received more attention, it’s hard to see a team making an early-round investment in Green-Beckham.

Projection: Day 3

T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh

Sharon Ellman/Associated Press

Pittsburgh right tackle T.J. Clemmings shot up draft projections this past fall with an impressive senior season, but the converted defensive tackle still must improve significantly to be an effective bookend on an NFL offensive line.

Clemmings, who measured in at 6’5” and 307 pounds with a 85.25” wingspan at this year’s Senior Bowl, has the length and athletic ability that scouts look for in an offensive tackle.

He has also demonstrated tremendous run-blocking power, as he regularly showed this past season that he can bulldoze opponents down the field.

Pass blocking remains a greater challenge for Clemmings. While he has the foot quickness and long limbs to potentially excel in this capacity, his game remains rife with technical issues, as he is inconsistent with his hand placement and has a tendency to overextend.

At the Senior Bowl, Clemmings’ flaws were repeatedly exposed. He struggled throughout the week’s practice sessions in pass-protection drills and then was graded by Pro Football Focus to have the worst performance of any participant in the actual game.

Clemmings has the upside to potentially develop into a standout NFL right tackle, but he will likely be in over his head if asked to play as a rookie.

The team that drafts Clemmings will be banking on his issues being rooted in his inexperience playing the position, and it will expect to be able to build him into a star. Ultimately, coaching and fundamental development could play key roles in whether Clemmings booms or busts at the next level.

Projection: Round 1-2

Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska

Nati Harnik/Associated Press

Likely to be the first player selected of the 10 on this list, and a top-10 overall draft pick, Nebraska’s Randy Gregory has all the physical qualities of a star pass-rusher but also many of the same flaws of busts that have come before him at his position.

A 6’6”, 240-pound defensive end with a rare combination of burst, agility and length, Gregory can overmatch many of his opponents—even at the next level—with his raw physical tools. He closes with speed in pursuit and has the versatility to play both along the line of scrimmage and off the ball at the second level.

In comparison with the other pass-rushers being projected as top picks, however, Gregory’s collegiate production was subpar. He had just 8.5 tackles for loss this past season, and while he battled through some injuries, he was more of a flash player than one who made a consistent snap-to-snap impact.

Gregory is active with his hands, but he needs further development in his pass-rushing moves to consistently beat NFL offensive tackles. As a run defender, Gregory must bulk up and become significantly stronger to hold up at the point of attack, especially if he is to stay at defensive end in a 4-3 scheme.

With added strength and fundamental improvement, Gregory could emerge as an elite edge defender at the next level. He’ll be drafted high as a result, but the team that makes that decision will be rolling the dice on what he could become, not his existing skill set.

Projection: Top 10

Arik Armstead, DE/DT, Oregon

USA TODAY

A highly touted player since he was in high school, Oregon’s Arik Armstead has rare physical qualities that make him a likely first-round pick, but his production has never quite lived up to the hype.

Armstead is a tremendous athlete at 6’8” and 290 pounds who also exhibits the ability to win with power. Able to be a difference-maker from both inside and outside, Armstead is a versatile prospect who could play both defensive tackle and defensive end in a 4-3 front, while he has ideal measurables for playing 5-technique defensive end in a 3-4 scheme.

When Armstead is at his best, he flashes big playmaking ability. He can move blockers backward with his bull rush and can close on a quarterback or ball-carrier quickly with his acceleration.

His impact on the Ducks defense was fairly inconsistent, however, as he finished his junior season just 10th on the team in total tackles (46) and eighth in tackles for loss (5.5).

And while he could physically overwhelm many of his opponents at the collegiate level, he needs to become more skilled with his hands to win with regularity in the NFL.

Armstead could develop into a terrific NFL player, but it’s likely to take him some time to refine his skills, especially if he is drafted to play in a 4-3 defense. If he goes within the top 32 picks, as most prognosticators expect he will, he’ll be one of the riskier choices of Round 1.

Projection: Round 1-2

Mario Edwards Jr., DE/DT, Florida State

USA TODAY Sports

One of a few defensive prospects from Florida State in this year’s draft class who fits the boom-or-bust label, Mario Edwards Jr. has the attributes to be a great NFL defensive lineman but does not yet have the technical skills.

Like Arik Armstead, Edwards is a versatile defensive lineman with the measurables to play both outside and inside. Edwards has great athleticism for a player listed at 6’3” and 294 pounds, while he also can move blockers backward with power.

