Is Rafael Nadal Headed for an Early Australian Open Exit After 2nd-Round Scare?

Rafael Nadal’s second-round close call may be a symptom of an underlying prognosis: The 14-time Grand Slam champion is headed for an early exit at the 2015 Australian Open.

Nadal defeated Tim Smyczek 6-2, 3-6, 6-7(2), 6-3, 7-5. The too-close encounter with the American qualifier showcased Nadal’s resilience and resolve. However, it also revealed the Spaniard's vulnerability.  

Although no fan of the hard courts, Nadal has enjoyed success at the Australian Open. Yet he's found as much misfortune in Melbourne as he has triumph at Roland Garros.

Nadal defeated Roger Federer in the finals to win the 2009 Australian Open. The win moved Federer to tears. It signaled a changing of the guard and a possible run on Slams for Nadal. However, most of Nadal's Slams (nine) have come at the French Open. He picked up two at Wimbledon and two at the U.S. Open. That win over Federer remains his sole Australian Open title. 

His history of hiccups in this particular Slam, his recent bout with injuries and obvious discomfort on court might mean an abbreviated stay in Melbourne.  

Throughout the match, Nadal seemed bothered by all sorts of aches and illness. Visibly shaken, Nadal struggled against Smyczek, a guy who, going into the match, had played in just 13 Grand Slam events, fewer than Nadal Slam titles.

Writer Ed McGrogan chronicled Nadal’s woes in Melbourne for Tennis.com. McGrogan wrote that Nadal retired in the quarterfinals in 2010, and "at the same stage in 2011, with an opportunity to hold all four Slams at once, he was not himself against David Ferrer. In two of the last three years, Nadal has reached the Aussie Open final, but on both occasions lost in painful fashion (nearly six hours to Novak Djokovic in 2012, and in four compromised sets to Stan Wawrinka in 2014). He was unable to play the tournament at all in 2013."

Nadal had won 17 five-set matches and Smyczek had only played in four. So how is it that such an overwhelming underdog found himself so close beating the No. 3 player?

He needed some help from an ailing Nadal. After his match, Nadal told reporters how sick he felt. 

"I suffered too much on court for three hours and a half. I was suffering a lot. Too much. You know, was not funny today the way that the match was. Obviously is a very positive thing that finally have the chance to win, but, yeah, I hope to recover myself."

Like all champions, Nadal is susceptible to an early upset. Narrow escapes and comebacks, however, are what champions build their reputation on. Even though Nadal found the strength to soldier through that match, the tread on those weary knees is wearing thin. 

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Nadal is the Dwyane Wade of tennis. Gifted, talented and tough, the two throw their bodies around as if every game or match is the last. That type of dogged determination delights fans and registers wins.

It also breaks down the body. The yearly grind seems to have taken its toll on Nadal more than any other top player. In his post-match press conference, Nadal acknowledged that his physical struggles in the match against Smyczek felt like more than routine fatigue. 

"

I am sweating a lot always when it's humid. But, I don't know, long time without competition, with tough conditions, but at the end happened something more. Is obvious, no? I practiced a lot. Should not be that tired after 40 minutes. That's obvious, no? Something happened, and I feel lucky to have the chance to finish the match, and then to find a way to win.

"

An early struggle by no means guarantees an early exit. But something felt different about this five-setter. Nadal looked tour-tired just weeks into the new season. 

Nadal admitted that he considered retiring in the match. “I was close to stopping…I felt that I was very dizzy. I felt that I can lose little bit the—I don't know how to say—can fall down.”

Smyczek, acknowledging the talent gap, told reporters that Nadal beat him with his C or D game. That might be true. But Smyczek is a C- or D-league player. A C-plus player may have finished Nadal off.

Nadal next faces No. 106 Dudi Sela, another C-leaguer. If Nadal gets past Sela, the winner of the Kevin Anderson-Richard Gasquet match awaits. Members of the B-team, Anderson or Gasquet will have no problem taking advantage of a sick Nadal. 

As the tournament moves on, Nadal will run into more top-tier players, the A-listers. If he falters, those players won’t lift the boot off his neck. He needs to find a quick cure for whatever ails him. Otherwise, he'll get plenty of extra time to recuperate.