Ranking MLB's Top 10 Rotation Trios Entering 2015
Some MLB teams just have so much pitching it's not even fair.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Washington Nationals definitely fit that description. Next season, those clubs will be trotting out two of the strongest starting staffs in the majors. The Nats have aces all over the rotation, but for the Dodgers, it all starts with the big three.
What follows is a look around the league at the top 10 rotation trios entering 2015. There were an array of factors that went into the ranking process, but none was more important than the way the respective trios pitched in 2014. Stats like ERA, strikeout rate, walk rate and WAR were all taken into consideration.
It wasn't just about last season, and as a result, broader track records were also part of the equation. Plus, factors like injury histories and the upside of rising stars were also considered.
Thanks primarily to the fact that they don't face designated hitters on a regular basis, National League teams dominate the top spots in the rankings. However, there were still several American League trios who cracked the top 10.
Honorable Mentions
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Before getting started with the top 10, here's a look at the trios who were in the running for a spot but who ultimately missed the cut:
- Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran, Alex Wood and Shelby Miller
- Cincinnati Reds: Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Homer Bailey
- Chicago Cubs: Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Jason Hammel
- Milwaukee Brewers: Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza and Wily Peralta
- Toronto Blue Jays: Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey and Marcus Stroman
10. Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Trio
- Francisco Liriano
- Gerrit Cole
- Vance Worley
The Pittsburgh Pirates have an incredible one-two punch in Francisco Liriano and Gerrit Cole.
Re-signed to a three-year, $42 million deal, Liriano should prove to be one of the best values of the entire class of this winter's free-agent starters. In two seasons with the the NL Central team, the left-hander owns a 3.20 ERA and a 9.4 K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings) ratio. Cole, who is still just 24 years old, has already asserted himself as one of the most promising young starters in baseball.
The Pirates remain anchored in the No. 10 spot in the rankings because it's up to debate just who exactly deserves the distinction as the team's third-best starter. For now, Vance Worley, who put up a 2.85 ERA in 18 outings in 2014, gets the nod. However, A.J. Burnett could eventually earn that role.
9. Baltimore Orioles
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The Trio
- Chris Tillman
- Wei-Yin Chen
- Kevin Gausman
The Baltimore Orioles don't have the biggest names, but there's a lot to like about this staff.
Chris Tillman cemented his spot as the club's No. 1 starter by posting a 3.34 ERA in 2014 and racking up more than 200 innings of work for the second season in a row. Wei-Yin Chen is rebounding off of his best season in the major leagues, as he put up a 3.54 ERA for the Orioles. The lefty also demonstrated excellent command, recording the fifth-lowest walk rate in the AL (1.7 bases on balls allowed per nine innings pitched.
The wild card for the O's is Kevin Gausman. At the end of last season, the right-hander began to show the talent that made him the No. 4 overall pick in the 2012 MLB draft. In his final five starts, Gausman compiled a 2.87 ERA.
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8. New York Mets
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The Trio
- Jacob deGrom
- Zack Wheeler
- Matt Harvey
Thanks to the club's array of high-upside young starters, the future is looking extremely bright for the New York Mets.
Last season, Jacob deGrom needed just 22 starts to snag the NL Rookie of the Year Award, as he posted a 2.69 ERA. Zack Wheeler has shown a knack for piling up punchouts and owns a 3.50 ERA in parts of two seasons in Queens.
Then there's Matt Harvey. The right-hander hasn't pitched for the Mets since August 2013, as he's been rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. That season, the starter went 9-5 with a 2.27 ERA in his first big league action. If Harvey can match those numbers in 2015, this ranking will look ridiculously low in a few months.
7. Seattle Mariners
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The Trio
- Felix Hernandez
- Hisashi Iwakuma
- James Paxton
Felix Hernandez gets a lot of the credit for the Seattle Mariners' landing the No. 7 spot in the rankings. Simply put, there aren't a lot of pitchers who can do what King Felix does. Last year, the 28-year-old reeled off a 2.14 ERA, which was the lowest mark in the AL. Hernandez has now pitched at least 200 innings in seven consecutive seasons and has never posted an ERA higher than 3.47 during that run.
There are some concerns about the other two starters who make up this trio. Hisashi Iwakuma opened up the 2014 season on the disabled list and ended it in a major slump. In September, the right-hander was battered to the tune of a 7.61 ERA. Meanwhile, James Paxton has all sorts of potential, but the 26-year-old only has 17 starts on his big league resume.
6. Detroit Tigers
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The Trio
- David Price
- Anibal Sanchez
- Justin Verlander
Even with the departures of Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello, the Detroit Tigers still have platy of prominent starters left to headline the rotation.
At the top of that list is David Price, who underwhelmed after his midseason trade from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Tigers. Price told Shawn Windsor of the Detroit Free Press that he expects the 2015 season to go much better now that he's more "comfortable" in Motown.
"It was a transition period. I just wasn't comfortable yet. Comfort comes with time, and I've had time here, and I got to spend time with (the team) last year on the field and away from the field, and it's a lot more comfortable now."