Also like Armstead, Edwards was a highly touted player out of high school but has never quite played up to the hype. He was Florida State’s leader in tackles for loss this past season with 11, but he has not been a consistent snap-to-snap difference-maker despite his flashes of playmaking ability.

Edwards had only eight sacks in his three-year Seminoles career, and he needs to become more skilled with his hands to be a disruptive pass-rusher at the next level.

He is an effective bull-rusher who also has great acceleration when free in pursuit, but he lacks the moves at the line of scrimmage to regularly work his way around defenders.

As he makes the jump to the NFL, Edwards has the versatility to play multiple spots in a 4-3 front or be a 3-4 defensive end, but he needs to find a natural position at the next level and work on his game accordingly. He has potential for greatness if he develops well, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if he fades into obscurity.

Projection: Round 2-3

Marcus Peters, CB, Washington

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

Marcus Peters stands out as the most talented cornerback in a draft class that lacks top-tier prospects at the position, but an ugly dismissal from the Washington football program earlier this year leaves serious reason for concern about the potential first-round pick.

On the field, Peters looks the part of a top-15 draft choice. Fluid and physical, he was regularly able to shut down his opponents in coverage and make plays on the ball, while he is also a strong tackler in run support.

While Peters does not have elite size and speed, he has more than enough of each—with the overall skill set he possesses—to be a quality NFL starter.

Peters’ reportedly volatile personality, on the other hand, could be a problem. While there were contradicting reports about whether Peters was involved in a physical altercation with an assistant coach, it was reported that Peters had “a series of run-ins with Washington’s new coaching staff” this past season, according to Adam Jude of The Seattle Times.

If Peters fails to listen to and get along with his coaches at the next level, his NFL career will not go well. Teams considering making him a first-round pick will have to consider that risk in their evaluations.

But if Peters can avoid insubordination going forward, he has the potential to be a No. 1 cornerback on an NFL depth chart.

Projection: Round 1-2

Jalen Collins, CB, LSU

USA TODAY Sports

Considering the aforementioned lack of top-end talent in this year’s cornerback crop, LSU’s Jalen Collins is a player who is likely to rise, probably higher than he should, if he stands out in workouts in the months leading up to the draft.

Probably the most physically gifted cornerback prospect in this year’s draft class, Collins is a great athlete—with the length NFL teams increasingly covet—at 6’2” and 198 pounds. He has impressive deep speed and good leaping ability, while he is also a physical hitter in run support.

That combination of traits makes him likely to be one of the top cornerbacks on many NFL teams’ boards, especially for teams who prioritize size in their secondaries. From a technical standpoint, however, Collins is not one of the better cornerbacks in this year’s draft.

Although he is fluid enough to stay with wideouts all over the field, he is not consistently in proper position and gets beaten too frequently by quick route breaks. His physicality allows him to succeed in press coverage, but he is not great when playing in off and zone coverages.

The key word for Collins’ game right now, both in coverage and in tackling, is inconsistency. That could give him big problems and lead to big offensive plays in the NFL. But if he can progress well fundamentally, he has the tools to be as good as any defensive back in this year’s draft class.

Projection: Round 2

Gerod Holliman, FS, Louisville

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Gerod Holliman left no doubts about his big-play ability this past season. With 14 interceptions, the Louisville redshirt sophomore safety tied the all-time record in that category.

NFL teams covet ball hawks at the free safety position, and Holliman fits that description more than any other defensive back in this year’s draft class.

A fluid athlete with a clear knack for being in the right place at the right time, Holliman’s ball skills give him the potential to be an immediate difference-maker in an NFL secondary.

Holliman made a smart decision to declare for the draft, as his stock might never be higher than it is after his record-tying season, but he certainly could have benefited from another year in school.

While it is likely a team will take a chance on him in the early rounds because of his size (6’2”, 213 lbs), athleticism and playmaking ability, there are some flaws in his game that could inhibit his ability to star in an NFL secondary.

He has the speed and change-of-direction quickness to handle deep coverage responsibilities, but he is not as stellar in coverage as his statistics indicate. Although Holliman is great at finding the ball in the air, he needs to be more consistent at being in position against wide receivers and tight ends over the middle.

The biggest concern with Holliman, however, is that he could be a liability against the run. He makes some plays because of his range, aggression and size, but he is far from a sure tackler and will have problems against NFL running backs if he does not shore up his form.

Projection: Round 1-2

Dan Hope is an NFL/NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow @Dan_Hope