Highlighting MLB's Most Deadly Lineups 1 Month from Spring Training
In collecting this slideshow, I found that roster construction gave half of the teams eligible a distinct advantage over the other half.
Take David Ortiz away from the Boston Red Sox. Take Miguel Cabrera/Victor Martinez away from the Tigers. Or how about the opposite perspective: What if the Nationals could play Ryan Zimmerman at DH?
In order to compensate for this, I've picked the five best lineups from each league to nullify the impact of the DH. When compared in a vacuum, they won't necessarily match up, but considering the flawed setup that exists in baseball today, I'm leveling the playing field.
The main criteria I used are runs scored (hard to fathom, I know), injury risk and park factors—to see the type of advantage or disadvantage a team gets from playing half of their games at home. A team may have inflated numbers at home (hello, Coors Field), but on the road everything averages out over 81 games, so a lineup's true ability will show through.
The results even surprised me by the time I was finished, but here are my top 10 lineups, with projections courtesy of RotoChamp.com.
Just Missed the Cut
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National League
San Diego Padres
I really, really like what the Padres did this offseason, completely revitalizing their lineup with high-quality bats. Matt Kemp and Justin Upton can hit anywhere, even in the dreaded Petco Park, and Wil Myers should rebound following a very disappointing sophomore campaign. I'm not a huge Will Middlebrooks fan, but the underrated Derek Norris addition should pay big dividends, especially against lefties.
Colorado Rockies
Don't get me wrong, they will be among the highest scoring teams at home. The problem is, their opponents get to hit in Coors Field as well. This is a lineup that doesn't hit on the road, 29th in batting average and dead last in runs scored. Their best players, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, never stay healthy, so if they're out, is the best hitter Corey Dickerson? Overrated lineup.
American League
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles finished 2014 with the fourth-best OPS and the fourth-most runs scored on the road last season. However, they lost two of their best hitters, including home run champion Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis, to free agency. Yes, they'll get Matt Wieters back and hopefully Manny Machado can stay healthy, but I don't see them matching the departed production. They'll still be good, just not top five in the AL.
New York Mets
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Citi Field was the third-worst scoring environment in baseball last season.
I'm a diehard New York Mets fan, and this ranking totally shocked me, too, so hang in there. The Mets finished with the second-most runs scored on the road among all NL teams last season. Second most!
They did this despite David Wright having his worst season ever, finishing with eight home runs. Prized offseason acquisition Curtis Granderson struggled mightily, recording the worst batting average (.227) and slugging percentage (.388) of his three-time, All-Star career.
Maybe Citi Field really was the problem? Regardless, here's how the Amazin's did it.
Breakout Young Players
The man pictured above, Lucas Duda, had a career season, doubling his career high with 30 home runs and 92 RBI. Prized prospect Travis d'Arnaud was demoted after an atrocious first half, but following his recall hit .265 with a .474 slugging percentage after the All-Star break. Juan Lagares proved to be more than a world-class center fielder, boosting his 2013 OPS by 70 points and going over the .700 mark in just his second season.
The Mets are known for their stable of young arms, and for good reason, but maybe their young bats deserve more recognition than they've been getting.
Stable, Bounce-Back Veterans
As I mentioned above, both Wright and Granderson were terrible in 2014 and should bounce back in 2015. General manager Sandy Alderson added a quality bat in Michael Cuddyer. While he won't play 162 games due to an injury-prone body, even if he plays just 100 he should provide a big boost over the Bobby Abreu/Eric Campbell/Eric Young Jr. combination that the Mets trotted out for a large portion of last season.
Projected Lineup
| BA | HR | OPS | ||
| Juan Lagares | OF | .249 | 8 | .643 |
| Daniel Murphy | 2B | .277 | 9 | .712 |
| David Wright | 3B | .275 | 16 | .780 |
| Lucas Duda | 1B | .234 | 24 | .751 |
| Michael Cuddyer | OF | .255 | 19 | .734 |
| Curtis Granderson | OF | .222 | 19 | .713 |
| Travis d'Arnaud | C | .251 | 17 | .741 |
| Wilmer Flores | SS | .248 | 15 | .685 |
| Pitcher |
Los Angeles Angels
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Angel Stadium of Anaheim was the fifth-worst scoring environment in baseball last season.
