Predicting Impact MLB Deals That Will Go Down During Spring Training
Spring training is drawing nearer, but that doesn't mean we've run out of offseason storylines to discuss over the winter's final weeks.
Despite pitchers and catchers reporting in less than two weeks, we still need some clarity regarding a handful of important players.
Of course that includes a conclusion to the James Shields saga, as the front-line hurler should decide on a new home for the season ahead any day now.
Elsewhere, reigning American League Cy Young winner Corey Kluber could receive a lengthy and lucrative contract extension, and the enigmatic Jonathan Papelbon will likely be shipped to a contending team before spring training begins.
I'll analyze the current situations of these three hurlers in the following slides, focusing on the key factors that will determine the fates of the aforementioned stars.
Here we go!
The Cleveland Indians Will Extend Corey Kluber
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What a year Corey Kluber had in 2014.
En route to the American League Cy Young, the right-hander went 18-9 with a 2.44 ERA and over 10 strikeouts per nine innings. Kluber also finished second in innings pitched, second in FIP, fifth in strikeout-to-walk percentage and first in WAR.
At just 28, Kluber seems poised to enter the prime of his career. The Cleveland Indians front office will have to make a decision on whether it views Kluber in the same realm as other elite starting pitchers.
Although he's never been as dynamite as he was in 2014, there are a handful of reasons to believe Kluber's emergence as a bona fide ace is no fluke.
For one, Kluber walked under two hitters per nine last season, which was the lowest mark of his career. He was also able to shrink his home runs per nine innings, posting the seventh-best mark in baseball.
Even more impressive is Kluber's run prevention with a porous defense behind him.
The Indians ranked 29th in FanGraphs' defensive rating metric and posted a minus-75 defensive runs saved mark. When you combine those facts with the hitter-friendly dimensions of Progressive Field, Kluber's campaign was truly amazing.
Zack Meisel of Cleveland.com has reported that the Indians would likely approach Kluber in February or March to discuss a contract extension but that no such deal is on the horizon just yet.
Kluber is still under team control for another four seasons, but Cleveland would be wise to get ahead of the curb and ink its budding star before his price increases any further.
B/R's own Anthony Witrado cites recent examples like Chris Sale, Julio Teheran and Madison Bumgarner as past deals that pitchers agreed upon with around two seasons of major league service.
There is always risk in long-term deals, but another strong season from Kluber would increase his price tag to astronomical heights. With the deals free-agent pitchers were handed this offseason, Cleveland can eliminate some of that cost with Kluber if it acts quickly.
The San Diego Padres Will Sign James Shields
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With James Shields still on the market, a return to his hometown of San Diego is becoming more and more possible.
I feel like I've written hundreds of articles on Shields over the offseason, so I'll give you the condensed version.
He's extremely durable. No other major league hurler has logged more innings since 2007 than "Big Game James," with a run of eight straight 200-plus-inning seasons. The right-hander has proved he's going to take the ball every fifth day and give his team a chance to win.
In those starts, Shields has been quite productive as well. He boasts a career ERA of under 4.00 and has posted four consecutive seasons of a WAR higher than 3.7.
On the flip slide, there's some risk that the 33-year-old's high usage rate will come back to haunt him in his later years. While that may end up coming true, Shields remains a front-of-the-rotation arm capable of aiding any major league rotation.
Shields' skill set would fit perfectly for an up-and-coming team in search of a final piece to make it a viable contender for a postseason berth. The San Diego Padres front office and general manager A.J. Preller have done a fantastic job renovating the club's roster, but the addition of Shields would cement the Padres as legitimate players in the season ahead.
There's been speculation that Shields would love to pitch on the West Coast, something Bob Nightengale of USA Today confirmed via Twitter. Nightengale mentions that Shields has a "strong preference" to pitch near his San Diego home, making the Padres the premier fit for his services.
San Diego's rotation would suddenly go from good to great, and with a revamped offense, there's no telling how high the Padres could finish in the NL West next season.
The Milwaukee Brewers Will Trade for Jonathan Papelbon
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The relationship between the Philadelphia Phillies and Jonathan Papelbon may have run its course, but that doesn't mean the closer can't help a contender in 2015.
Papelbon remains an elite late-inning option, saving 39 games with a 2.04 ERA. The 34-year-old isn't striking out as many batters as he once did, but he's still fanning over 10 per nine innings for his career.
Since his first full year as a closer in 2006, there haven't been too many better ninth-inning commodities in MLB. Papelbon ranks first in WAR, first in saves, 13th in ERA and 11th in FIP. Despite his status as a knucklehead at times, Papelbon's ability to preserve late leads makes him a sought-after piece.
The Phillies shouldn't keep Papelbon, and they likely won't. There's no need for an elite closer on a subpar team, so Philadelphia would be wise to flip him for some younger talent.
A few squads could use Papelbon's services in 2015, but the Milwaukee Brewers are considered to be the favorites to acquire the five-time All-Star, according to Jon Heyman at CBS Sports.
Heyman goes on to state that the key reason the deal hasn't been pushed through is "a gap in thoughts about player compensation going back to Philadelphia."
Complicating the matter is Papelbon's no-trade clause. Milwaukee is on that list, and Ken Rosenthal at Fox Sports is reporting that Papelbon wants his vesting option for 2016 picked up in order for him to waive his no-trade rights.
Francisco Rodriguez remains on the market, and he enjoyed a successful run in Milwaukee. But K-Rod doesn't evoke the same fear from opposing hitters as he used to, so the Brewers would be settling for a second-tier closer.
With K-Rod, Milwaukee's bullpen ranked 20th in WAR last season, posting a 3.62 ERA. Papelbon would represent a significant upgrade for the club and could be the missing piece to a postseason berth.
Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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