MLB Teams That Have Quietly Taken Step Forward This Offseason
ESPN's David Schoenfield provided a great list of surprise Major League Baseball teams over the last decade that went from finishing under .500 to making the playoffs the following season. It's happened nine times over the past three years, including the last two World Series champions!
There are plenty of options to choose from for the 2015 season when looking at most improved, including the Boston Red Sox, who spent $183 million on two players (among many other deals), but that wouldn't qualify as a "quiet" way of going about things
To make my list, I tried to find teams that made a majority of under-the-radar moves (signing one big fish or two is optional) and used FanGraphs' projected win totals for 2015 as my go-to source to find the biggest projected improvements.
There were a few obvious teams, such as the aforementioned Red Sox (17-win improvement) and the Cubs (11-win improvement), but the teams I grabbed weren't in the spotlight as much yet are still projected to have a much better team heading into 2015.
Seattle Mariners
1 of 3
- Acquire OF Seth Smith from San Diego Padres for RHP Brandon Maurer
- Acquire OF Justin Ruggiano for RHP Matt Brazis
- Sign OF Nelson Cruz to four-year deal
The list of MLB transactions for the Mariners isn't very long, but don't underestimate the sneakiness; it's the quality of the moves that we need to worry about.
The Seattle Mariners won 87 games last season, missing the playoffs by one game despite an outfield that produced the second-fewest wins in all of baseball, according to FanGraphs.
I've already raved about their lineup in the past, so to briefly reiterate, they have the potential to be a top-10 WAR outfield this season. I love the Seth Smith (.839 career OPS vs. lefties) and Justin Ruggiano (.836 career OPS vs. righties) platoon. Austin Jackson isn't the 3.65 average WAR player he was with the Tigers, but having him roam the spacious Safeco Field for a full season should make him an above-average value.
As if the outfield production wasn't bad enough, the Mariners also produced the second-fewest wins from their DH spot, finishing 14th out of 15 American League teams.
Enter Nelson Cruz. The reigning MLB home run champion.
Shifting from Camden Yards to Safeco Field sounds like a big deal. However, looking at ESPN's Park Factor, it won't be as much as advertised. While Safeco was the worst place for hitters last season, Camden Yards finished as the 22nd best. In fact, Safeco Field was actually better for home run hitters, so it's possible Cruz is better off playing his home games in Seattle, considering where the majority of his value will be generated.
So yes, the Mariners did not make a lot of offseason moves. However, the development of their young players, such as James Paxton, Taijuan Walker, Mike Zunino and Dustin Ackley among others, will prove to be more than enough to push the Mariners into the postseason for the first time since Ichiro Suzuki's rookie season, back in 2001.
(Wow, now I feel old).
FanGraphs' Projected Win Total Increase: 2
Miami Marlins
2 of 3
- Sign OF Ichiro Suzuki: one-year deal
- Trade 3B Casey McGehee to San Francisco Giants
- Acquire UTIL Martin Prado from New York Yankees in package deal including RHP Nathan Eovaldi
- Sign 1B/OF Michael Morse to two-year deal
- Acquire 2B Dee Gordon, RHP Dan Haren in seven-player trade with Los Angeles Dodgers
- Acquire RHP Mat Latos from Cincinnati Reds in three-player deal
- Trade LHP Dan Jennings to Chicago White Sox for RHP Andre Rienzo
- Acquire RHP Aaron Crow from Royals in three-player deal
- Sign OF Giancarlo Stanton to 13-year, $325 million extension
Wait, what? The Miami Marlins spent money?!
I must be dreaming.
The Marlins were one of baseball's most improved teams in 2014, increasing their win total by 13 games. After all of these transactions, they're looking for more of the same, adding power and speed to their lineup, with some power arms to their rotation.
The Marlins finished 22nd in WAR among second baseman last season (0.5 WAR), so bringing in Dee Gordon and his 3.1 WAR should greatly increase their production. Selling high on Casey McGehee's season was a smart move, and buying low on Martin Prado to replace him should not only replace McGehee, but also surpass his inflated production from the position.
The Marlins also struggled at first base last season, finishing 24th in WAR at the position. Staying healthy isn't Michael Morse's forte, but playing him at first base will limit his defensive shortcomings and potentially keep him on the field and protect MLB's highest-paid player in Giancarlo Stanton.
