Big MLB Contender Question Marks That Are Flying Under the Radar
No team is ever perfect in MLB, and the following contenders are no exception. Despite talent-laden rosters, plenty of baseball's top teams will enter the season with alarming question marks and concerns.
To be clear, the following teams will likely all finish near the top of the standings in 2015. It wouldn't surprise anyone if each club discussed in this list qualifies for postseason play and enjoys October baseball.
But that shouldn't mask the glaring weaknesses facing these organizations in the year to come. While other facets of the squad may be considered strengths, each team's Achilles' heel is capable of derailing their World Series dreams.
The Baltimore Orioles progressed to MLB's version of the Final Four last season, but the club's offense may be its weak link in the season ahead.
The Oakland A's saw playoff baseball in 2014 behind a strong starting rotation, but with numerous changes to its clubhouse chemistry, will the staff be able to replicate its good form?
Even the Washington Nationals, considered one of the best teams in baseball, will be nervous about the production of a bullpen filled with new faces.
The margin for error at the pinnacle of MLB is very small, and each of the following clubs will be hoping that their key worries won't lead to late-season heartbreak in 2015.
So without further ado, let's try to diagnose which wobbly units could come back to haunt some of the league's best teams.
The Oakland A's Rotation
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Key Players
- Sonny Gray: 14-10, 219 IP, 7.52 K/9, 3.08 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 3.3 WAR
- Scott Kazmir: 15-9, 190.1 IP, 7.75 K/9, 3.55 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 3.3 WAR
- Jesse Chavez: 8-8, 146 IP, 8.38 K/9, 3.45 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 1.4 WAR
- Drew Pomeranz: 5-4, 69 IP, 8.35 K/9, 2.35 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 0.7 WAR
- Jesse Hahn: 7-4. 73.1 IP, 8,59 K/9, 3.07 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 0.8 WAR
Why the A's Should Be Worried
Billy Beane slid every last poker chip to the center of the table in 2014.
The Oakland A's had the look of a championship-caliber club to begin last season, boasting baseball's best record for most of the year. The A's success was predicated on a talented pitching staff that finished the year with the third-best ERA in MLB.
Beane saw a potential World Series in his team's future and decided to throw caution to the wind, acquiring Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija for the stretch run. Both pitchers performed to their customary levels with the A's in the second half, but the club sputtered in the season's final months. Oakland was eliminated from postseason play in the AL Wild Card Game by the future AL Champion Kansas City Royals.
As we close in on the 2015 season, gone are Lester, Samardzija and Jason Hammel. The A's are now faced with the challenge of competing in the improving AL West with a less talented rotation.
It's not all doom and gloom in the Bay Area, as Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir will be back after solid seasons a year ago.
Gray burst onto the scene at the end of 2013 with an impressive showing, and built on his rookie campaign last season. The right-hander logged over 200 innings and posted a 3.08 ERA. Gray's ability to coax opposing hitters into ground-ball contact (55.9 percent) was a large factor for his achievements.
Kazmir has bounced around the league since his young brilliance with the Tampa Bay Rays, but he enjoyed a career renaissance in 2014 with Oakland. The left-hander set a career high in wins, while posting his lowest ERA since 2007. Chris Cwick at FanGraphs notes that Kazmir's increased sinker usage was crucial to his comeback.
Besides Gray and Kazmir, Oakland will be relying on a handful of unknown commodities.
Jesse Chavez will have to take on a full-time starter role this season; a part the 31-year-old played well in 2014. The right-hander recorded a 3.45 ERA in 21 starts for the A's last season. But Chavez's breakout year came out of left field, as it took him five different teams to finally log over 300 career innings.
Rounding out the rotation are two youngsters in Drew Pomeranz and Jesse Hahn.
Pomeranz's numbers in starts over three seasons with the Colorado Rockies were dismal, but the southpaw enjoyed a 2.35 ERA in 10 starts for the A's last year. But a 3.77 FIP casts serious clouds over an otherwise sunny outlook for the lefty.
