Offseason Moves MLB GMs Should Wish They Could Have Back
We all make mistakes.
But for most of us normal folk, our blunders occur away from the intense gaze of millions of people. The same cannot be said for an MLB general manager, as a major league front office is often judged by the decisions it gets wrong, rather than right.
Fair or not, it comes with the territory. Shelling out lucrative contracts or parting with prospects for a dud can often be the beginning of a team's downfall.
The 2014-15 offseason may end up producing more busts than normal, due to the constant movement of this busy winter.
The Washington Nationals and Kansas City Royals made moves in order to win a World Series, while teams like the San Diego Padres and Houston Astros did everything in their power to better position themselves to contend for a playoff spot in 2015.
But will Jed Lowrie, Kendrys Morales, Wil Myers and Yunel Escobar come back to haunt their new teams down the road?
Let's get cooking.
The Houston Astros Signing Jed Lowrie to a Three-Year, $23 Million Deal
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It must be said, the Houston Astros will be much better in 2015. With some quality additions and a top-notch farm system, Houston is ready to shed its reputation as the AL's doormat.
I understand the importance of surrounding young talent with established veterans, but the Astros' signing of infielder Jed Lowrie is a head-scratcher.
And that's not a knock on Lowrie. He's a versatile infielder with the ability to play shortstop, as he's done most of his career. Over a two-year stretch from 2012-2013, Lowrie ranked fourth out of MLB shortstops in homers and eighth in WAR.
It's not fair to remove a two-year sample size from the discussion because it's still part of the picture. But Lowrie's three-year, $23 million deal might be a product of one solid stretch of baseball. Excluding 2012-13, Lowrie has hit only 25 home runs and driven in 167 runs in 392 games in his major league career.
Plus he's a marginal defender at best. His 0.9 UZR/150 in 2014 proves he's nothing to write home about with regard to his glove work.
But honestly that's not even the issue, as Lowrie is your prototypical stopgap shortstop. But with the highly touted Carlos Correa nearing a big league debut, $23 million over three years is a foolish investment.
Correa is MLB.com's No. 3 overall prospect for 2015. A broken fibula derailed him last season, but most accounts see him ready for "the Show" this time next year. Correa was selected with the first overall pick in the 2012 draft and hit .320 with 147 wRC+ as an 18-year-old in 2013.
Sure, Lowrie provides the Astros with the luxury of pacing Correa's big league arrival, but a player of his caliber won't be in the minor leagues long. Lowrie's career doesn't deserve a $23 million contract, and he'll likely hinder Houston's propensity to promote Correa, even if he proves he's ready for the promotion.
The Kansas City Royals Signing Kendrys Morales to a Two-Year, $17 Million Deal
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The Kansas City Royals needed to replace the production of the departed Billy Butler, but Kendrys Morales won't be worth the price tag.
Morales is coming off his worst season in the big leagues. He slashed .218/.274/.338 in 98 games with the Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners in 2014. Yes, a starting DH posted a .338 slugging percentage, but when you combine that with a negative WAR and 72 wRC+, the Royals' decision becomes baffling.
The 31-year-old is being paid due to success earlier in his career.
He was one of the better hitters in baseball in 2009, hitting .306 with 34 homers and 108 RBI. Morales was up to more of the same in 2010, before breaking his ankle while infamously celebrating a walk-off grand slam.
Since then, he's only been an average slugger.
He returned in 2012 to hit over 20 dingers and drive in 73 runs. 2013 was similarly solid, but he was only able to muster matching 119 wRC+ in both seasons. While the signs of deteriorating skills were present, his intense drop-off in production last season should have convinced the Royals to run—no, sprint—the other away.
At his best, Morales was an extra-base hit machine. But his isolated power mark has dipped from an impressive .263 in 2009 to an equally dreadful .120 last year.
Jeff Sullivan at FanGraphs emphasizes Morales' diminished value after a subpar 2014:
"He'll receive plenty of interest, and come February he'll be in somebody's camp, but Morales isn't worth signing as a bench guy because he has no defensive flexibility. And he's not worth signing as a regular DH because he hasn't been the "hitter" part of the title for a year. He has to prove himself again, and I have to think the bet he'll find is a minor-league contract with a spring invitation.
"
Well, that definitely didn't happen.
I'm not saying Butler is worth the three-year, $30 million deal he earned from the Oakland A's, but you have to think that the defending AL champions may have been better off keeping their longtime DH instead of rolling the dice on Morales.
The New York Mets Signing Michael Cuddyer to a Two-Year, $21 Million Deal
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The New York Mets figure to be postseason contenders for years to come. With a bevy of young, talented arms, the future looks bright for the club from Queens.
