Australian Open 2015: 10 Bold Predictions at Melbourne After Day 1 Results
Day 1 left a sour taste in the mouths of several seeded women in the 2015 Australian Open, none more sour than No. 5 seed Ana Ivanovic who lost in three sets to Czech qualifier Lucie Hradecka.
"It's hard," said Ivanovic on ESPN.com. "There is no easy way to [get over it], but to get back on the court and back working really hard and try to see next challenge and next event. It has to hurt, as well."
Maybe that was a bold prediction wasted that so many seeded women exited this Grand Slam kickoff.
We soldier on because there’s still plenty of tennis to play Down Under with Rafael Nadal coming back after his injury and Roger Federer getting the dingo end of the stick in his draw.
Will Victoria Azarenka out-play her non-seeding and can Kei Nisihikori oust Stan Wawrinka in the quarters?
Nothing but the boldest of predictions from here on out.
Sara Errani Defeats Simona Halep
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When Sara Errani and Simona Halep meet in the quarterfinals, it will be Errani who wins the rubber match between these two. The pair have never met in a Grand Slam and stand at 1-1 against each other.
Now, there are no seeded players in Errani’s way to the quarterfinals with the first-round upsets of Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Sabine Lisicki.
Errani has reached the quarterfinals in Melbourne before, this being back in 2012. The past two years saw her lose in the first round. Now she’s out of the first round with daylight ahead of her until her inevitable (?) run-in with Halep.
Errani’s strength is definitely on clay where she has been a runner-up and semifinalist at the French Open. A relative breakthrough in the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open has her primed for a run on the hard courts.
Kei Nishikori Reaches the Quarterfinals Again
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Kei Nishikori became the darling of the U.S. Open by playing several matches with very little rest. He then took Stan Wawrinka to five sets and beat him in the quarterfinals.
Nishikori will make it all the way to the quarters in the Australian Open and face Wawrinka again, but it will be Wawrinka exacting revenge on the 5'10" player from Japan.
In the Australian Open a year ago, he made Nadal earn his trip out of the quarterfinals. Nadal said, via SBS.com:
"He is able to hit the ball very early. That's very difficult. He is doing very easily. For me, I was in trouble. The ball was coming back very very very quick. It was difficult for me to take the position from inside the court. I was close to lose every set. So just congratulate Kei because he's playing great, and I really feel that he will have a great season.
"
Nishikori will reach the quarters again but will run into an overlooked Wawrinka eager to overhead slam all doubters.
Victoria Azarenka Reaches the Semifinals
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Victoria Azarenka can reach the semifinals of this tournament. Few pundits think highly of her, but Vegas does.
Odds Shark lists her as a co-fifth choice at 10-1 to win the tournament. That put her on the same betting line as 10-1 Petra Kvitova, last year’s Wimbledon champion.
"For me, in my mind, I skipped the whole season," she said of 2014 via ESPNW. "I was never healthy, I was never prepared. I was never training full time the way I wanted to train. I wasn't ... mentally there. ... But I am prepared to be ready again."
Only Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova, Simona Halep and Caroline Wozniacki have higher odds.
Azarenka gets a first-round matchup against the young American upstart Sloane Stevens and then a second-round tilt against Wozniacki. After that, Azarenka could face Alize Cornet, the woman who upset Williams at Wimbledon.
Azarenka is a former world No. 1 and a two-time winner of this event. She had an injury-riddled 2014 and comes into this tournament unseeded with a lot to prove.
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No. 20 David Goffin Sends No. 10 Grigor Dimitrov Home
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David Goffin can and will upset Grigor Dimitrov in the third round. The two previously met in the round of 32 at the U.S. Open with Dimitrov taking the match.
Goffin got the jump on Dimitrov, winning the first set 6-0. Then Dimitrov settled in and won the next three fairly easy, 6-3, 6-4, 6-1.
Steve Tignor, a senior writer for tennis.com, said this about Dimitrov: "At the moment, he has been passed in the Next Big Thing category by Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic."
Dimitrov is in the brutal quarter of the draw that has Federer and Andy Murray. Goffin isn’t a bad player. He’s No. 22 in the world and the No. 20 seed in this tournament.
Goffin will first have to get past No. 78 ranked Marcos Baghdatis in the second round, a player Goffin is 0-1 against, to face Dimitrov. Once through, Goffin will give Dimitrov trouble.
Serena Williams Won't Win Grand Slam No. 19 Here
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Serena Williams can sometimes still look like a world beater. Other times she checks out.
Sometimes the heat affects her more than others and sometimes the long grind of being No. 1 takes its toll. Can she win this?
"If she wants to," last year’s Australian Open champ Li Na told AusOpen.com.
In the bottom half of the draw sits No. 2 seed Maria Sharapova. Sharapova won the Brisbane International and is super hungry to be the world No. 1. The combination of that hunger and Williams’ periodic lack of drive could swallow her up in Melbourne.
Bleacher Report contributor Trevor Murray wrote: "That's because poor form, ageing [sic] and a lack of smooth preparations have seen her stock depleted in recent times. And that could affect her surge."
