Australian Open 2015 Women's Semifinal: Keys vs. Williams Preview and Prediction
This could be a watershed moment in American women’s tennis, or maybe the watershed moment already occurred.
Serena Williams, to no one’s surprise, reached the 2015 Australian Open semifinal. Across the net today at 11:30 p.m. EST will be Madison Keys, the 19-year-old American who ousted Venus Williams in three sets to reach her first Grand Slam semi.
With the Williams sisters in their 30s and carrying the flame—being the flame—of the American torch, there have been micro-bursts of successors. Now, none seem brighter than Keys.
“It's also great for me and Venus because we know that, finally, there are other Americans that are constantly playing well and playing better, showing that they want to be the world's greatest,” Williams said on espnW.
For now, Williams isn’t ready to abdicate the throne despite Keys’ attempt at a coup d’etat.
Read on to get a handle on this unexpected red, white and blue semifinal.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
1 of 7
No one has the historical edge. These two have never played each other professionally.
“It's good to see another American, and another African-American, in the semifinals playing so well,'' Williams said on espnW. "Regardless of who wins, there is going to be an American in the finals, so that is great.”
Who has the mental edge? That unequivocally goes to Williams, the woman with 18 Grand Slams going against the upstart who has now reached her first Grand Slam semifinal.
Five years ago, Keys did defeat Williams in a one-set exhibition, 5-1, World Team Tennis event. You can imagine how serious a player like Williams would take that match. You can also imagine how seriously Keys, then aged 14, took it.
Keys at the Australian Open
2 of 7
Keys is playing in just her fourth Australian Open.
Since 2012, she has lost in the first round, third round and second round. Now she’s in the semifinal. Keys had never advanced farther than the third round in any Grand Slam.
As big as the win against Venus was in the quarterfinals, it was taking down No. 4 seed Petra Kvitova in straight sets in the third round that sticks out.
SI.com’s Courtney Nguyen wrote of the match, "Kvitova's vaunted serve was missing from the match and she struggled to keep her serving percentage above 50 percent. As Keys smacked return winner after return winner off her second serve, Kvitova crumbled under the pressure."
And Keys has kept rolling, beating fellow Americans Madison Brengle and Venus.
Now just one more American opponent remains for Keys.
Williams at the Australian Open
3 of 7
Williams has nine combined titles in the Australian Open, five singles and four doubles.
All of her success at Melbourne came between 2003 and 2010, a seven-year run that saw her win all five of her singles titles. Since 2010, she’s run aground on the Great Barrier Reef.
She didn’t play in 2011, lost in the fourth round in 2012 and 2014 and reached the quarterfinals in 2013.
This tournament has been rocky for Williams. In Rounds 3 and 4, she dropped the first set to Elina Svitolina and Garbine Muguruza. After dropping those first sets, she then lost a combined seven games in the ensuing four sets.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
The Biggest X-Factors
4 of 7
The biggest X-factor is health; one could be limping while the other could be a human Petri dish of infection.
Keys came up a tad lame in her win over Venus and needed a medical timeout to address her left abductor.
"It was kind of an overwhelming moment. It was kind of scary,'' Keys said on espnW. "But luckily, I was able to catch it before I did any real damage to it. Luckily, the painkillers and adrenaline in the end kind of helped me get through it.''
It was an injury that forced her out of the third round in the last year's Wimbledon.
As for Williams, her weakness is microbiological. A virus that has infected her attacks her from within.
"It's just getting worse and worse,'' Serena said on espnW. "But hopefully it will start getting better.''
With such a quick turnaround from the quarterfinal matches to the semifinals, the player who can best bury these maladies will have the slight edge.
Keys Will Win If...
5 of 7
She doesn’t get star-struck.
Seeing Venus play inspired Keys to pick up a racket. Beating one Williams is one thing. Beating both in the same tournament? That’s something entirely different.
Kim Clijsters, Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario, Steffi Graf, Marina Hingis, Justine Henin and Jelena Jankovic and Lindsay Davenport are the only players to beat both sisters in the same tournament.
Keys’ key is the last on that list: Davenport. Davenport, a three-time Grand Slam winner and former world No. 1, is Keys’ coach.
Serena said in The Guardian, "Lindsay used to just hit a clean ball. She was so fun to watch play. I loved watching her play. Of course, didn’t love watching her hit those clean balls against you. Yeah, definitely some similarities. Madison hits a clean ball, goes for it."
Williams Will Win If...
6 of 7
She puts an end to rallies before they start.
According to AusOpen.com's Chris O'Shannessy, Williams' ability to smother out rallies and not allow them to develop was her biggest strength in her 6-2, 6-2 win over Dominika Cubulkova in the semifinals.
It's something O'Shannessy calls "first-strike" tennis. He wrote:
"The average rally length for the entire 96-point match was only 3.2 shots. That’s not even two shots for each player! That’s a serve, a return, a run-around forehand and bring me my towel please. The average shots per game in the opening set totaled 14.1. That’s not per point – it’s per game!
"
Williams already has a mental edge in this game over the teenager. All Williams needs to do is squash these points with emphatic punctuation early and often, thus keeping Keys from finding any sort of rhythm.
Prediction
7 of 7
Keys said something pretty telling after her win against Venus in the quarterfinals.
“I'm very happy that I'm into the semifinals," Keys said in a post-match interview. "And it makes it sweeter that it was against Venus. It's amazing. I was very nervous coming out. I enjoyed the moment and get to enjoy another moment next round."
The fact that she was nervous (which is completely natural) is telling. Those nerves will only be heightened because of her new opponent and the stakes of the match: a berth in the final.
Williams halts Keys’ epic run through this tournament.
Williams will likely face No. 2 seed and No. 2 in the world rankings Maria Sharapova in what will be an incredible match.
Sharapova wants the world No. 1 ranking, and Williams wants to pass Chrissie Evert and Martina Navratilova with Grand Slam No. 19.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
