Australian Open 2015: Analysing Rafael Nadal's Draw
Navigating a route to a Slam final can be unpredictable business. Analysing the path of Rafael Nadal, after a slow beginning to 2015 following surgery, may be nigh-on impossible. Irrespective of that, the 2015 Australian Open could yet open up for the world No. 3.
Luke Saville and Lukas Rosol could be early opponents for the Spaniard, with Tomas Berdych potentially a quarter-final opponent.
If Nadal should achieve a semi-final berth, it is likely he will play either Roger Federer or Andy Murray. This analysis opts for Murray, but in reality a flip of a coin could decide it.
The following slides will look at head-to-heads, recent performances and the likelihood of Nadal securing his 15th Grand Slam.
Round 1: Mikhail Youzhny
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Even if Mikhail Youzhny subscribed to the famous adage that questions the substance of statistics, he would find it a challenge not to look unfavourably on his record against Nadal.
ATP Head2Head shows that the Russian has won only four of the 15 meetings against Nadal. The most recent match between the two was in Rome last year, where the world No. 3 won in three sets.
That it is six meetings ago that Youzhny last beat Nadal suggests he might have his work cut out.
Still, this is not the Nadal of 2008. Youzhny will find belief in Nadal's indifferent start to 2015 following injury. The 14-time Grand Slam winner lost to Andy Murray in an exhibition match in Abu Dhabi before losing to No. 122-ranked Michael Berrer.
The point could be argued that now is the time to play Nadal, who was reported by the Daily Mail as saying: "Every match is tough for me as it is like we are starting everything again."
Baby steps for Nadal could well see him come unstuck. This could be the upset of the round, but Nadal should be able to rely on the bulldog within him that refuses to lie down.
Round 2: Luke Saville
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Should Nadal negotiate a route past Youzhny, it will be fascinating to see whether the home crowd's partisan support for an Australian will be unconditional.
Saville, 21, beat Dominic Thiem in Round 1 at Wimbledon last year, but he fell to eventual semi-finalist Grigor Dimitrov afterwards.
While it can be foolish to second guess, even a Nadal at 75 per cent of his ability should have enough in reserve to see off Saville.
This is not to undermine the man ranked No. 164 in the world. However, Nadal's poor start to the season and injury problems last year will hardly have condemned him to persistent battles to overcome the Challenger Tour's finest players.
There are no prior meetings between Nadal and Saville to assess what precedent might have already been set. It would, though, be hard to concoct a scenario in which last year's finalist didn't make the third round.
Round 3: Lukas Rosol
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Nadal might want to ensure a swift completion of his ritualistic behaviour should he meet Lukas Rosol in Round 3.
Bob McKenzie wrote for the Express at Wimbledon last year that the Czech was unhappy with the leniency shown by the umpire towards Nadal. He alleged that the world No. 3 showed negligence for timekeeping before serves, taking up to a minute.
Rosol said: "It should be the same for everyone but always the best players, they're taking much more than the normal players and nobody is telling them nothing."
It adds a little spice to a match-up that has occurred only three times before. Nadal leads 2-1 in the head-to-head and should feel confident of beating Rosol on a hard court for the second time.
The world No. 30 went out in the first round of hard-court tournaments 11 times out of a possible 18 in 2014. The fourth round should beckon for Nadal.
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Round 4: Kevin Anderson
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Kevin Anderson seemed to be on the periphery of making a concerted push for a run at a Grand Slam last year.
The tall South African lost in the round of 16 in three of the four Slams in 2014, losing to Tomas Berdych 2-6, 2-6, 3-6 at that stage in Melbourne last year.
It seems unlikely that he will crack the top 10 this season, despite showing flashes of promise with three wins over Stan Wawrinka in the last 12 months.
Nadal's record against Anderson gives little away, with the only meeting coming in Canada in 2010, and it resulted in a two-set win for the former.
Anderson will power the type of strong serves that a 6'8" frame allows, but he shouldn't be strong enough to edge out Nadal should he have made it this far.
Quarter-Finals: Tomas Berdych
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An early final appearance in Doha, albeit one that ended in defeat to David Ferrer, has got Tomas Berdych into the early-season groove.
In this respect, his preparations for the Australian Open seem a lot more satisfactory than Nadal's. However, by this stage of the tournament, both will have played four matches.
Berdych has also appointed a new coach in the shape of Dani Vallverdu. The Venezuelan won't take all the credit for Berdych's first final appearance of the year, but one final from one tournament isn't a bad way to start.
Nadal, though, has history on his side. Eighteen wins against Berdych to the Czech's three might fuel the seed of doubt in the world No. 7's mind. The last time Nadal lost this match-up was 17 matches ago.
However, progression for Berdych in a Slam seems likely. His semi-final appearance at this tournament last year means a Nadal short on confidence could be there for the taking.
Semi-Finals: Andy Murray
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It's been a bright start to the year for Great Britain's tennis players. Along with Heather Watson's Hobart title and Grand Slam qualification for James Ward and Kyle Edmund, Andy Murray also clinched a significant win.
Of course, the Scot's 6-2, 6-0 win over Nadal in the Mubadala World Tennis Championship was hardly an intense occasion with the media glare of, say, a Melbourne final. However, Murray's first win against a top-three player since Wimbledon 2013 was much needed.
Any remnant of the game could be used to Murray's advantage should a semi-final between the two occur. However, Roger Federer might have something to say about that.
Still, it is also worth remembering that Nadal at a semi-final stage will be a different animal to the one in Abu Dhabi.
With the departures of Dani Vallverdu and Jez Green appearing to have led to a settled Murray camp, the world No. 6 could overpower a less-than-assured Nadal. Murray's fight to earn his way back into the top four could start here.
Final: Novak Djokovic
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If Nadal reaches the final for the second year running, it might be safe to dismiss any current issues of form.
Injury prevented the Spaniard from challenging Stan Wawrinka fully in the Melbourne final last year. As long as he can keep his body from caving in on him, fans will be hoping for a final to remember, with his opponent almost certain to be Novak Djokovic.
Nadal, though, has been sporting his pragmatic hat in the build-up to the tournament, not even entertaining notions of winning the first Slam of the year
ESPN, via The Associated Press, reported that Nadal has been in a sceptical mood. He said: "I would be lying if I say I feel that I am ready to win."
Should Nadal surprise himself and set up a final encounter with Djokovic, history sits in his corner. He has 23 wins against Djokovic's 19 in this particular match-up. However, Djokovic should move ahead of Nadal in the head-to-heads soon if his dominance holds firm.
That being said, it would be churlish to suggest a clear winner in a hypothetical final between these players. The occasion will bring out the best in both; Djokovic's devastating forehand and Nadal's resolve.
History may side with Nadal, but the future may lean toward Djokovic.
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