Andy Murray's Experience Will See Him Through to the Australian Open Final
Andy Murray will face a tough match when he takes on Tomas Berdych in the Australian Open semi-final, but his superior experience of the latter stages of Grand Slams will give him the edge in what's sure to be a tightly fought contest.
There isn't too much that separates the sixth seed and the seventh in terms of their performance in competition so far.
According to AusOpen.com, Murray has played one set more than his opponent and made slightly more unforced errors, 133 to Berdych's 125. The Scot has got 63 percent of his first serves in and has won 79 percent of points of those points, while the Czech has got 59 percent of his first serves in but won 84 percent of them.
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Both players have faced a similar challenge in getting to the semi-finals, easing through the early stages before a bigger test of nerve.
In Murray's case, that came primarily from Grigor Dimitrov in Round 4, though credit should be given to Nick Kyrgios for his performance on Tuesday. For Berdych, Rafael Nadal in the quarter-final—albeit Nadal's performances had been inconsistent as he made his return from illness and injury.
What does separate the players is their involvement in Grand Slam semi-finals and beyond.
Berdych has made four Slam semi-finals in his career, winning just one, and ultimately lost to Nadal in the Wimbledon final in 2010.
By contrast Murray—currently ranked sixth after a disappointing year but long-regarded as one of the "Big Four"— has made 14 semis, winning half and eventually winning two Slam titles.
In terms of ability, achievement and experience, Murray is on another level to Berdych.
Of course, this doesn't guarantee a victory and Berdych does have a superior head-to-head record, having won six of their 10 clashes.
However, Murray is currently looking to have put his difficult spell behind him. The 27-year-old is playing his best tennis in many months and has started showing the aggressive and creative play that brought him Grand Slam success before.
Murray hit 48 winners against Kyrgios, including two lobs in the second-set tiebreaker, the second of which is shown below. As it demonstrates, Murray is brimming with confidence:
As noted by Sky Sports' Barry Cowan, Berdych's second serve and overall play has a tendency to become predictable, which has often led to his downfall against the top players.
The 29-year-old has played well throughout the tournament, but if he should revert to type, then Murray can put him on the back foot.
Indeed, Berdych has only won 53 percent of his second service points, so Murray will certainly look to exploit this with his excellent returns.
Murray's former coach, Dani Vallverdu, is now in Berdych's camp. The Scot has addressed the idea that this will give Berdych an advantage.
Per BBC Sport, he said: "Dani knows my game inside out. I would expect he would come up with a great game plan... I think it's a huge advantage. With the way Tomas has been playing, I would expect that he would go into the match probably as the slight favourite."
However, in his post-match press conference, Murray had downplayed Vallverdu's influence: "I also know what Dani thinks of Berdych's game because he's told me, so it works both ways."
In truth, declaring Berdych as the favourite is probably a deflecting tactic to ease the pressure on himself. Or perhaps, it even serves to remind him not to be complacent.
Either way, Murray has the experience and wherewithal to triumph on Thursday.
Make no mistake, it will be a tough game.
Berdych is playing well, and his win over Nadal—his first in 18 attempts—will give him something to draw on, as will his previous victories over Murray.
Ultimately, though, Murray has been there and done it all before. Particularly in Melbourne, where he has reached the final three times.
It'll be a hard-fought contest, but Murray will do it again.
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