Australian Open 2015 Women's Semis: Makarova vs Sharapova Preview and Prediction
Ekaterina Makarova and Maria Sharapova are two blonde Russian tennis players in their late 20s. That's about where the similarities end.
When the two clash in the semifinals of the 2015 Australian Open, it will be the assertive and aggressive Sharapova against the meek and mild Makarova.
Sharapova, winner of five Grand Slams and 34 career singles titles, was born in Russia, but has resided in Florida most of her life. Makarova still lives in Moscow, the city where she was born.
When a reporter asked Makarova about great Russian women tennis players, Makarova recalled Dinara Safina, Anastasia Myskina, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Elena Dementieva. When asked whether she considers Sharapova a part of the Russian greats, Makarova replied: "Well, that's tough question. I just want to leave it."
Sharapova, the Americanized Russian, graces the cover of magazines and pushes her own candy line. Makarova, who is in the Top 10, is sometimes confused with New Zealand tennis player Marina Erakovic.
Although born just a year apart, Sharapova has been on the WTA Tour three years longer than Makarova.
Makarova is a lefty, Sharapova a righty. One is seeking her first trip to a Grand Slam final. The other is seeking her sixth Slam title.
Who Has the Historic Edge?
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Sharapova holds a 5-0 head-to-head edge over Makarova. Their last meeting was in the quarterfinals of the 2013 Australian Open. Sharapova defeated Makarova 6-2, 6-2.
More important than head-to-head, is the huge advantage Sharapova has over Makarova in terms of Grand Slam experience. Makarova is playing in her first Aussie Open semifinal. She's never reached a Slam final. She seemed overwhelmed in her semifinal match against Serena Williams at he 2014 U.S.Open.
How Makarova Looked at the Australian Open so Far
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Makarova's 6-4, 6-0 quarterfinals win over Simona Halep was about as uneventful as a pre-match warmup. Halep, No. 3, played uninspired tennis. The match was the biggest snoozefest.
Makarova hit twice as many unforced errors (20) as winners (10). Yet she managed to bagel Halep in the second set.
While Makarova didn’t overwhelm Halep with winners, she avoided major mistakes of her own. She had no aces, but no double faults either. She landed 75 percent of her first serves. She converted on 83 percent of her break-point chances.
She benefited from the rash of early upsets in the bottom half of the draw. Until she reached the quarterfinals, Makarova hadn't faced anyone ranked above No. 22. That makes her easy win over Halep even more shocking.
How Sharapova Has Looked at the Australian Open so Far
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Sharapova cruised by Eugenie Bochard, 6-3, 6-2, in the quarterfinal showdown that wasn't.
Hyped as an epic match that might feature a changing of the guard, Sharapova's win over Bouchard revealed just how much work the Canadian has to do before she can knock off one of the titans of tennis. Hitting 19 winners to just 18 unforced errors, Sharapova made Bouchard's game look ordinary.
Oddly, Sharapova's biggest test came in the second round, to a previously unknown Russian, Alexandra Panova, who squandered two match points in a three-set loss to Sharapova.
That match apparently put Sharapova on red alert. She's been cruising since.
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Biggest X-Factors in the Semifinal
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Serves and experience will be the biggest X-factors in this match. If Sharapova serves well, Makarova hardly stands a chance. With such a huge edge in experience and head-to-head, it's unlikely that Sharapova will feel the moment is too big for her.
A flurry of double faults—they come in clusters–may throw Sharapova off. Also, Aussie fans love rooting for the underdog. If Makarova can gain any momentum they will get solidly behind her.
Makarova Will Win If...
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Makarova would have to play fearless tennis to take down a Grand Slam champion in a Slam. She did it against Serena Williams in the 2012 Australian Open. However, that was in an earlier round.
Fearlessness comes easier to the young who know no better. Makarova is hardly young. She has to keep the nerves from creeping in, as they did in her semifinal match against Williams in the 2014 U.S. Open.
Consistency is the hallmark of Makarova's game. She essentially waits for her opponent to blink. Her best weapon is her lefty serve. However, she rarely brings out the hammer like lefty Petra Kvitova. But she has to keep her first-serve percentage high to keep Sharapova from bouncing on weak second serves.
Makarova has to play fearless and near flawless tennis, and still she may need a little help from Sharapova.
Sharapova Will Win If...
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There's a reason Makarova has never beaten Sharapova. It's just a bad matchup for her. Nothing she does rattles Sharapova. If Sharapova keeps her unforced errors and double faults under control, she should dismiss Makarova without breaking a sweat.
Prediction
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Besides wanting to add another Slam to her resume, Sharapova has her eyes set on regaining the No. 1 ranking. Even if Serena Williams awaits her, Sharapova will not worry about that during her match with Makarova. She will focus on the task at hand. Barring some colossal mental collapse, Sharapova will cruise to a 6-3, 6-1 victory.
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