The Next High-Upside MLB Hitters Who Will Ascend to Superstar Status
It ain't easy being a hitter in Major League Baseball these days. Pitching is pwning (yes, "pwning") the sport as a whole, and young arms continue to pop up all over, ready to take the next step.
Case in point? Last week, we looked into the top pitching candidates to become MLB aces.
Now it's time to do the same for position players.
Unfortunately, there isn't exactly a position-player equivalent for the term "ace." But if there were, that's what we are seeking here: the high-upside hitters and elite defenders who have it in them to turn their potential into production—and a reputation—of the highest variety.
In the interest of trying to make this exercise of identifying the sport's next MVP candidates-in-the-making a bit more objective, there needs to be some criteria.
To qualify for this endeavor, a player:
- Must have a realistic chance to become a full-blown superstar/MVP candidate in 2015
- Must never have placed in the top 10 in MVP award voting to this point in his career
- Must not have more than five years of MLB service time
Take careful note of these three criteria, because the first requires a player who is not only in relatively good health but also ready for the majors right now.
That goes a long way toward answering why, say, Byron Buxton or Kris Bryant, widely considered two of the best prospects in the game right now, don't make the cut. While the Minnesota Twins center field prospect is too far away for 2015, the Chicago Cubs third baseman might need a season or two before he really takes off, as most on-the-cusp prospects do (i.e. Francisco Lindor, Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, etc.).
The second criterion explains why you won't see, for instance, the Chicago Cubs' Anthony Rizzo or the Cleveland Indians' Michael Brantley or even the Washington Nationals' Anthony Rendon, one of 2014's breakout performers. Those three have finished in the top 10 in MVP voting, so they can be called superstars already, to varying degrees.
As for the service time requirement, well, let's just say that if it ain't happened after five seasons in the big leagues, chances are, it ain't happenin'. Although, there's a case to be made for a top-notch shortstop like Ian Desmond, who just misses the cut with five years and 27 days in the bigs.
One last thing to keep in mind: Because the aim here—it needs to be reinforced—is to find the next true superstar who could turn into a legitimate MVP candidate this year, the standards are extremely lofty. In other words, the very good need not apply.
All that considered, here are the top 10 position-player candidates who could ascend to superstar status this year.
Honorable Mentions
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Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians
Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
George Springer, OF, Houston Astros
Todd Frazier, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Devin Mesoraco, C, Cincinnati Reds
Corey Dickerson, OF, Colorado Rockies
Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals
Andrelton Simmons, SS, Atlanta Braves
Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals
Carlos Santana, 1B, Cleveland Indians
No. 10: Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies
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You're more than familiar with Nolan Arenado by name now that he's played two mostly full seasons in the majors. But the Colorado Rockies third baseman, who has been very good so far, is a candidate to become great in 2015.
Arenado's offensive numbers jumped dramatically from year one (.267/.301/.405 with 10 homers) to year two (.287/.328/.500 with 18 homers) in 22 fewer games, because he lost time from late May to early July with a broken finger. He also got off to a blazing beginning in 2014, including his 28-game hitting streak—both the longest in MLB last year and in Rockies history too.
Provided he surpasses his career high in games played and plate appearances—133 and 514, both in 2013—Arenado's numbers should only get better, considering he plays in the best hitter's park around, surrounded by a dynamic, heavy-hitting lineup and is headed into his age-24 campaign.
Oh, and as if that's not enough, Arenado is pretty great with the glove too, winning the gold one each of his first two years.
No. 9: Mookie Betts, OF, Boston Red Sox
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Given his pedigree as one of the sport's top prospects a year ago and his impressive late-2014 run, one gets the sense that all Mookie Betts needs to break out is a chance.
Despite the fact that the 5'9", 155-pound spark plug hit .304/.391/.466 with 15 extra-base hits and six stolen bases when given an everyday gig over the final six weeks, Betts is not assured of regular playing time—or even coming north with the Boston Red Sox—at the outset of 2015.
The club has more than enough outfielders—too many, really—and that could squeeze Betts into a utility/backup role or even leave him back in Triple-A to start.
At some point pretty soon, though, Betts is going to get his shot, and when that happens, he could become the Red Sox's best outfielder. That's saying something, not only because Boston has a bunch of great and/or promising outfielders—from Hanley Ramirez to Rusney Castillo to Shane Victorino to Allen Craig—but also because Betts, a natural second baseman blocked by Dustin Pedroia, has only been playing the position regularly since last May.
"For a young player," manager John Farrell said of Betts in December via Jen McCaffrey of MassLive.com, "he’s got such a unique combination of on-base ability and strike zone awareness. He’s a good looking player and you kind of marvel at the aptitude he shows at an early age and that’s an exciting thing."
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No. 8: Starling Marte, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Andrew McCutchen, the Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder who won NL MVP in 2013 and finished third last year, gets the pub, and deservedly so. But Starling Marte is on the verge of getting his share too.
While the 26-year-old's ultra-aggressive approach at the plate caught up to him in the first half of 2014, as he hit just .256/.324/.383, he played like a man possessed in the second half.
After the break, Marte posted a .348/.408/.567 line, and his .426 weighted on-base percentage was No. 1 overall. It's no secret the Pirates went 39-28 (.582) in that span after a barely .500 first half (49-46).
As an elite left fielder and one of baseball's most athletically gifted players, Marte could put it all together in 2015.
No. 7: Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins
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Christian Yelich is the unassuming, all-around All-Star-in-the-making, the guy who does a little bit of everything—and does it well.
In his first full season, the 23-year-old batted .284 with a robust .362 on-base mark and 21 steals. While his 45 extra-base knocks showed promising pop, Yelich also scored 94 runs—tied for 10th-most in MLB—despite missing two weeks to injury in late June.