But the Mets will still need to support that staff with quality run production, and Michael Cuddyer was inked to a two-year, $21 million deal to do just that.
While the move makes sense on paper, it remains one the club should have avoided.
Injuries are fickle and difficult to predict, but it's safe to say a 140-game campaign from Cuddyer would be a stretch. The 35-year-old hasn't accomplished that feat since 2010, and only four times since 2001.
But when he's been healthy he's been productive; there's no question about that.
Cuddyer was one of the best hitters in baseball in 2013, winning the National League batting title and hitting 20 homers. But he's still a lifetime .279 hitter with a career 113 wRC+.
Plus his career years occurred in the friendly confines of Coors Field, so you have to take them with a grain of salt.
The Mets will be paying an average outfielder $21 million over the next two seasons. And he's injury-prone. And he's 35. Oy.
To make matters worse, the Mets will lose the 15th pick in this summer's MLB draft. Here are some players drafted with that pick since 2000:
- 2013: Braden Shipley
- 2007: Devon Mesoraco
- 2004: Stephen Drew
- 2002: Scott Kazmir
- 2000: Chase Utley
Are there some duds in in that group as well? Absolutely.
But the fact remains that the Mets threw away a chance to add to their collection of young talent for an aging outfielder who has major durability issues. And that's a move the club will regret in the future.
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The Washington Nationals Trading Tyler Clippard for Yunel Escobar
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Again, it's hard to knock the Washington Nationals for adding Yunel Escobar this winter.
With Adam LaRoche leaving for the Windy City, the Nationals' infield needed to be reshuffled. Ryan Zimmerman will replace him at first base, while the left side of the infield will consist of Anthony Rendon and Ian Desmond.
Escobar will be brought in to replace the departed Asdrubal Cabrera, and he's a solid piece to add for a legitimate World Series contender.
But he's caused plenty of headaches in the majors thus far in his career, as the Nationals will be his fifth team. For all the baggage, Escobar is touting just a .276 batting average with a lifetime 101 wRC+.
It's not that he isn't an upgrade over Danny Espinosa, because he is. The problem is that Washington dealt away one of the better relievers in baseball for his services.
From 2009-2014, Tyler Clippard appeared in 412 games, striking out over 10 per nine innings and posting a 2.64 ERA. He also ranks 17th in WAR for relievers over that time span.
Eno Sarris at FanGraphs notes that Clippard has been a top-20 reliever since he broke into the league in 2010. Here's some of the praise that Sarris lays at the feet of Clippard in that article:
- No. 1 in innings pitched since 2011
- No. 1 in pop-up rate since 2011
- Top 25 in ERA since 2010
- Top 25 in strikeout rate since 2010
- Top 15 in swinging strike rate since 2009
The Nationals still have Drew Storen closing games, with the recently signed Casey Janssen acting in a supporting role. Washington's bullpen could end up being as good as it was a year ago, but swapping the reliable Clippard for the volatile Escobar may come back to haunt the defending NL East champions.
The San Diego Padres Trading for Wil Myers
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It may be unfair to criticize new San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller on the acquisition of Wil Myers, but the club could come to regret dealing away multiple prospects for an outfielder with alarming flaws.
Yes, Myers enjoyed a successful rookie season in 2013 with the Tampa Bay Rays. But Myers has yet to curtail his strikeouts at any point in his pro career. He's fanned nearly 25 percent of his at-bats in the big leagues, a number that's not too far off his minor league norms.
He also saw a major dip in his line-drive rate and a major hike in his pop-up rate in 2014. Those two changes in his batted balls led to an .098 isolated power score and 78 wRC+.
While the 24-year-old deserves a chance at redemption after the dreaded sophomore slump, he's going to be given even more responsibility in 2015 with the Padres. San Diego plans to play the 2013 American League Rookie of the Year in center field during the season ahead.
Carson Cistulli at FanGraphs is skeptical of Myers' ability to transition from right field to center field. After an in-depth analysis of the impending move, he believes that Myers is likely to concede nine more runs defensively in center this season.
Myers' drop in production was alarming as in average right fielder, but continued struggles at the dish combined with subpar defense in a premier position will cripple San Diego's playoff hopes.
Plus we have to take into account what the Padres relinquished in order to acquire Myers.
Trea Turner is the No. 62 overall prospect according to MLB.com, and he profiles as a future major league leadoff hitter with elite speed and steady on-base skills. Joe Ross is a former first-round pick with improving strikeout numbers and consistently low walk rates.
While Myers fits the Padres' current "win now" mentality, he comes to the West Coast with plenty of question marks. While Matt Kemp and Justin Upton may be getting more of the attention, San Diego's key for the season ahead is Myers' ability to return to his prior offensive form.
Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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