Is Mike Trout good enough to single-handedly carry an offense?
Yup.
Despite the continued decline of Albert Pujols (he's still really good) and the disappearance of Josh Hamilton (he's still really bad), the Los Angeles Angels scored the most runs on the road last season, with the second-highest OPS.
Big Three
No, this is not quite LeBron James and his crew in Cleveland/Miami, but with Trout, Pujols and Hamilton, the Angels had the making of something special.
Despite being 23 years old, Trout has been the best player in baseball for the past three years now, and somehow may continue to get better if he trims his strikeout rate (league-high 187 strikeouts last season). Pujols rebounded last season to hit 28 home runs and drive in 105, so despite not being "The Machine" that he was in St. Louis, he's still an All-Star-caliber player.
The problem lies with the disappearance of Hamilton. In Texas he averaged 28 homers, 108 RBI and a .305 batting average. With the Angels, he's averaged 16 homers, 62 RBI and a .255 batting average. He'll play the majority of this season as a 34-year-old, so the icing isn't quite on the cake just yet, and I think he has one big season left in him.
Depth
Kole Calhoun had a breakout season, scoring 90 runs with 17 homers and a .450 slugging percentage. It was an odd breakout for the 27-year-old, but all he did as a minor leaguer was hit, and his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was in-line with his career stats, so there's little reason to not believe he cannot repeat his 2014.
Former first-round pick C.J. Cron and former World Series hero David Freese aren't superstars, but they provide quality depth outside of the aforementioned Big Three, with 15-20 home run potential. Erick Aybar is a career .277 hitter that proved he could be a valuable run producer with a career-high 68 RBI last season.
The reason for the drop on the list is the loss of Howie Kendrick to the Dodgers. He was a consistent run producer in the middle of the Angels' lineup and was replaced with a below-average regular in Josh Rutledge. They needed pitching, but L.A. will feel Kendrick's absence.
Projected Lineup
| BA | HR | OPS | ||
| Kole Calhoun | OF | .270 | 18 | .763 |
| Mike Trout | OF | .303 | 32 | .949 |
| Albert Pujols | 1B | .271 | 25 | .795 |
| Josh Hamilton | OF | .262 | 17 | .769 |
| David Freese | 3B | .265 | 11 | .724 |
| C.J. Cron | DH | .253 | 11 | .709 |
| Erick Aybar | SS | .277 | 7 | .691 |
| Josh Rutledge | 2B | .264 | 7 | .700 |
| Chris Iannetta | C | .238 | 9 | .741 |
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Cincinnati Reds
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Great American Ball Park was the 18th-best scoring environment in baseball last season.
The Cincinnati Reds' lineup was awful last season. They finished 26th among all teams in runs scored on the road last season and 28th in team OPS.
Why'd they make the list? I'm giving them a mulligan.
Injured Stars of 2014 Return to Form
Perennial MVP candidate Joey Votto was limited to 62 games in 2014, but I believe he'll be back to normal. Their other potential MVP candidate, Jay Bruce, had the worst professional season of his seven-year career. I believe he'll also return to his 30 home run standard, as he'll turn 28 years old this April with prime years ahead of him.
Brandon Phillips has been in a steady decline for the last few seasons, but fell off a cliff last season. He won't return to All-Star level, but he's only 33 years old, so he can bounce back to an above-average second baseman.
Young Players Follow Up Breakout Seasons, Byrdman to the Rescue
Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco proved last year that they're more than capable of picking up the slack. Both made their first All-Star teams, hitting career highs in home runs (54 combined) and RBI (160 combined), and still may have room to grow and develop.
Initially, Billy Hamilton lived up to the hype in his rookie season and was one of the best baserunners in baseball. However, he was a totally different player in the second half, with his batting average dropping to the Mendoza line. If the Reds are going to keep their spot on this list, he'll need to return to his first-half form.
In addition, the Reds acquired Marlon Byrd from the Phillies this offseason. At 37 years old, I don't quite understand how he continues to hit, but he's been tremendous the last two seasons. Inserting his at-bats in place of the sinkhole that was Ryan Ludwick will only bring good things to Cincinnati.
