Bayern Munich Ending Pursuit Adds to Evidence Marco Reus Has Made His Decision

Bayern Munich know what it is like to be rejected by Marco Reus, so perhaps there was an element of self-preservation in play when it was reported on Friday that the German champions had stepped out of the proverbial race to sign the forward.

German newspaper Bild ran a story (via ESPN FC) announcing that the club had decided not to pursue a deal for Reus—who famously turned down Bayern in 2012 when he joined Borussia Dortmund from Borussia Monchengladbach—either in January or this summer, when a release clause famously means he could be available for around £25 million.

A couple of reasons were proposed: One being that manager Pep Guardiola is concerned about the player’s recent track record with injuries, with another being that the club was concerned about the potential backlash at signing another Dortmund star, so soon after bringing Mario Gotze and Robert Lewandowski to the Allianz Arena.

This is despite the fact that, up until very recently, important officials at the club had spoken very highly about the 25-year-old Germany international. As recently as the end of October, Bayern’s chief executive Karl-Heinz Rummenigge was happy to acknowledge that the versatile attacker was a target.

"We know what quality he has and we also know what clause he has," Rummenigge told German channel Sport1 (via ESPN FC). "A young Germany international with such quality is probably interesting for us.”

Rummenigge went on to acknowledge the relationship with Dortmund was strained—“[they] have informed us that they don't see any point in eating together with Bayern Munich,” he added—but the issues mentioned in this week’s Bild report were all also in play two or three months ago, suggesting another, unnamed, issue has now arisen.

Matthias Schrader/Associated Press

The theory of Occam’s Razor, that the simplest explanation is often the correct one, suggests that Bayern, therefore, have learned very recently that something has changed in Reus’s situation—that another club have, or are very close to, securing a deal, or that Reus has decided he has no interest in following in the footsteps of Gotze and Lewandowski (remember how coldly he greeted the latter in their first game on opposing sides?).

Already scorned once by Reus, it seems the Bavarians could be ensuring they do not lose face by publicly getting out ahead of the news.

As perhaps the most talented individual player who we know with some certainty to be available in the transfer market, if not now then certainly by the summer, the speculation around Reus has long been frenzied, often contradictory and rarely based in reliable fact. Nevertheless, in the recent actions of Bayern and others we can slowly start to piece together some movement in the saga.

Bayern have (seemingly) pulled out of the stakes, while this week Dortmund manager Jurgen Klopp was confident the forward would be going nowhere before deadline day.

"I have a good feeling that Marco Reus will continue in the club for a little longer," Klopp said (per the Daily Star). Note the use of “little” however. It is always dangerous to infer too much with managers, but this is exactly what one might say to the press if you knew a key player was off in the summer.

Dortmund seem to have long resigned themselves to the fact Reus was likely to depart in the summer of 2015, a disappointing endgame that became all the more inexorable with every poor result the club picked up in the Bundesliga during the first half of the 2014-15 season.

The signing of Kevin Kampl, a similar player to Reus, at the start of the transfer window can hardly be seen as anything other than succession planning, with the 24-year-old given six months at the club to assimilate under less scrutiny and pressure, before taking on a greater first team role at the start of next season when some big players have left.

The actions of other clubs are informative, too. Chelsea have long been linked with Reus yet, as the clock ticks towards deadline day, it is a deal for Juan Cuadrado, a very similar sort of player to Reus, that the club are suddenly close to concluding.

Cuadrado would seem to be a marginal upgrade on Andre Schurrle, who is being sold to Wolfsburg to facilitate the deal, but as the Colombian looks set to cost over £25m it is hard not to wonder if Jose Mourinho would have been happy to make such a switch in the summer if it was Reus he was getting instead.

If Mourinho knew Reus would not be available, however, then adding Cuadrado to his Champions League options for the knockout stages (Reus, if he moved anywhere, would be ineligible) makes sense. He undoubtedly improves the squad, enhancing Chelsea's already prodigious attacking threat.

The Blues could theoretically still add the German in the summer (like Schurrle, Reus can play as a main striker, a significant advantage) but, if the club still needs to balance the books in the transfer market, who would or could they realistically offload to do so? Unless Mourinho is willing to ditch Willian or Oscar (who both offer more defensively than Reus and are qualities the Portuguese seems to value even in his attackers), signing Cuadrado would seem to shut the door on a Reus deal.

Michael Probst/Associated Press

That leaves Manchester City and Real Madrid as the two most realistic remaining suitors (Liverpool and Arsenal continue to be mentioned in dispatches, but the appeal of either as far as Reus is concerned can be debated).

City have already spent nearly £30 million this month on Wilfried Bony, a deal that means they realistically need to wait until the summer to make another big splash (due in part to financial fair play rules and regulations). They have not bought a player like Reus, however, and with James Milner potentially leaving in the summer could certainly do with one.

Real Madrid have also been busy in the transfer market, but have not bought a player for Reus’s position (if we assume, for now, that Martin Odegaard is not going to make a significant first-team impact for a few seasons). That is not to say they need to, of course; the club already having an unparalleled wealth of brilliant attacking players, a cohort so vast Carlo Ancelotti is often struggling to distribute enough playing time to keep all of them happy.

Nevertheless, come the summer, both clubs would appear to have the scope to fit Reus into their plans—although they may have to sell others first to keep their squad from getting unbalanced.

That is perhaps the only hope Dortmund have, that Reus decides between his many suitors but then discovers, when the time finally comes, that the club in question are unable to find a way to clear the space required to fit the player into their changing room and on their balance sheet.

"I still believe we have a chance of keeping Marco in his hometown," as Dortmund chief executive Hans-Joachim Watzke said (per Goal). But it is surely no more than a slim chance.

Until there is an official announcement, the speculation surrounding Reus will continue to bubble away. Nevertheless, with Bayern publicly backing away and Chelsea pursuing other targets this week, it seems increasingly as if a decision has already been made.