Hahn is the most intriguing back-of-the-rotation option for the 2015 A's. At just 25, Hahn has flashed big strikeout potential in the minors. The right-hander debuted with the San Diego Padres last season, striking out over nine per nine innings with a 3.04 ERA. Hahn's bugaboo remains his injury concerns that stem from Tommy John surgery earlier in his career.
The A's rotation could get a boost from the returns of Jarrod Parker and A.J Griffin from Tommy John at some point this season, but many of the healthy arms on the staff will enter spring training with multiple question marks.
Beane's track record of composing young, cheap and effective starting units is strong, so we'll reserve judgment until a later date. But with the season rapidly approaching, Oakland fans have every right to be concerned.
The Baltimore Orioles Lineup
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Key Players
- Adam Jones: .281/.311/.469, 29 HR, 96 RBI, 117 wRC+, 5.4 WAR
- Manny Machado: .278/.324/.431, 12 HR, 32 RBI, 111 wRC+, 2.5 WAR
- J.J. Hardy: .268/.309/.372, nine HR, 52 RBI, 90 wRC+, 3.4 WAR
- Chris Davis: .196/.300/.404, 26 HR, 72 RBI, 94 wRC+, 0.5 WAR
- Steve Pearce: .293/.373/.556, 21 HR, 49 RBI, 161 wRC+, 4.9 WAR
Why the Orioles Should Be Worried
The Baltimore Orioles bashed their way to the ALCS in 2015, leaving numerous hurlers with battered and bruised egos and ERA.
The O's hit 211 home runs in 2014, finishing far and away as the league's very best. The AL East champions also finished in the top 10 in runs, average, slugging percentage and isolated power. Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones, Steve Pearce and Nick Markakis buoyed the Baltimore onslaught.
Cruz and Markakis will play elsewhere this season, and they'll be taking their 54 combined home runs with them. Unfortunately for the Orioles, the team's front office did virtually nothing to replace the departed production.
A big counter-argument can be made that the returns of Matt Wieters and Manny Machado, both of whom missed the majority of 2014, should act as de facto pickups.
Wieters played in only 26 games last season due to a season-ending elbow injury, but the 28-year-old had been a steady contributor to the O's success before he was put on the shelf. The Baltimore catcher hit more than 20 homers in three straight seasons from 2011-2013.
Machado too has endured his share of injury woes to begin his career, as the 22-year-old has undergone two different knee surgeries that have cut his season short in consecutive years. When the highly touted infielder has been on the field, he's shown what all the fuss has been about. He's got the potential to hit for a high average and chip in with 15 to 20 homers.
But even with the return of two key players, the O's lineup doesn't figure to be as dangerous as it was a year ago.
Adam Jones posted the fifth-highest WAR out of all center fielders and continued to be a run-producing force in the middle of the Baltimore lineup, despite the fact that he really might be allergic to taking pitches. But outside of Jones, the O's will need multiple guys to pick up the slack in order for the team to repeat as division champions.
That starts with Baltimore's most important player in the season ahead: Chris Davis.
After taking baseball by storm in 2013, Davis hit .196 in 2014. Although the slugger's strength has never been his average, Davis suffered through a power outage as well. He did manage to hit 26 homers, but the 28-year-old saw a big dip in his isolated power ranking and posted a feeble 96 wRC+. That's after Davis recorded 168 wRC+ in 2013.
With Cruz now in Seattle, the Orioles desperately need Davis to return to form and add some left-handed thump to the heart-of-the-order.
Steve Pearce will be another vital player for the Birds this season, as he seems poised for an everyday role after finishing the year with the second-highest WAR on the club. J.J. Hardy and Alejandro De Aza will also have to be productive for the Orioles in 2015.