Projected Lineup
| BA | HR | OPS | ||
| Billy Hamilton | OF | .253 | 6 | .639 |
| Todd Frazier | 3B | .262 | 26 | .776 |
| Joey Votto | 1B | .288 | 15 | .887 |
| Devin Mesoraco | C | .259 | 21 | .806 |
| Jay Bruce | OF | .234 | 23 | .717 |
| Brandon Phillips | 2B | .266 | 11 | .694 |
| Marlon Byrd | OF | .271 | 22 | .773 |
| Zack Cozart | SS | .234 | 8 | .606 |
| Pitcher |
Toronto Blue Jays
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The Rogers Centre was the ninth-best scoring environment in baseball last season.
Best 1-5 in MLB
The Toronto Blue Jays' lineup, one through five, is the scariest in baseball. When healthy, Jose Reyes is a top-five shortstop and Russell Martin is one of the premier hitting (and fielding) catchers in the game. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion form one of the most lethal power tandems in all of baseball. Then throw in the acquisition of Josh Donaldson, and who do you pitch to?
Upside
I loved the acquisition of Michael Saunders. With an OPS .74 points higher on the road, he'll make a great half of a platoon, if not more. The same goes for Justin Smoak, who hit 20 home runs as recently as 2013 but was a bit unlucky last season with a BABIP .17 points below his career average. Give him the DH role, let him get comfortable, and he should get back to the 20 home run range.
Lack of Depth, Injury Concern, Inflated Numbers from Home Park
The reason the Blue Jays aren't higher is the lack of depth and the high amount of injury risk. Maicer Izturis is an average second baseman at best. Dalton Pompey is a nice prospect, but he started last season in High-A and has a grand total of 17 MLB games under his belt. Is he ready to take on a full-time role? Reyes has missed an average of 31 games over the past five seasons, Bautista's missed an average of 27 and Encarnacion missed 34 last year. They're a few injuries away from a below-average lineup.
In addition, the Blue Jays finished 10th among all AL clubs in runs scored on the road last season. The additions of Martin and Donaldson will help boost that number, but not enough to rank them higher on this list.
Projected Lineup
| BA | HR | OPS | ||
| Jose Reyes | SS | .290 | 10 | .743 |
| Russell Martin | C | .259 | 13 | .773 |
| Jose Bautista | OF | .275 | 31 | .904 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 1B | .269 | 35 | .896 |
| Josh Donaldson | 3B | .267 | 25 | .810 |
| Justin Smoak | DH | .220 | 11 | .677 |
| Michael Saunders | OF | .251 | 10 | .735 |
| Maicer Izturis | 2B | .252 | 4 | .641 |
| Dalton Pompey | OF | .243 | 8 | .657 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
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PNC Park was the 17th-best scoring environment in baseball last season.
Losing All-Star catcher Russell Martin and his .402 on-base percentage will hurt the Pittsburgh Pirates' lineup, but it won't be crippling. When you have perennial MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen in the middle, things could be a lot worse.
After finishing fourth among NL teams in runs scored on the road in 2014 and fifth overall in road OPS, they may be able to climb higher on those lists in 2015.
2014 Breakouts, 2015 Breakout Candidates
I've never seen a more shocking, out-of-nowhere top-10 MVP finalist than Josh Harrison. When he made the All-Star team, I remember thinking what a joke it was, and he'd return to his journeyman, minor league status by the end of the season.
Boy, was I wrong.
Not only did he come four points shy of winning the batting title, but he also slugged .490, tied for 18th in all of baseball. His BABIP was inflated, so 2014 was likely his only chance at a batting title, but he still projects to be a versatile, above-average hitter no matter where he lines up on the field.
Starling Marte was a shell of himself in the first half of last season, but broke out in the second half, hitting .348 with a .567 slugging percentage. He'll be 26 years old for the 2015 season, so his best years are yet to come.
Neil Walker also had a career year last season. Outside of 2011, he's never been able to stay healthy for a full season, so that's a concern, but after posting career highs with 23 home runs and a .467 slugging percentage, the 29-year-old still has some peak years ahead of him. With an increasing ISO (isolated power) and a K% rate that was a career-low 15.4 percent last season, he should be able to repeat his numbers.