From 2010-2013 Mat Latos averaged a 3.63 WAR. Last season, that number dropped down to 1.5, as he was limited to just 102.1 innings due to injury. His strikeout numbers were down a bit as well, but the peripherals were in line with his career numbers—a 3.65 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). Heading into his free-agent season, the 27-year-old will have plenty of motivation to stay healthy and return to form.
Their biggest "addition" in 2015 will be the return of Jose Fernandez from Tommy John surgery around midseason. The 22-year-old was flat-out dominant in his 2014 encore, with a 2.18 FIP and 0.948 WHIP, so his return will be the icing on the cake for the Marlins' offseason.
Speed? Check. Power? Check. Starting pitching depth? Check. Superstar potential? Check.
For a team full of young players with high-ceiling potentials, simply heading into 2015 with the same roster would have provided some improvement. Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich are two of the game's best young outfielders that nobody talks about. Playing in a division with two fading powers (Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies) and just one World Series contender (Washington Nationals), the Marlins should be able to take advantage and pile up some extra wins.
Health will be a question, but the Marlins will be a team to reckon with in 2015.
FanGraphs' Projected Win Total Increase: 4
Houston Astros
3 of 3
- Traded C Carlos Corporan to Texas Rangers for RHP Akeem Bostick
- Signed CF Colby Rasmus to one-year deal
- Trade OF Dexter Fowler to Chicago Cubs for RHP Dan Straily and 3B Luis Valbuena
- Acquire Atlanta Braves C/OF/ Evan Gattis for RHP Michael Foltynewicz in five-player trade
- Signed SS Jed Lowrie to three-year deal
- Signed RHP Pat Neshek to two-year deal
- Sign RHP Luke Gregerson to three-year deal
Coming off the worst season in franchise history, the Houston Astros had a lot of room for improvement in 2014. They increased their win total by 19 games, from 51 to 70, but still finished 28 games behind the Los Angeles Angels in the AL West. While it's clear the Astros still have a way to go, general manager Jeff Luhnow tried to fix his team's weaknesses, and as far as 2015 is concerned, he did a stellar job considering his resources.
The Astros finished worst in WAR at first base and third base last season. Chris Carter (37 home runs last season) played the majority of his games at DH. But with the addition of Evan Gattis (22 home runs last season) he may get more time at first base, which will boost their production. Gattis should help the Astros' weakness in left field, where they finished 27th in terms of WAR, he just has to prove he can stay productive over the course of a full season, as his stats plummet after the All-Star break.
Trading away Dexter Fowler will hurt, but by getting Luis Valbuena, the Astros may finally have a reliable option at third base. Valbuena had a late breakout with the Cubs over the past two seasons, hitting 28 home runs combined. His .342 wOBA (weighted on-base percentage) and 116 wRC+ (weight runs created plus) were seventh among qualified third baseman last season. He was a line-drive machine, and while his platoon splits leave something to be desired (.463 slugging percentage vs. right-handed pitchers, .301 vs. left-handed pitchers), he should be a big boost at 3B for Houston.
Signing relievers to long-term deals has proven to be a risky proposition, but since we're just looking at 2015, adding late-inning arms in Pat Neshek and Luke Gregerson will prove vital. The Astros finished with the second-worst bullpen in baseball last season in terms of WAR.
ESPN's David Schoenfield pointed out a few areas for improvement: "They were just 57-11 when leading entering the eighth inning and 61-8 when leading entering the ninth, as the bullpen had the worst ERA in the majors. The average team lost 5.9 games when leading after seven and 3.3 when leading after eight."
Even if Neshek and Gregerson are just average, half of those 19 losses could turn into wins. If they perform as well as they did in 2014? Who knows, maybe the Astros can creep into the 80-win column and head into 2016 as potential contenders.
Baseball has proven time and again—especially over the last three seasons—teams can come out of nowhere and contend. I certainly didn't have a Giants-Royals World Series matchup in April; I didn't even have it in October when they both made it to the playoffs.
There will be a team in 2015 that shocks us. As spring training approaches, it's anybody's guess who that will be.
FanGraphs' Projected Win Total Increase: 7
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, MLB.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted/linked.
To talk baseball or follow the latest rumors, check in with me on Twitter: @ZPetersel.
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