The way it's shaping up, this could be her most challenging Slam yet.
Williams is only 9-4 to win this tournament according to Odds Shark where, in years past, she’s been as low as 10-13 to win it.
Roger Federer Gets Bounced in the 3rd Round
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It’s conceivable for Federer to lose somewhere in his quarter of the bracket. He got a tough draw.
He could face Andy Murray or Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals and nobody would be surprised, per se. Those two are top-10 talents.
Federer has simple tasks in the first and second rounds, but once he reaches the third round, things could get very tough.
Forecasting the weather here, Federer should face No. 29 seed Jeremy Chardy.
"Chardy matches up really well against Federer, and all three of their encounters in 2014 went the distance. Chardy lost 6-3 in the third set in Brisbane, saved a match point in Rome in defeating Federer 8-6 in the third set tiebreak, and then lost 6-4 in the third set at the Paris Masters. Chardy believes, which makes him even more lethal.
"
Federer is usually a lock to reach Week 2 in a major tournament. In fact, since 2004, he failed to reached the second week just once (the 2013 U.S. Open).
This draw is brutal for Federer, and if Chardy "believes"—as O’Shannessy stated—it’s within the realm of reason to think Federer could go down.
Eugenie Bouchard Reaches Her 5th Straight Grand Slam Semifinal
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Eugenie Bouchard is no flash in the pan and will reach her fifth consecutive semifinal in a Grand Slam.
That job just got easier, in theory, with the flock of seeded players who exited their first-round matches with little to show except wounded pride. Svetlana Kuznetsova is chief among the seeded players whom Bouchard would have faced.
Bouchard, armed with the Genie Army, trounced her first-round opponent Anna-Lena Friedsam 6-2, 6-4 while Bouchard’s other seeded sisters fell by way of the Great Barrier Reef.
"The Genie Army started here last year, I’m happy they are still alive and strong," Bouchard told The National Post. "The first match of a Grand Slam is never easy, I’m happy to get through. I’m so happy to be back in Melbourne. The support here is crazy.”
Bouchard, with her powerful game and eastern Canadian beauty in her arsenal, has garnered a following that puts the power of the people securely in the hip of her skirt.
Rafa Nadal Reaches the Final
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If healthier than he says he is (which is a strategy that could prove valuable for the Spaniard), Nadal was practically gifted a trip to the Australian Open final. If his play on Day 1 was any indicator, Nadal could be a force.
The highest-seeded player in his quarter of the bracket is No. 7 seed Tomas Berdych, a player Nadal has owned with a record of 18-3 head-to-head. Nadal hasn’t lost to Berdych since LeBron James played for the Cavaliers...the first time. This being 2006.
So Nadal has this wrist injury and he’s saying things like this in an Associated Press story (via ESPN.com): "I don't consider myself one of the favorites here... I would be lying if I say I feel that I am ready to win."
Well, at 10-1 according to Odds Shark, Nadal is the fourth choice and, yes, a favorite to win this tournament.
Nadal’s road to the final is paved, while someone like Federer must deal with a craggy path resembling the Appalachian Trail.
Nadal’s biggest hurdle is his health, No. 1, and No. 2 whoever he faces in the semifinal next week. That could be Federer, Murray or Dimitrov, and if Nadal faces any of them, he has a combined record of 43-20 against.
Maria Sharapova Loses to Eugenie Bouchard
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Maria Sharapova will fall to Bouchard in the quarterfinals.
Right now Sharapova is unbeaten against the Katniss Everdeen of the Genie Army, 3-0, but there’s a fire in Bouchard that is equal and opposite to Sharapova’s drive for the No. 1 ranking.
This is your classic unstoppable force meets an immovable object.
Who wants this more? Who is under more pressure? Is it the woman on the rise, or the one wants to surpass her decade-long rival at the top?
It could be that Sharapova digging herself into early holes will finally catch up to her. After Bouchard’s coming of age in 2014, she looks ready to be the pit bull refusing to let go of the pant leg.
Sharapova doesn’t escape her match with Bouchard. That is, of course, if they meet.
Stan Wawrinka Will Defend His Title
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Swallowed up in all the talk of Federer trying to get Grand Slam No. 18 and Nadal coming back from that wrist injury is Stan Wawrinka, the 2014 champion of this event.
Not many champions fly under the radar like Wawrinka, and that’s why he stands a great chance at beating Novak Djokovic in the semifinals en route to the final this year.
Wawrinka told Duetsche Welle:
"I'm not focused on that. I feel great coming here. I've been getting a lot of confidence, winning the first tournament of the year. I know I can do it (win the Open), that's not the question. But it's a long way for that. For me, most important is to be ready for the first match. I know how it is. I've been playing so many years to know the deal. You have to be ready, take match after match, and see where you can go.
"
So far as men from Switzerland go, he doesn’t move the meter the way Federer does, but he did beat Djokovic in the quarterfinals of this event a year ago and he’ll do it again.
All head-to-head stats were taken from WTATennis.com and ATPWorldTour.com.
I hang around on Twitter @BrendanOMeara.
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