My favorite part of this lineup is top prospect Gregory Polanco. After obliterating Triple-A last season, he struggled in his rookie season, hitting .235 with a paltry .343 slugging percentage in 89 games. After getting an offseason to clear his mind, Polanco is my favorite to win Rookie of the Year in the NL, hitting around .280 with 15-20 home runs and 20 steals.
Projected Lineup
| BA | HR | OPS | ||
| Josh Harrison | 3B | .303 | 13 | .794 |
| Gregory Polanco | OF | .250 | 7 | .650 |
| Andrew McCutchen | OF | .316 | 24 | .927 |
| Neil Walker | 2B | .268 | 20 | .787 |
| Starling Marte | OF | .285 | 12 | .780 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 1B | .234 | 25 | .743 |
| Jordy Mercer | SS | .262 | 10 | .709 |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | .251 | 4 | .669 |
| Pitcher |
Detroit Tigers
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Comerica Park was the 14th-best scoring environment in baseball last season.
These next five teams were the clear upper echelon for me, starting with two-time MVP Miguel Cabrera and the Detroit Tigers. After finishing last season with the third-best OPS and the second-most runs scored on the road, it was hard not to place them even higher.
Deadly 3-4-5
What ultimately kept the Tigers from a top-three spot was Miguel Cabrera's declining health. The Tigers cleared Cabrera to wear normal shoes, per MLB.com's Jason Beck, but there's still a ways to go in his recovery, and he's struggled to finish each of the last two seasons. Victor Martinez had a career year last season, finishing second in the AL MVP vote, and adding a bat like Yoenis Cespedes behind him should only help give more protection.
Can Role Players Step Up?
After being released by the Astros, yes the almighty Houston Astros, J.D. Martinez went off for the Tigers. Career bests in every offensive category you can imagine, he was a driving force in getting Detroit into the playoffs. Is he capable of repeating his 2014?
Nick Castellanos is a former top prospect who struggled in his rookie season last year. He's turning 23 years old this March, so his best is still very much ahead of him, but with Cabrera and Martinez old and falling apart, the Tigers need him to step into his own in 2015.
Projected Lineup
| BA | HR | OPS | ||
| Ian Kinsler | 2B | .266 | 16 | .734 |
| Rajai Davis | OF | .265 | 6 | .688 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 1B | .317 | 32 | .952 |
| Victor Martinez | DH | .309 | 20 | .863 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | OF | .268 | 24 | .786 |
| J.D. Martinez | OF | .273 | 22 | .786 |
| Nick Castellanos | 3B | .264 | 13 | .722 |
| Alex Avila | C | .230 | 10 | .705 |
| Jose Iglesias | SS | .257 | 5 | .644 |
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Dodgers Stadium was the fourth-worst scoring environment in baseball last season.
Last season, the Los Angeles Dodgers scored the third-most runs on the road. They also finished with the highest OPS of any road team thanks to incredible depth from top to bottom in their lineup. After a flurry of offseason moves, new GM Andrew Friedman has added even more.
Offseason Moves
In one of the more underrated moves of the offseason, the Dodgers acquired Howie Kendrick from the Angels. While he doesn't have tremendous power, averaging 12 homers a year since 2011, or the speed of Dee Gordon, the man he's replacing, Kendrick is a career .292 hitter and proven run producer. Gordon's OBP fell to .300 in the second half of last season, while Kendrick just posted a career-high .347 on-base percentage, so he should fit in nicely behind L.A.'s new leadoff man, Jimmy Rollins.
The Ex-Phillies shortstop, Rollins won't be confused with Hanley Ramirez from an offensive standpoint, but he's no slouch either. He finished third in runs scored among shortstops, finishing ahead of Ramirez in home runs hit on the road as well. He also has been much healthier, averaging 149 games played over the past four seasons, compared to Ramirez's 116 per-year average.
In addition to letting Ramirez walk, the Dodgers traded Matt Kemp, but they're replacing him with one of baseball's top hitting prospects in Joc Pederson. The young slugger hit 30 homers with 30 steals last season, the first time a Pacific Coast League player had done so in 80 years. FanGraphs isn't very optimistic about his average for next season, but he's had a great eye throughout his minor league career, and is projected to hit 20 homers with 19 steals in his first year. Not bad for a player primed to hit toward the bottom of the order.