It's also worth noting that 2015 will be Price's contract season. With a big year, the lefty ace will set himself up for a monster payday next winter.
While Anibal Sanchez has been a reliable top-of-the-rotation starter since joining the team in 2012, Justin Verlander remains an enigma for the Tigers.
If Detroit is going to overcome the losses of Scherzer and Porcello, Verlander will need to be significantly more effective than a season ago when he checked in with a 4.54 ERA. According to Buster Olney of ESPN, Verlander is one of the top 10 "linchpin" players in all of baseball entering 2015.
5. San Diego Padres
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The Trio
- Andrew Cashner
- Tyson Ross
- Ian Kennedy
Last season, the San Diego Padres had one of the best 1-2-3 combos in baseball in Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross and Ian Kennedy. Cashner and Ross both checked in with sub-3.00 ERA's, and Kennedy had his strongest campaign since 2011.
While Ross has now put together excellent showings in back-to-back seasons, there are some questions as to whether Cashner and Kennedy will be able to repeat their success in 2015.
For Cashner, it's question of health. During his five-year, big league career, the right-hander has never totaled more than 26 starts in a single season.
For Kennedy, it's a question of consistency. Last year, the starter posted a 3.63 ERA as he eclipsed the 200-innings mark. However, back in 2013, Kennedy was one of the worst starters in the NL, ending the season with a 4.91 ERA.
4. Chicago White Sox
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The Trio
- Chris Sale
- Jeff Samardzija
- Jose Quintana
Quietly, the Chicago White Sox have built one of the most imposing trios of starters in the majors.
It all starts with Chris Sale, who is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. The lefty has been an All-Star in each of the past three seasons and was particularly impressive in 2014. Sale ripped off a 2.17 ERA and a 10.8 K/9 ratio, as he landed in third place on the AL Cy Young Award ballot.
Sale is also one of the most underpaid pitchers in baseball. In the upcoming season, the 25-year-old will make $6 million. As Sale explained, via Scott Merkin of MLB.com, he's much more focused on bringing a World Series title to the South Side than he is on his bank account: "I don't want the payday. I want the celebration."
The White Sox have another under-appreciated lefty on the staff in Jose Quintana. The 26-year-old has topped the 200-innings mark in back-to-back seasons and posted a career-low 3.32 ERA in 2014.
Jeff Samardzija, who the club added in a offseason trade with the Oakland Athletics, rounds out the White Sox's top three. Like Quintana, Samardzija had his best season yet in 2014. While splitting the year between the Chicago Cubs and the Athletics, Samardzija recorded a 2.99 ERA. The right-hander, who's set to become a free agent at the end of 2015, also racked up more than 200 strikeouts for the second year in a row.
3. St. Louis Cardinals
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The Trio
- Adam Wainwright
- Michael Wacha
- Lance Lynn
Adam Wainwright was lights-outs for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2014, as the veteran right-hander put up a 2.32 ERA and won 20 games for the NL Central champs. There's no guarantee that the there-time All-Star will be that dominant again in 2015, as Wainwright underwent surgery on his pitching elbow in October.
To a much lesser extent, Michael Wacha also dealt with his own injury issues a season ago. The 23-year-old starter missed much of the summer with a shoulder injury and only made 19 starts during his sophomore season.
At least Lance Lynn didn't have any health problems last year. The 27-year-old has won at least 15 games in each of the past three seasons and was absolutely dealing in 2014. Lynn made 33 starts for the Cardinals and put up a career-low 2.74 ERA.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Trio
- Clayton Kershaw
- Zack Greinke
- Hyun-Jin Ryu
Clayton Kershaw was historically dominant in 2014. The left-handed starter claimed both the NL Cy Young Award and the MVP honors, as he led MLB with a 1.77 ERA. Kershaw also won 21 of his 27 starts. According to Stats Inc., as noted by Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com, the only other pitcher to ever win at least 20 of 27 starts was Sandy Koufax.
While Zack Greinke has been overshadowed by Kershaw, he's been one of the most effective starters in the NL since joining the Dodgers. In two season in Los Angeles, the 31-year-old has posted a 2.68 ERA for the NL West club.
Hyun-Jin Ryu has also stood out in his two seasons at Dodger Stadium. During that stretch, the Korean starter produced a 28-15 record and a 3.17 ERA. Ryu will be a bargain for the Dodgers in 2015, as he's set to make $4.8 million as part of a six-year, $36 million deal.
1. Washington Nationals
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The Trio
- Max Scherzer
- Jordan Zimmermann
- Stephen Strasburg
It's not going to be a lot of fun for opposing teams to face the Washington Nationals in 2015.
In Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg, the Nats have three pitchers who could be the ace on nearly any team in baseball. All three of those starters were dealing in the second half of the 2014 season. Out of the group, Scherzer had the highest ERA at 2.87.
Washington would have secured the No. 1 spot in the rankings even if the team hadn't inked Scherzer to a seven-year, $210 million deal. With Scherzer now in the mix, there's not even room in the top three for Doug Fister, who went 16-6 with a 2.41 ERA in 2014.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com. All salary information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts on BaseballProsepctus.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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