Australian Open 2015: Identifying Stars with Toughest Roads to Grand Slam Glory
The men's and women's singles champions at the 2015 Australian Open will ultimately have to earn it no matter what, but it is quite apparent that some have a far more difficult route to a Grand Slam title than others.
Players who are seeded highly should conceivably have an easier path, but it doesn't always work out that way. It often comes down to the luck of the draw, which can result in top players having to face tricky opponents in the opening rounds.
It doesn't get much easier from there as the field thins out either, which means plenty of stars are in for a major grind.
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With that in mind, here is a look at three well-known players who will have their work cut out for them Down Under.
Rafael Nadal
As a 14-time Grand Slam winner, Rafael Nadal is considered a top contender at every major tournament. Based on his recent play, however, it can be argued that Rafa will have a difficult time winning his second Australian Open title.
Nadal returned to action at the Qatar Open at the beginning of the month after sitting out two months due to injury. The Spanish superstar fell in the first round to relative unknown Michael Berrer, which has many questioning Rafa's form.
Even Nadal himself is down on his chances of winning the Aussie Open, according to The Associated Press (h/t ESPN.com).
"I don't consider myself one of the favorites here," Nadal said. "I would be lying if I say I feel that I am ready to win. In terms of being favorites, the other names are more favorite than me at this time."
That mindset is only compounded by the fact that Nadal has a tough road ahead of him. It starts with a hugely difficult first-round match against Russia's Mikhail Youzhny, who has had some success against Rafa in the past, per Australian Open on Twitter:
If Nadal can pass that test, he should have an easier match against either Luke Saville or Tim Smyczek. His potential third-round match against 28th-seeded Lukas Rosol is a possible roadblock that has many excited, including Ben Rothenberg of The New York Times:
Rosol shockingly eliminated Nadal in the second round of Wimbledon 2012, so he knows what it takes to defeat one of the best on a big stage.
The projected matchups after that would include big-serving South African Kevin Anderson in the fourth round, No. 7 seed and former Aussie Open semifinalist Tomas Berdych in the quarters, Roger Federer or Andy Murray in the semis and No. 1 Novak Djokovic in the final.
Nadal's final few matches would be extremely difficult, but there is a chance he won't even get that far based on how tough his early-round matchups figure to be.
Rafa is a major question mark based on his play alone, and his draw doesn't help in the least.
There was a ton of intrigue surrounding Victoria Azarenka entering the Australian Open due to her rare circumstances. The Belarusian star is a two-time Aussie Open champ and one of the best hard-court players in the world when she is healthy, but she is unseeded after an injury-plagued 2014 season.
Luck certainly wasn't on Vika's side as she must survive one of the toughest roads possible over the opening two rounds, according to Australian Open on Twitter:
American Sloane Stephens has struggled as of late, but she has had Grand Slam success, including a run to the Australian Open semis in 2013. If Azarenka perseveres, then she may very well have to take on No. 8 seed Caroline Wozniacki, who was a U.S. Open finalist last year.
It hardly seems fair for Azarenka, considering the fact that she is among the winningest players on the women's tour, per WTA director of content and publications Kevin Fischer:
Following the first two rounds, Vika would conceivably be peppered with seeded opponents such as No. 25 Barbora Zahlavova Strycova and No. 11 Dominika Cibulkova before a quarterfinal meeting with world No. 1 and four-time Australian Open champion Serena Williams.
If Azarenka can do the unlikely and get to the semifinals, then either No. 4 Petra Kvitova or No. 6 Agnieszka Radwanska are possible opponents ahead of No. 2 Maria Sharapova in the final.
Azarenka essentially has to go through all of the top players in women's tennis to win her third Australian Open title, and there won't be a single opportunity for her to breathe.
All of the potential matches are difficult, which doesn't bode particularly well for her chances.
Andy Murray
Although he has made the finals three times and the semifinals on another occasion, an Australian Open title has long eluded Andy Murray. The No. 6 seed is looking to put a stop to that in 2015, but that will be easier said than done.
The first three rounds admittedly don't look particularly troublesome for the British star. After facing India's Yuki Bhambri, his likely opponents in the second and third rounds are Marinko Matosevic and No. 32 seed Martin Klizan. Assuming the two-time Grand Slam winner is able to deal with that, the rest of the tournament looks nightmarish.
As pointed out by BBC's Kheredine Idessane, Murray may have to go through the No. 10, No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the fourth round, quarterfinals and semifinals:
Grigor Dimitrov is far from a walk in the park so early in the tournament, and it is no secret that Federer and Nadal are two of the all-time greats. The difficulty doesn't end there, since Murray could be forced to lock horns with Djokovic in the final as well.
Even Murray himself admits that his draw isn't exactly desirable, according to ESPN Tennis:
""Very difficult draw...obviously it's going to be extremely difficult to come through that." -Andy Murray on tough #AusOpen draw
— ESPNTennis (@ESPNTennis) January 17, 2015"
Aside from the draw, Murray is also less than 100 percent from a physical perspective, as he is currently dealing with a shoulder ailment. Murray's road is tough enough at full health, and being injured will make it an even greater challenge.
With that said, Murray is a great hard-court player and undoubtedly one of the most talented competitors in the world. If he uses the draw as motivation, then he may have what it takes to conquer it.
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