Baltimore really missed the boat by not signing a free-agent outfielder this offseason. The club was linked to Nori Aoki and Colby Rasmus, among others, but failed to pull the trigger to add a replacement for Markakis. Pearce will likely see most of the time in right field, which could push rookie Christian Walker into full-time duty at first base.
The Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays all improved this winter, closing the gap between themselves and the division-winning Orioles. Baltimore may still move for another offensive piece, but don't be surprised to see the O's return to the rest of the pack after a 96-win campaign.
The Washington Nationals Bullpen
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Key Players
- Drew Storen: 65 appearances, 11 saves, 7.35 K/9, 1.12 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 0.9 WAR
- Aaron Barrett: 50 appearances, 10.84 K/9, 2.66 ERA, 2.59 FIP, 0.6 WAR
- Matt Thornton: 64 appearances, 7.00 K/9, 1.75 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 0.7 WAR
- Jerry Blevins: 64 appearances, 10.36 K/9, 4.87 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 0.7 WAR
- Craig Stammen: 49 appearances, 6.94 K/9, 3.84 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 0.6 WAR
Why the Nationals Should Be Worried
With the addition of Max Scherzer, the Washington Nationals look like the premier team in baseball. With a ridiculous rotation and a balanced offense, the Nats should cruise to another NL East title and make a serious run at a World Series trip.
But even the mighty Nationals aren't immune to uneasy feelings regarding their roster, as the club's bullpen could be the only thing that stands in the way of Washington and its first championship.
The bullpen wasn't an issue for the Nats in 2014. The unit ranked fourth in ERA with a 3.00 mark and a 5.2 WAR. In fact, the numbers prove that the NL East champs showcased the very best bullpen in the National League.
So what's the problem? Well, Washington lost several key relievers that were vital to its success.
The biggest void will be left by Tyler Clippard, who was traded to the Oakland A's for Yunel Escobar.
The 29-year-old primarily served in a setup role during his tenure with the Nationals. From 2009-2014, the right-hander appeared in 412 games, striking out over 10 per nine innings and posting a 2.64 ERA.
Washington will also miss Rafael Soriano and his late-inning experience. Soriano was ultimately replaced by Drew Storen as the club's closer in 2014, but the 35-year-old has more than 200 career saves on his resume, including a 43-save campaign for the Nats in 2013.
Those two absences were obviously going to make an impact, but Ross Detwiler's departure will be felt as well. Detwiler's ability to be the long man out of the bullpen or make a spot start was an underrated aspect of Washington relief corps.
Now on to what the Nationals do have.
It's now the Storen show in the ninth inning, as the 27-year-old won't have to look over his shoulder in 2015. The right-hander has enjoyed plenty of success in his career, but his 1.12 ERA in 2014 was a career best. Storen's WHIP was as low as it has ever been, mainly due to allowing the fewest walks of his career. Limiting baserunners is a positive sign for a guy intent on having a long career as a ninth-inning stopper.
The Nationals have a few options to replace Clippard, and Chase Hughes at CSN Washington thinks the club will fill that spot from within. He mentions Aaron Barrett, Matt Thornton, Craig Stammen, Jerry Blevins and Blake Treinen as eighth-inning possibilities.
Thornton and Stammen are capable relievers, but neither inspires much confidence in a setup role. Meanwhile, Blevins posted an eye-opening strikeout percentage in 2014. But he's much more successful against lefties than righties and will likely be used in those types of situations.
Barrett certainly made a claim for the spot last year with a sub-3.00 ERA and nearly 11 K's per nine. Treinen is a projected starter, but could be used in a bullpen role in the short-term due to his blazing heater.
A positive byproduct of the Scherzer deal is the Nats' ability to use Tanner Roark in the later innings. The right-hander won 15 games and posted a 2.85 ERA, so a move to the bullpen will help bolster the inexperienced unit.
Washington has a serviceable cast of relievers, but the group isn't on par with the rest of its roster. That's not a bad thing, as the pen doesn't need to be elite for the Nationals to win their division.
