Playing Fact or Fiction with All of MLB's Hottest Buzz

While the weather outside is frightful for most of us, baseball season is quickly approaching, with only three weeks separating us from the start of spring training and the promise of warmer days ahead that comes with it.

This close to spring training, things typically slow down on the transaction front, with most rosters already set, non-roster invitations to camp delivered and the rumor mill recharging for the regular season.

But there's still some unfinished business to attend to, which we'll focus on in this week's edition of Fact or Fiction.

Jonathan Papelbon Will Be Traded Before Spring Training

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You'd think that after spending more than a year to find a team willing to take Jonathan Papelbon off its hands that Philadelphia would do everything in its power to facilitate a deal. But these are the Phillies that we're talking about, a team that makes things far more difficult than they need to be.

MLB.com's Todd Zolecki reported recently that both the Milwaukee Brewers and Toronto Blue Jays had interest in swinging a deal for the veteran closer. But rather than work with the clubs, the Phillies have seemingly drawn a line in the sand—one that they will not cross—according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Tom Haudricourt:

"

Vesting option is obstacle in #Brewers getting Papelbon. Philly would never let it vest, so why would they give $ for it to another team?

— Tom (@Haudricourt) January 28, 2015"

That $13 million vesting option kicks in if Papelbon finishes 48 games in 2015, a number that he'd easily reach with either the Brewers or Blue Jays, contenders that are currently without an established ninth-inning option on their respective rosters.

Phillies management might be delusional enough to fancy themselves contenders as well, but the reality is that this team is years away from contending again and simply has no real use for an expensive closer.

That's even more magnified when you take into account that the Phillies have Papelbon's replacement already on the roster in the form of 24-year-old Ken Giles, who parlayed a 44-game debut season into a respectable fourth-place finish in last year's National League Rookie of the Year voting.

It's easy to sit here and say that the Phillies should be jumping at the chance to pay $26 million (the total due to Papelbon over the next two years) so that he can close games for another team. Spending other people's money is always easier than spending your own, after all.

But Haudricourt goes on to say that, despite the vesting option issue, the Brewers would still like to bring Papelbon to Milwaukee. Which raises the question: Can the Phillies get out of their own way to make something happen?

Verdict: Fiction

The answer to that question, sadly, is no, they can't. Rather than swallow their pride and eat what remains on a bad contract, the Phillies will continue to pretend that they're operating under an austerity budget, further blocking the rebuilding process (and Giles' development) in the process.

Kevin Correia Will Sign with the Houston Astros

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Shortly after the Houston Astros were spurned by Ryan Vogelsong, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reported that they were still in the market for a back-end starter and had interest in veteran starter Kevin Correia.

Correia, 34, was terrible in 2014, pitching to a combined 5.44 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 150 innings of work with the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Dodgers. While his career numbers are mediocre at best (4.59 ERA, 1.42 WHIP), he's averaged 28 starts a season since 2009, wining at least 10 games four times.

He's not going to command a lucrative long-term deal, which makes him an ideal fit on a rebuilding Astros club that simply isn't far enough along in the process to invest heavily in an expensive starter, like the Chicago Cubs did this winter with Jon Lester.

So if Correia's a fit in Houston, and from what we can tell, other teams aren't foaming at the mouth to get him signed, it's a foregone conclusion that he'll wind up an Astro, right?

Verdict: Fiction

Could Correia wind up in Houston? Absolutely.

But he's not the only inexpensive back-of-the-rotation option available, with names like Kyle Kendrick, Paul Maholm and Chris Young still available.

Houston could also opt for a younger option with some upside in Brandon Beachy, though after a pair of Tommy John surgeries, the risk involved in signing him may outweigh the potential reward. The point is, the Astros have options—many of them more talented ones—than settling for Correia.

James Shields' Asking Price Has Dropped

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To say that things haven't played out the way James Shields expected them to this winter would be a gross understatement.

The 33-year-old starter has struggled to generate anything but speculation on the rumor mill as to where his next landing spot will be. Were it early December, that wouldn't be a problem. In late January, however, the lack of any substantial rumors is a major problem.

As Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal notes, there's more than one thing working against Shields finding a new home: "Executives cite not only Shields’ age as a negative, but also his backlog of innings, declining strikeout rate and spotty postseason performance."

Since his rookie season of 2006, only two pitchers, Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander, have logged more innings than Shields, while only three—King Fellix, Verlander and Dan Haren—have thrown more pitches.

That's a lot of wear and tear on an arm, and executives are right to be wary of how Shields will hold up moving forward.

But few pitchers have been as consistent as Shields has over his nine-year career. Among starters who have made at least 250 starts since 2006, Shields has delivered a quality start in 64.2 percent of his outings—the sixth-best mark in the group, ahead of the likes of Matt Cain, Jon Lester and Verlander.

After Shields was once considered to be a lock for a $100 million payday this winter, Rosenthal goes on to opine that at this point, he will have trouble landing a four-year deal that pays him in excess of $20 million per season, much less one that will take him through his age-38 season.

Could he take a one-year deal and try his luck again next winter? Sure, but with a free-agent class that—potentially—will be loaded with younger, more sought-after starters, Shields might run into the same issues again, only this time he'll be another year older.

His options at this point are limited.

Verdict: Fact

The simple truth is that whatever leverage Shields had in negotiations has disappeared. While he'd be a fit at the front end of more than a few rotations, teams know that Shields wants no part of next year's free-agent market.

He's going to sign eventually, because he's simply too talented for a team to not take a chance on. But it will be on the team's terms, not his—which could ultimately lead to a two-year deal (with an option).

Marco Scutaro's Career Is Over

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A week after being designated for assignment, veteran infielder Marco Scutaro has been released by the San Francisco Giants, according to the MLB.com transactions page (h/t Drew Silva of Hardball Talk).

Scutaro, 39, underwent spinal fusion surgery in December to try and remedy back ailments that limited him to only 13 plate appearances in 2014. While early reports from The Associated Press (via ESPN) indicated that the Giants planned on keeping Scutaro as he worked his way back, something clearly changed—either in the prognosis for his recovery or from the team's perspective—in recent days.

You can't blame the Giants here—it was going to be four to six months before they even knew whether Scutaro could even play baseball again and then however long it would take him to shake off considerable rust and work himself back into game shape.

Even if he was able to accomplish all of the above, it's fair to question just how well he'd be able to play the field. San Francisco already has a pair of younger infielders on the roster in Ehire Adrianza and Joaquin Arias, and without the benefit of a designated hitter spot to stash Scutaro in, there may not have been a roster spot waiting for him when he was ready to return.

Verdict: Fact

While Scutaro may prefer to go out on his own terms, risking future medical and quality-of-life issues to get back on the field simply isn't worth it.

Realistically, there's not a team out there that's going to take a chance on a nearly 40-year-old infielder with a surgically repaired back.

Making The Show is a major accomplishment in itself; carving out a respectable 13-year playing career that includes an All-Star berth in 2013 and a postseason MVP award (his performance for the Giants in the 2012 National League Championship Series will go down as one of the best the game has ever seen) is remarkable.

Scutaro can walk away from the game with his head held high—but more important is the fact that he can walk away from the game at all.

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs.

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