French Open 2015: Early Predictions Post-Australian Open
Well, the fist Slam of 2015 is officially in the books, and Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic are richer, both in a historical context and in a very literal one.
Now, instead of getting caught up on missed sleep during the fortnight, it's time to go ahead and look forward to the French Open. Sure, there's a lot of tennis to be played before the tours convene back together in Paris, but it's never too early to start making predictions, right?
Well, if you agree with that statement, we've certainly got you covered. Here are some early predictions for the 2015 French Open.
The Australian Open-French Open Double Will Remain Elusive
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It's a tale as old as time: A man and a woman start out the year playing wonderful tennis, win the Australian Open and then become the French Open favorites.
But this story rarely has a happy ending. The last woman to win the Australian Open and French Open title back-to-back was Jennifer Capriati in 2001. For the men, it was Jim Courier in 1992.
There are a lot of reasons for this—the surface change, the pressure of being the hunted one and the fact that it's hard to win back-to-back Slams anyway. So, when you're tempted to pick Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic to win the French Open in a few months, think twice.
Madison Keys Will Make a Splash Again
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Madison Keys had her big breakthrough at the Australian Open, and I certainly don't think that it will be a fluke.
The 19-year-old—who will no longer be a teen by the time the French Open comes around—has many more Slam runs in her future. If you don't believe me, just listen to Serena.
"The way she played today I definitely think she has potential to be No. 1 and win Grand Slams," Williams told reporters after her semifinal win over Keys, via AustralianOpen.org. "It's exciting to see."
While I don't think Keys is ready for world domination quite yet, I do think she'll make another trip to the second week at the French Open.
Victoria Azarenka Will Be a True Contender Again
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Due to persistent injuries, we haven't seen Victoria Azarenka make it to the semifinals of a Slam since the 2013 U.S. Open, where she lost to Serena in a three-set match. She did fight her way to the quarterfinals of the 2014 Australian Open and U.S. Open, but that's as much of an impact as the Belarusian has had at majors recently.
Currently, Azarenka is ranked No. 49 in the world, a long way from the spot she used to occupy at the top of the rankings.
But by the time the French Open rolls around, I expect her to be back in championship form. She's healthy now, and the next four months will give her a chance to get her game polished and her ranking up.
Clay isn't her best surface, but she did make it to the semis in 2013, and there's no reason why she can't make it that far again this year.
The WTA is more fun when Azarenka is in top form, and I expect that to happen sooner rather than later.
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A French Man Will Have a Thrilling Run to the Semis
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There are a lot of talented French players right now, but you wouldn't necessarily know it if you looked at the ATP rankings.
Currently, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the top-ranked Frenchman at No. 12, followed by Gilles Simon at No. 19 and Gael Monfils at No. 20. Richard Gasquet has fallen all the way down to No. 28.
While these guys—who all have top-10 talent and have been ranked accordingly before—are down in the rankings due to either unlucky injuries or maddening inconsistency, it's hard to keep that much talent down for too long.
In front of their home crowd, expect at least one of the four men mentioned above to have a crowd-pleasing, overly dramatic, can't-miss run to the semis—and potentially beyond. It will be fun to watch.
Roger Federer Will Lose Early Again
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Look, I don't expect Roger Federer to fade into obscurity or anything like that. In fact, I expect to keep seeing him ranked in the top five and in the conversation for majors for another year or two.
However, I don't expect him to have another deep run at the French Open. While Federer was an extremely underrated player on clay in his prime, at this stage in his career the surface simply exposes his lack of movement and shaky defense too much.
Therefore, I expect to see the 2009 French Open champion leave Paris a week earlier than he would like this June. Honestly, it might be a blessing in disguise—it will give him a chance to rest up for his best chance to win a major at this point in his career: Wimbledon.
Maria Sharapova Will Make It to the Final
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By now, you all know about Claypova, the mid-career reinvention that turned Maria Sharapova from a "cow on ice" into a player who has won the French Open two times in three years.
Her French domination is remarkable in its proficiency as well as its consistency. Sharapova has made the final in Paris for the last three years, and she hasn't lost before the semifinals since 2010. The slower clay simply gives her game the time it needs to develop and be at its most lethal.
So, I suppose I'm not being a bold prognosticator when I say to go ahead and pencil the Russian into the final again this year.
I'm not as confident that she'll win—a player on a hot run, such as Simona Halep last year, could get the best of her in the final. (And, of course, if I'm wrong about Serena and she's waiting in the final, Sharapova will be in trouble.) But Sharapova will be back to the final Saturday of the French Open for the fourth year in a row this year.
Rafael Nadal Will Win His 10th French Open Title
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Only four men in the Open Era—including Rafael Nadal—have won 10 or more Slams. This year, I expect that Nadal will win his 10th French Open title, his 15th major overall. That's pretty spectacular.
While Nadal struggled a bit at the Australian Open, losing meekly to Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals, he showed many signs of getting back on track after a tumultuous second half of last season left him out of sorts heading into Oz.
But the truth is, though, no matter what Nadal looks like on hard court, he's simply a different player when he steps on the clay, particularly at Roland Garros. So even if Novak Djokovic wins everything from now until the French Open begins, I'll still consider Nadal the favorite for the title. Considering his 66-1 record there, it would be foolish not to.
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