Australian Open 2015 Men's Semifinals: Berdych vs. Murray Preview and Prediction
Who saw this matchup coming?
Tomas Berdych, the No. 7 seed, not only beat Rafael Nadal but destroyed him. Who saw Berdych winning 6-2, 6-0, 7-6(5) against a player who had beaten him 18 times in a row? Czech mate.
“I might be thinking about it and enjoying the time probably till tomorrow morning,” Berdych said on AusOpen.com. “When I wake up, I need to get myself ready for another one. There is a still long way to go in this tournament, and I need to be ready for it.”
As for No. 6 seed Andy Murray, the Scot rose to the occasion, eliminating any hopes that Australia’s own Nick Kyrgios would reach the semifinals.
The two big seeds—Nadal and Federer—are out of the bottom half of the draw. What we’re left with are a Czech and a Scot who are playing some of the sharpest tennis in the world.
Read on to see how these two match up in the first semifinal of the Australian Open.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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Berdych has the 6-4 edge over Murray, with the last meeting taking place in 2013. In that match, at the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 in Cincinnati, Berdych won in straight sets.
They have played against each other in Grand Slams on two occasions. The first was in 2012 in the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open, which Murray won in four sets.
The first time they met in a major tournament was the 2010 French Open in the round of 16. Berdych won in straight sets.
Berdych is 6’5”, and Murray is 6’3”. Both have big bodies and can hit it hard and paint the lines. This matchup may not be concert-headliner big, but they will put on a great show.
Berdych at the Australian Open
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From 2004 to 2010, Berdych spent most of his time toiling in the lower rounds of this tournament.
In his first three tries, he made it to the second round twice and lost in the first round once.
Then there was a stretch from 2007 to 2009 where he went to three straight fourth-round matches before losing. The following year he lost in the second. It looked like even at the young age 23 that maybe his abilities had taken him as far as he would go in Grand Slams.
He wouldn’t be alone. Many fizzle out. Only the greats remain. There's a reason Mt. Olympus is populated by the who's who of Grecian deities.
Starting in 2011, he rebounded, making three straight trips to the quarterfinals and losing in last year’s semifinal. Now he’s in the semis for the second year running.
“The plan that we put together was the right one,” Berdych said on AusOpen.com. “Everything was working. I was able to execute it really well. But until the last point you can't think about anything else. You have to really keep going till the last one. When it's done, it's done.”
Murray at the Australian Open
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For Murray, just call the Australian Open Wimbledon South.
He has had great success at the Australian Open, though he hasn’t won the tournament yet. If you scratch out 2006 and 2008—years when he lost in the first round—his Australian resume is superb.
Two fourth-round exits, three runner-ups, one semifinal trip and one quarterfinal trip. Murray dusted Kyrgios to reach his fifth semifinal in Melbourne. He said in the Daily Mail:
"It was a tricky match and very windy, I tried to start as quickly as possible because I know how dangerous Nick can be and what he is capable of. He is a huge hitter and so I tried to keep it out of his strike zone. It's understandable that he had great support, to play in front of a packed crowd like this was a privilege.
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Winning this tournament will give Murray his third Grand Slam and leave him just a French Open shy of all four.
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The Biggest X-Factors
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For Berdych…
It may be as simple as belief. He’s been playing a long time and has reached just one Grand Slam final, that being the 2010 Wimbledon final.
“I’m ready,” Berdych said on AusOpen.com. “I’m feeling strong and prepared, and I want to go all the way.”
Berdych has been masterful at winning points on service. While not dropping a single set, he has won over 60 service points in each of his matches, except for one.
For Murray…
He’s on the precipice of another run through the final. He can’t think beyond the confident Berdych. He can’t look beyond Berdych and see potential opponents in Novak Djokovic, Stan Wawrinka or Kei Nishikori.
On the court, Murray has been landing a high percentage of his first serves; he landed a tournament-high 69 percent in the quarterfinal against Kyrgios.
Murray has hit relatively few unforced errors, so if his game remains this clean, he’ll be tough to beat.
Berdych Will Win If...
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Berdych must stay aggressive.
He has drilled 221 winners to just 125 unforced errors through five matches.
More impressive is that he hit all those winners in the minimum of 15 sets, averaging 44.2 winners per match and 14.7 per set.
His ability to harness that aggression has been—and will be—key for him. ESPN.com’s Peter Bodo wrote, “The same Berdych who has a reputation as one of the game's leading head cases and a dangerous ball-striker with a turbo-charged, 16-cylinder engine but a gearbox stuck in third.”
His new coach, Daniel Vallverdu, was also Murray’s hitting partner for some time, so nobody knows what to expect in the semifinal better than Berdych.
Murray Will Win If...
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Murray has to hit all the key marks.
Those marks are winning 74 percent of points on first serve, 28 percent of first-serve return points and 52 percent of medium rallies.
Through all his matches, he has surpassed those barriers and has come away a winner.
Murray is healthy now. Last year he came into this event just a few months after back surgery. His back is healed up, and he’s hungry to break through for another crack at this tournament.
Being a three-time runner-up will do that. After the match against Kyrgios, ESPN.com's Greg Garber wrote, “Murray is superbly fit after some gruesome training days in Miami back in December and also a talented tactician, whose many gifts perfectly counteract Kyrgios'.”
Those same strengths he used to beat Kyrgios will be just as valuable against a sometimes volatile Berdych.
Prediction
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Murray in four.
He is a three-time finalist who is playing some of the best tennis of his career. He’s healthy for the first time in over a year and has been here before.
As for Berdych, he’s made a nice run the past two years to reach the semifinals. Finally toppling Nadal after losing to the Spaniard 18 straight matches was a victory unto itself. Doing it in straight sets was all the more impressive.
There could be a subtle letdown after Berdych’s win over Nadal, and Murray has been here enough and is experienced enough to put an end to Berdych’s run and reach a fourth Australian Open final.
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