2015 NFL Free Agents: Predicting Likeliest Players to Receive Franchise Tag

The NFL's franchise tag is a sinister beast. It takes human beings playing our most violent sport and tethers them to a franchise without one iota of their input regarding a contract that allows them to be dumped 12 months later without any future financial obligations.

While that one season is well-compensated—the average of the five highest-paid players at your position, or 120 percent of your previous salary (whichever is higher)—franchise tags eliminate long-term security in a league where it's already almost nonexistent.

Players who receive the franchise tag generally fall into two categories: stars in the process of long-term contract negotiations and guys with shaky track records coming off big years.

Teams use the tag to elongate an exclusive negotiating window or as a so-called "prove it" deal for the player. In both cases, it allows the incumbent team to avoid negotiating against an opponent desperate enough to pay well above market value for a player it wants to keep.

Fair? Probably not! But it has also been collectively bargained for and thus is a little hard to get too worked up about.

With that in mind, let's take a look at a few players likely to get hit with the distinction.

Justin Houston, OLB, Kansas City Chiefs

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The Chiefs and Houston have been negotiating a long-term contract since last offseason. They were unable to get a deal worked out, and the All-Pro pass-rusher watched on as the front office looked out for teammate after teammate.

Jamaal Charles, Alex Smith, Allen Bailey and even fullback Anthony Sherman got new deals while Houston played out the final season of his rookie contract.

This winter, come hell or high water, Houston's going to get paid. He led the NFL with 22 sacks during the regular season, coming dangerously close to besting Michael Strahan's single-season record of 22.5.

While he spent a majority of the time lined up at defensive end—an interesting wrinkle should the franchise tag come to pass—Houston's calling card is his versatility. He comes off the edge just as well standing up as he does in a three-point stance.

Pro Football Focus, which lists him at his official position (outside linebacker), graded Houston as the best pass-rusher in football.

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“I’m proud of him for what he did,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said, per BJ Kissel of the Chiefs' official website. “At no point did you feel like he was going for the record. You felt like everybody around him was pulling for him, but it wasn’t from him. He was all about winning and trying to be the leader of the defense."

The Chiefs will likely use the franchise tag to prevent Houston from hitting the open market.

A team desperate for pass-rushing help would very possibly make him the highest-paid outside linebacker in football. Clay Matthews' five-year, $66 million deal serves as a reasonable starting point.

It's likely the Chiefs would have no problem guaranteeing Houston $25-30 million. What they want to avoid is a bidding war that could have that number creeping into the $40 million area. The only way to do that is using the franchise tag and eliminating the threat before it happens.

Jason Worilds, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers 

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The Steelers used the transition tag on Worilds a year ago but are in a bit of a bind now. Their salary-cap sheet remains a Dallas Cowboys-esque minefield.

They keep pushing true cap hell into the future by extending below-average veterans and using the best short-term solution on their current stars.

Worilds remains somewhere in the murky middle. He's yet to have the type of season that puts him into the true superstar conversation. His 15.5 sacks over the last two seasons are good but not Pro Bowl-worthy.

Pro Football Focus had him ranked 15th among outside linebackers as a pass-rusher and third in run stop percentage.

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There is no question Worilds is a valuable player on the open market. But given former defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau's departure and the Steelers' cap sheet, is he worth the eight-figure cap number in 2015 that will come with the franchise tag?

"We've got to get more sacks and put more pressure on the quarterback and I think in the games we were successful, we were able to do that," owner Art Rooney recently told The Associated Press' Will Graves. "That's a key piece of the puzzle that we have to look at as we build this defense going into next year."

Worilds' lack of consistency in that area makes him an interesting candidate.

On one side, he was at times Pittsburgh's best all-around defensive player. On the other, it seems unlikely at this point he'll ever become much more than an above-average pass-rusher. The Steelers may choose to franchise him merely to avoid making any long-term commitment.

Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys

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There is no question about where Dez Bryant fits in the Cowboys' long-term planning. Owner/general manager Jerry Jones plans on keeping him in Dallas for the foreseeable future—and for good reason.

Bryant's 56 touchdown receptions are the most in the league since he entered the NFL in 2010. He led the league for the first time in scores in 2014 and has seemingly settled in around 1,300 receiving yards per season.

What's unclear is how Dallas is going to keep its stars and stay under the salary cap. Bryant and NFL leading rusher DeMarco Murray are both free agents this offseason.

The Cowboys have long been fighting an uphill battle against the cap. They'll enter the free-agency period needing to trip fat here and restructure deals there merely to have enough space to make a long-term deal feasible.

Jones recently spoke with reporters about signing Bryant and Murray:

"

It's going to be a challenge. Is it financially reasonable? No. Is it possible? Yes. 

But if you just looked at it from dollars and cents, it probably doesn't look reasonable. You have to figure out how you get there, but at the end of the day you realize it's going to be costly to have both of those players.

"

Of the two, Bryant is the likeliest to receive the franchise tag. He's the one the Cowboys most want to retain.

Murray was an integral piece in Dallas' playoff run, but he'd never played more than eight consecutive games before 2014 and plays a non-premium position. Dallas could select a running back in April's draft and probably coax 80 percent of Murray's per-carry production going forward.

Bryant's value is on another level. You could argue he's the NFL's best receiver with a straight face. Few are better at bringing down 50-50 balls, one of which would have taken the Cowboys to the NFC Championship Game if the NFL's catch rules weren't so weird.

If negotiations go slower than expected, look for Jones to use the franchise tag to bide himself time on a massive extension.

Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, New York Giants

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Pierre-Paul occupies a different stratum than the three aforementioned players. I have no clue how to evaluate him.

Take his 2011 and 2014 stats, and you have the profile of a pass-rushing monster around whom the Giants' defensive foundation can be built.

Take a look at his other three campaigns and, well, you're going to pay him HOW MUCH??

Throw it all together, and you have the perfect franchise tag candidate.

Disappointing in 2012 and altogether ineffective in 2013, Pierre-Paul came back in a huge way this season. He put together 77 total tackles and 12.5 sacks, numbers only eclipsed by his supposed superstar breakout during his second season.

Pro Football Focus ranked him the 16th-most productive pass-rusher and sixth-best run-stopper among 4-3 defensive ends in 2014.

In his three "down" seasons, though, Pierre-Paul has managed only 13 sacks total. There weren't 10 players at his position less effective as a pass-rusher in 2013.

Though some of that downturn was due to injuries, Pierre-Paul remains an enigmatic talent whose true ceiling remains unclear. This could have been a preview of his true prime, or it could be a one-year outlier as he hits a contract year.

Either way, there may be no player in football whose production screams "prove-it contract" louder. The Giants should and will franchise him with hopes of figuring out who he really is in 2015.

Follow Tyler Conway on Twitter @tylerconway22.