Last but not least, they also added Yasmani Grandal in the Kemp trade. In 2014, Grandal's oWAR was 2.2, while incumbent A.J. Ellis' production fell off a cliff, from a 2.3 oWAR in 2013 to a minuscule 0.1. Projected to hit eighth in the Dodgers' lineup, Grandal should provide a serious offensive upgrade.
Projected Lineup
| BA | HR | OPS | ||||
| Jimmy Rollins | SS | .237 | 13 | .664 | ||
| Howie Kendrick | 2B | .275 | 9 | .720 | ||
| Yasiel Puig | OF | .294 | 22 | .868 | ||
| Adrian Gonzalez | 1B | .280 | 24 | .801 | ||
| Carl Crawford | OF | .273 | 11 | .728 | ||
| Juan Uribe | 3B | .253 | 11 | .682 | ||
| Joc Pederson | OF | .225 | 20 | .705 | ||
| Yasmani Grandal | C | .241 | 13 | .736 | ||
| Pitcher |
Boston Red Sox
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Fenway Park was the fifth-best scoring environment in baseball last season.
The Boston Red Sox finished 21st in runs scored on the road last season, but their lineup added some serious punch late in the 2014 season, and even more this offseason.
Developing Youth
Mookie Betts thrived in his late-season promotion, generating a .368 on-base percentage and a .444 slugging percentage in 52 games. Cuban phenom Rusney Castillo enjoyed a brief taste of the MLB life, so while he's a bit of a wild card, after the tremendous success of Yasiel Puig and Jose Abreu, it's hard to imagine Castillo not having a positive impact.
Xander Bogaerts has all the potential in the world. I'm a big believer in his talent and he'll have a great 2015, despite his struggles last season. NESN reported that Christian Vazquez, the Red Sox's catcher, may be the next Pudge Rodriguez...defensively, at least. Any offense they get from Vazquez will be a bonus.
If these young players click, watch out. If they flop, this offense may be nothing more than average.
Injury Risk
The Red Sox would be higher on my list, probably No. 1, if it was guaranteed their lineup could stay healthy for the entire season.
Dustin Pedroia not only has declining production, but he can't stay healthy. Hanley Ramirez will bring a huge boost when he's on the field, but he's played in more than 128 games just once in the past four seasons. Even Pablo Sandoval has missed a lot of time due to injury, averaging 131 games played since 2011. Mike Napoli gets hurt (averages 120 games played over last four seasons), David Ortiz is 39 years old and 34-year-old Shane Victorino played just 30 games last season.
Are the injuries just a matter of time?
For now, they're all healthy, so they can hold onto this lofty spot.
Projected Lineup
| BA | HR | OPS | ||
| Mookie Betts | OF | .284 | 8 | .775 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 2B | .283 | 10 | .758 |
| David Ortiz | DH | .277 | 26 | .862 |
| Halney Ramirez | OF | .291 | 20 | .839 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 3B | .291 | 18 | .811 |
| Mike Napoli | 1B | .244 | 22 | .796 |
| Rusney Castillo | OF | .279 | 10 | .763 |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | .256 | 15 | .725 |
| Christian Vazquez | C | .248 | 5 | .664 |
Seattle Mariners
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Safeco Field was the worst scoring environment in baseball last season.
The Seattle Mariners? This is the No. 1 lineup in the American League? I must be out of my mind.
I thought so, too, but after looking at the stats the numbers show they are one of the best lineups in baseball.
All-Star Power
This lineup has gone through a complete reconstruction, adding stars in Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz via free agency while developing some of their own in Kyle Seager and Mike Zunino (tied for third-most home runs among catchers). These guys could all be All-Stars next season, with Seager and Zunino still having more potential to grow and develop.
Boring-Name, High-Production Infield
Logan Morrison hit 23 home runs in 2011, but has hit 28 total in the three years since. However, in Seattle he hit 11 home runs with his highest slugging percentage (.420) since that 2011 season (.468), finally resembling the player of his breakout season. Brad Miller struggled mightily last season, but he's a mini Ian Desmond just waiting to break out, and if this is the year he's one devastating ninth-spot hitter.