Set to lead off for a reloaded Miami Marlins lineup, Yelich could become a 20-20 man who scores 100-plus runs and looks as smooth as it gets in left field.
No. 6: Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox
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Everyone remembers Xander Bogaerts' terrible June-through-August slump (.177/.211/.291) that just so happened to coincide with his shifting to third base off his natural shortstop. And, man, was that brutal.
But Bogaerts' skill set and status as a former consensus top-three prospect at this time last year say he's closer to the player he was through the first two months of 2014, when he hit .304/.397/.438.
If he even can come close to those numbers amid Boston's beefy lineup while playing a premium up-the-middle position—yes, he's back at short now—then Bogaerts can't help but become a stud.
Remember, last season was his first full one in the majors, and Bogaerts was all of 21 years old the entire way through.
No. 5: Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros
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Really, Jose Altuve had his star-making campaign in 2014, leading baseball in both batting average (.341) and base hits (225). Oh, and he finished tied for second with 56 stolen bases too.
But the little man still qualifies here, because he placed just outside the top 10 in AL MVP voting at No. 13. Blame the Houston Astros for finishing with just 70 wins, as well as the fact that Altuve—all 5'6" of him—can't help but be overlooked.
"I think Jose is the heart of our club, and he gets the most out of his abilities," said general manager Jeff Luhnow, who accepted the GIBBY Award for 2014 Breakout Everyday Player of the Year on Altuve's behalf in December. "Expectations have been low for him, probably his whole life because of his stature, but he's had an amazing career, and his breakout is due to a lot of hard work."
There's bound to be some regression for the 24-year-old, but Altuve is a contact-making machine (7.5 percent strikeout rate), and his popularity is, ahem, growing. Another impressive season, and he'll be the biggest small superstar around.
No. 4: Kyle Seager, 3B, Seattle Mariners
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When Kyle Seager inked his $100 million extension with the Seattle Mariners last November, it raised some eyebrows, but only those belonging to folks who haven't been paying close enough attention.
Seager has turned himself from a high-floor type drafted in the third round in 2009 out of UNC into a legitimate near-superstar after three consecutive really good years. In fact, each of his four seasons so far has been better than the last, with his OPS climbing from .691 to .738 to .764 to .788 last year.
"Kyle has the work ethic to take him to an MVP season," manager Lloyd McClendon said during the press conference announcing the extension. "Hell, he can win it he wants to next season. I’m extremely impressed with him. He hasn’t even touched the tip of the iceberg yet."
Now that he's entering what should be his prime at age 27 and should get a little boost from Seattle's improved offense that includes Nelson Cruz and Seth Smith, Seager might be ready to raise his game one more level. And maybe a few more eyebrows along the way too.
No. 3: Jason Heyward, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
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Jason Heyward almost missed being eligible for this based on the service time requirement, but the new St. Louis Cardinals right fielder has exactly five years in the bigs.
Heyward, 25, is the rare player who somehow has been both widely overhyped and massively underrated—almost simultaneously—in his still-young career.
He's had two fantastic years: In 2010, the then-Atlanta Brave homered in his first game and finished second in NL Rookie of the Year; and in 2012, he established career bests in both homers (27) and steals (21) as a 20-20 man. The other three seasons, however, have been considered disappointing, due to slow starts and/or injury.
There's something about being with the Cardinals, however, that has a way of bringing the best out of players, and that would work just fine for Heyward in his walk year.
Already a star on the defensive side who earned his second Gold Glove and led MLB with 32 defensive runs saved, Heyward has yet to truly fulfill his offensive promise, it seems. That very well could happen now that he's in a better, more well-rounded lineup, likely slotted in as the No. 2 hitter, thanks to his .351 career on-base percentage.
No. 2: Yasiel Puig, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
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As one of the most talented and polarizing players in the game, Yasiel Puig already is a superstar in most circles, so his inclusion here might seem somewhat silly.
But as great as he has been his first two seasons, the Cuban sensation has yet to crack the top 10 in NL MVP voting, finishing 15th and 19th in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Thus, he's eligible.
Now that Matt Kemp is gone, Puig is in position to become the franchise's offensive engine. How's he handling that pressure?
"I only have to prepare myself and do my best on the field," Puig says, according to Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com. "I'm going to do my best, and my teammates are going to be doing their best to get where I want and to get where the city of Los Angeles wants to get. They're waiting for that."
Sure, Puig's streaky, occasionally hot-headed and prone to bouts of wild overaggressiveness in every facet, but he's a 24-year-old with a career slash line of .305/.386/.502.
Care to guess how many players in baseball history have posted a .300 batting average, .376 on-base percentage and .500 slugging percentage over at least 1,000 plate appearances through their age-23 season? Try 18.
That smacks of genuine superstar, a label Puig won't be able to escape after 2015.
No. 1: Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals
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OK, you knew this was coming, right? Honestly, what's a next-MLB-superstar column without Bryce Harper near or at the top?
While this pick is going to cause at least half of you to roll your eyes (and maybe the other half to throw up your hands), the likelihood remains that one of these years will be the year for Harper.
After all, as underwhelming (relative to expectations) as he's been through three seasons, Harper sports a career triple-slash line of .272/.351/.465, despite battling through serious injuries to his knee and thumb.
Yes, Harper can rile up some folks—even teammates—at times, but he's still only 22 years old and will be for the entirety of the 2015 regular season.
The talent and tools are among the very best, and Harper put his prodigious power on display in the postseason, launching three homers that more or less served as the Nationals offense last October—and a reminder of how special he can be.
There's more of that to come as long as he can stay on the field, and although there's more than a little Harper backlash by now, he's still baseball's best bet to become an undeniable superstar.
Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.
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