Fading MLB Stars Who Are Still Crucial Pieces of 2015 Contenders
How does one define a baseball player's peak?
There are multiple opinions out there if you're looking for an in-depth analysis, and some even believe that there aren't peak years at all. While it's different for every player, it's clear that once they reach a certain age, their bodies—and more importantly, their production—start to deteriorate.
Where can we find these players? They're all over the league. For the sake of this list, I'm going to focus on the ones who play on contending teams.
How do I define "contending," you ask? I looked at two things:
- FanGraphs' projections for 2015: I only considered players from teams that are expected to finish with a .500 record or better. So for the fans in Minnesota, Joe Mauer is unfortunately still declining despite not getting mentioned on this list.
- The player had at least one season of a WAR of five or greater.
Let's get started with players who are either coming off one subpar season or an injury-prone 2014.
Disturbing Injury Trends
1 of 6
Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals
As a 23-year-old in his second full season, Molina hit .219 with a .274 on-base percentage and a .321 slugging percentage. Eight seasons later, he's been to six All-Star Games, finished in the top five of the NL MVP vote twice and has inched his way into the Hall of Fame conversation as the best catcher of this generation.
In 2014, Molina tore ligaments in his knee, and he was limited to just 110 games. For a normal 32-year-old, we'd expect a bounce-back year. For an 11-year starting catcher, we have to worry if this is the beginning of the end of his durability that allowed him to play an average of 132 games from 2006-13.
Molina is the Cardinals' MVP. Without him, the National League Central playoff picture shifts, as the rest of the NL Central teams' playoff chances get a whole lot better.
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, Washington Nationals
Zimmerman played a career-low 61 games last season due to a nagging hamstring injury. He was also diagnosed with a degenerative shoulder condition, and he has been shifted to first base this season because he could no longer handle the rigors of playing third.
After averaging 24 home runs and a .487 slugging percentage from 2009-13, Zimmerman hit just five home runs last season with a .449 slugging percentage.
The Nationals roster is so loaded, that if Zimmerman doesn't return to his pre-injury numbers, Washington will still likely be able to contend in the NL. However, this is a team with World Series aspirations.
Adam LaRoche (79 home runs over the last three season) is now playing in Chicago, so Zimmerman will need to find a way to replace that lost production.
Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red sox
2 of 6
Dustin Pedroia barely made it onto his own slide.
In 2013, he finished seventh in the American League MVP vote, despite being limited by a wrist injury all season. He still had a 4.4 WAR.
My concern revolves around his declining peripherals.
His slugging percentage has dropped for four straight seasons. His batting average and on-base percentage were .307 and .387, respectively, in 2011. Last season, they dropped to .278 and .337, respectively. His oWAR was 6.1 in 2011, and it was 2.7 last year.
Pedroia proclaimed "I'm back," and he's been "lifting like a maniac," which are obviously great signs for him and the Red Sox. Even with the offseason additions of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval (among others), for Boston to leave the AL East's cellar and return to the playoffs, it'll need a healthy season from the 2008 AL MVP.
A.J. Burnett, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
3 of 6
Considering A.J. Burnett had the most losses in all of baseball last season, it's hard to figure out why he's on this list. Especially considering he thought about retiring after the 2014 season.
He's never made an All-Star team. He turned 38 years old in January.
Why is he on this list?
For one, it looks like he's going to be a middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Pittsburgh Pirates, who've made the playoffs for two straight seasons after missing the postseason 21 times in a row.
In addition, in spite of his terrible record last season, he's had a remarkably consistent career. For nine straight seasons, from 2005-13, Burnett won 10 or more games, winning 16 as recently as 2012 with these Pirates.
He spent two years in Pittsburgh, from 2012-13. During his time there, he had a 3.17 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), good for the 13th-best mark in MLB. His 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings were 14th-best in all of baseball.
The Philadelphia Phillies were awful last season. Burnett was pitching through a hernia. This is a guy who has been very good recently, and provided he's recovered from last season's mental and physical beating, he could have a tremendous impact on the NL Central race.