But before the postseason, where weak bullpens are exposed, the team should think about upgrading its late-inning options.
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The Pittsburgh Pirates Rotation
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Key Players
- Francisco Liriano: 7-10, 162.1 IP, 9.70 K/9, 3.38 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 1.6 WAR
- Gerrit Cole: 11-5, 138 IP, 9.00 K/9, 3.65 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 2.1 WAR
- A.J. Burnett: 8-18, 213.2 IP, 8.00 K/9, 4.59 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 1.0 WAR
- Jeff Locke: 7-6, 131.1 IP, 6.10 K/9, 3.91 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 0.1 WAR
- Vance Worley: 8-4, 108.2 IP, 6.46 K/9, 2.73 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 1.5 WAR
Why the Pirates Should Be Worried
Despite being ousted by the eventual World Series champs in the NL Wild Card Game, the 2014 Pittsburgh Pirates season should go down as a success. The Pirates won 88 games and qualified for the postseason for the second season in a row.
With the great Andrew McCutchen in the middle of the lineup, Pittsburgh's offense was one of the most potent units in the NL. But a surprisingly competent starting rotation was the key to the Buccos' winning ways.
In 2014, Pittsburgh starters ranked eighth in MLB with a 3.49 ERA. While Edinson Volquez did bolt for Kansas City, the Pirates managed to bring back Francisco Liriano to the fold. The lefty didn't quite duplicate his wonderful 2013, but his 3.38 ERA and nine strikeouts per nine were valuable assets to the Pittsburgh staff last year.
The Pirates will also be able to depend on the emerging Gerrit Cole in 2015. The former No. 1 overall pick is just beginning to hit his stride as a major leaguer. The right-hander is 21-12 with a 3.45 ERA in two seasons in "the Show," and a healthy season could see the 24-year-old elevate his game to the next level.
With Liriano and Cole, Pittsburgh has a superb one-two punch at the top of its rotation. But the rest of the staff doesn't instill similar good vibes.
Jeff Locke would be decent fifth starter but will need to really up his game this season. The left-hander has a career ERA of 4.00, and although his 3.91 mark in 2014 wasn't terrible, an FIP of 4.37 indicates Locke may have overachieved.
Likewise, Vance Worley is a useful piece who posted a sub-3.00 ERA in 2014 but isn't the consistent third option this team really needs. Worley is only two years removed from a 7.21 ERA in a disastrous season with the Minnesota Twins.
The Pirates are also gambling on veteran A.J. Burnett being able to replace some of what Volquez gave them last season. Burnett enjoyed a career resurgence with Pittsburgh in 2012-13, winning 26 games and posting an under-3.50 ERA.
But at 38, it's unclear what the right-hander can provide Pittsburgh in a second go-round. Burnett looked washed up with the Philadelphia Phillies last year, going 8-18 with a 4.59 ERA. He did log over 200 innings for the Phils in 2014, but the Pirates need Burnett to be more than just an innings-eater.
Another alternative is right-handed prospect Tyler Glasnow, who could be ready for his shot in the bigs at some point in 2015. B/R's own Mike Rosenbaum sees the 6'7" hurler's ceiling as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter with significant upside. If the Pirates want to shake up their rotation sometime during the season's middle months, Glasnow's name could end up on the lineup sheet.
Russell Martin's departure also has to be mentioned, as the former Pirates catcher did a masterful job with the Pittsburgh staff. Baseball Prospectus has Martin down for 110.9 extra strikes in 2014, proving his catching acumen. As Jeff Sullivan at FanGraphs notes, Francisco Cervelli is a pretty good receiver himself. But Martin is a major loss for the Pittsburgh rotation.
Pirates fans haven't been able to enjoy a run of this type of success in years, but for the Buccos to make the postseason for the third straight season, their staff will need to overachieve even more than it did in 2014.
Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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