Underrated Outfield
Austin Jackson isn't perfect, but he'll be 28 years old this season and is one year removed from a 12 home run season with a .337 on-base percentage and 99 runs scored. The Seth Smith (.839 career OPS vs. lefties) and Justin Ruggiano (.836 career OPS vs. righties) acquisitions will pay off handsomely, as that platoon should generate above-average production. While Dustin Ackley isn't perfect, the former No. 2 overall pick seemed to find his groove in the second half of last season, hitting 10 home runs with a .783 OPS.
The Mariners tied for fifth among all teams in runs scored on the road last season. Take this lineup out of the pitchers haven that is Safeco Field and place them in a neutral park, they're a top five or 10 offense in baseball. Add Nelson Cruz's MLB-leading 40 home runs from 2014 to that mix?
You have one of the top lineups in all of baseball.
Projected Lineup
| BA | HR | OPS | ||
| Austin Jackson | OF | .256 | 9 | .693 |
| Seth Smith | OF | .249 | 11 | .739 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | .295 | 18 | .821 |
| Nelson Cruz | DH | .249 | 26 | .767 |
| Kyle Seager | 3B | .262 | 21 | .763 |
| Logan Morrison | 1B | .254 | 20 | .756 |
| Mike Zunino | C | .219 | 19 | .681 |
| Dustin Ackley | OF | .252 | 13 | .705 |
| Brad Miller | SS | .248 | 10 | .699 |
Washington Nationals
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Nationals Park was the sixth-best scoring environment in baseball last season.
The Washington Nationals are the best team in baseball (on paper) and it's not close. With the addition of Max Scherzer, they may have baseball's best starting rotation since the Baltimore Orioles of the 1970s. In 2015, they'll have one of the best lineups to go along with it.
Top-Flight Infield
Ryan Zimmerman was limited to 61 games last season, but he'll shift to first base this season to try to help overcome shoulder/arm injuries. From 2009-13 he averaged 24 homers and 83 RBI with a .359 on-base percentage. A return to his All-Star form would replace the loss of Adam LaRoche.
The Nats' "worst hitter" is Yunel Escobar, who has a .276 career batting average with decent pop for a second baseman. With Ian Desmond and Anthony Rendon, you have the best left side in baseball, as they both could hit 30 home runs and drive in 100. Desmond is heading into a free-agency season, so he only has $150 million or so reasons to be motivated. Oh yeah, they also have a catcher in Wilson Ramos whose per-162-game average is 27 home runs with 104 RBI.
Top-Flight Outfield
Denard Span is one of baseball's most underrated leadoff hitters, finishing tied for the most hits in the National League last season, not to mention having a .355 on-base percentage, which was 18th-best in the NL. Jayson Werth had a top-10 OPS in the National League last season (.849). While he underwent surgery this month, he's expected to be ready for the opener.
Then there's this guy Bryce Harper. If you haven't heard of him, then I'm not sure what you're doing reading this article. But just in case, watch this and get excited for his breakout. He's an MVP just waiting to happen, he just has to stay healthy.
The Nationals weren't as great statistically last season as this type of lineup would suggest, finishing 17th among runs scored on the road. However, getting a full season of Zimmerman, a breakout campaign from Harper and the continued emergence of Anthony Rendon, and this team should coast through the NL into the playoffs with one of the best lineups in baseball.
Projected Lineup
| BA | HR | OPS | ||
| Denard Span | OF | .282 | 5 | .724 |
| Anthony Rendon | 3B | .279 | 19 | .804 |
| Jayson Werth | OF | .285 | 16 | .829 |
| Bryce Harper | OF | .278 | 25 | .852 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 1B | .275 | 19 | .793 |
| Ian Desmond | SS | .258 | 18 | .729 |
| Wilson Ramos | C | .269 | 16 | .755 |
| Yunel Escobar | 2B | .271 | 7 | .700 |
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, MLB.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted/linked.
To talk baseball or follow the latest rumors, check in with me on Twitter: @ZPetersel.
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