.png?w=256)
CC Sabathia, LHP, New York Yankees
4 of 6
If the New York Yankees want to contend this season, they're going to need the CC Sabathia of old to show up.
The 2007 Cy Young Award winner hasn't been anything close to good these last two seasons. He started just eight games last season due to a knee injury, and he allowed a league-high 112 earned runs in 2013.
Before the past two seasons, he had essentially been Mr. Consistency. From 2003-12, Sabathia averaged 217 innings pitched, 16 wins and a 3.40 FIP. In fact, he had the second-highest WAR (52.2) among all pitchers during that time span, finishing behind Roy Halladay.
In a rotation where Sabathia may need to be the No. 2 starter behind Masahiro Tanaka, who has injury concerns of his own, the Yankees desperately need their former ace to have a bounce-back season.
Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton, Los Angeles Angels
5 of 6
Update
Josh Hamilton will miss 6-8 weeks after undergoing surgery to repair the AC joint in his right shoulder on Wednesday, after he aggravated the injury during workouts in the past week.
He may return in time for the April 6 opener.
The Los Angeles Angels would certainly love to see more of what the above picture depicts. Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton celebrating at home plate.
The potential is certainly there.
Hamilton started the 2014 season with a bang: .458 batting average, .792 slugging percentage and two home runs in his first 24 at-bats. Then, sliding back into first base, Hamilton fractured his thumb and was limited to just eight home runs for the rest of the season while hitting just .228 after the All-Star break.
Hamilton turns 34 years old in May, so he's certainly past his peak. However, he's also just three years removed from a 43-home run, 128 RBI season. If he can find a way to meet in the middle, the Angels would take that and run with it.
Want to hear a scary thought? The Angels still owe Albert Pujols $189 million through the 2021 season.
Ouch.
Lucky for us, we only have to worry about the 2015 season and don't have to pay that bill because for this season, Pujols should still be a valuable contributor.
Since leaving St. Louis, Pujols hasn't lived up to expectations. His declining plate discipline is a concern, as his 6.9 walk percentage was the lowest of his career. He's also striking out more than he ever did with the Cardinals (three straight seasons with a strikeout percentage greater than 10) while generating less power.
Having said all of that, his 3.3 WAR was eighth among first basemen last season.
There are plenty of flaws in these declining stars. If we just look at 2015 in a vacuum, however, there is plenty of reason for hope.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
6 of 6
Considering he hasn't finished outside the top 10 of the MVP vote in the past six seasons, it's safe to say I put Miguel Cabrera on this list with different expectations than the six names before him.
He remains one of the top 10 hitters in baseball. He may bounce back and win his third MVP in four seasons. That would not surprise me.
However, the reason he makes this list is that it also would not surprise me if he followed a similar decline to Albert Pujols and isn't a threat to make the All-Star team.
These guys are both first-ballot Hall of Famers. Through their age-31 seasons, you could put their numbers against anybody in the history of the game, and you'd have an argument that there's nobody who did it better.
But as I alluded to in the intro, every player has his peak, and after watching Cabrera deal with injuries these last few seasons, I'm starting to worry that we're entering his decline stage.
It appears he won't be starting the 2015 season on time due to offseason surgery to fix his foot and ankle problems. At the end of the 2013 season and playoff run, he missed time due to a bad back and a hip flexor injury.
His former manager Jim Leyland spoke about his toughness in 2013: "He's not 100 percent. He's been playing in a lot of pain. He's a real tough guy. I think if anybody knew the pain he's playing in, they probably wouldn't believe it."
The Tigers still have a roster loaded with talent, but the AL Central has developed into one of the best divisions in baseball. The Cleveland Indians are a legit threat. The Chicago White Sox added a lot of talent this offseason. The Kansas City Royals were a Madison Bumgarner away from winning the World Series.
The Tigers need every bit of Miguel Cabrera's MVP presence in 2015, and after losing Max Scherzer, even that may not be enough.
It's one thing to play through these injuries as a younger player. Heading into his age-32 season, how much longer can Cabrera remain elite?
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, MLB.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted/linked.
To talk baseball or follow the latest rumors, check in with me on Twitter: @ZPetersel.
.png?w=480)
