2015 Australian Open: Top Storylines to Follow
The 2015 Australian Open is pregnant with storylines.
This tournament—this season—could be a watershed year with some of the all-time greats desperately holding on to the snowy cliff with the menacing youth standing above.
Roger Federer just notched his 1,000th career win in Brisbane by defeating Milos Raonic. Maria Sharapova is knocking on Serena Williams’ door for the No. 1 ranking in women’s tennis. Can Rafa Nadal, now lighter by a factor of one appendix, remind people who the most exciting player in tennis really is?
It may be winter here in the States, but it’s burning up in Melbourne. Read on for some southern hemisphere summer storylines from the Australian Open.
Is Serena Williams Losing Her Grip?
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Much was made last year about Williams losing her grip on the game’s biggest stages. She snuffed out that burning cigarette with her boot heel when she won the U.S. Open to claim her 18th Grand Slam.
Williams can be a bit enigmatic. What was in that espresso at the Hopman Cup?
Some will say Williams lost her edge, but she did just come off a year where she was No. 1 from the beginning of the year to the end. The last woman to pull that off was Steffi Graf in 1996.
Williams will be just fine if she can deal with the heat and focus. She hasn’t won an Aussie Open since 2010 and Sports Illustrated’s John Wertheim doesn’t seem at all concerned with her recent form: “Serena Williams is your top seed and favorite on the women’s side. She looked flat this week, but 'form entering' seldom has much predictive value with her.”
But there’s someone very hungry on her heels.
Will Maria Sharapova Become No. 1?
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Maria Sharapova is now No. 2 in women’s tennis after her win in the Brisbane International.
Sharapova, patron goddess of the mute button, made a habit of dropping first sets then grinding her way back into matches. She did it again in the Brisbane final against Ana Ivanovic.
"Right now I am No. 2; the next spot is [No.] 1. But that's how it is. Middle of last year people were talking about how I was barely in the Top 10 for I think four months. With any match I could have lost, could have been out of the Top 10. But I held my ground and I pulled through with grit and fight, and managed to finish the year off No. 2. That's not something I talked about with my team or myself. It was just focusing on matches.
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Now Sharapova is within 681 points of Williams. If Williams is upset early and Sharapova can reach the finals, Sharapova could be the world’s No. 1 player in two weeks.
Let's not forget. Williams is 16-2 head-to-head against Sharapova.
The Drive for Five
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Roger Federer isn’t the only player aiming for an unprecedented five Australian Open titles in the post-amateur era. Novak Djokovic has four of these titles as well.
These two had an epic final at Wimbledon, a true test for the ages.
Djoker is No. 1 in the world and Federer sits at No. 2. If these two can meet in the final, history will be made.
As it stands, Federer has the slight edge over Djokovic head-to-head, 19-17, but Djoker has won four of the last five finals matches against Federer.
Yes, both men vie for No. 5, which raises this question…
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Will Roger Federer Win His 18th Grand Slam?
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No, that's not binary code behind Federer. He became the third man to enter the 1,000-win club along with Jimmy Connors and Ivan Lendl.
Federer hasn't won a Grand Slam since the 2012 Wimbledon, and he hasn't won in Melbourne since 2010, though he has reached the semifinals in each year since, just not the finals.
“Yeah, I do believe that,” Federer said in The Washington Post about winning more major titles. “Clearly I do believe I have a shot in Melbourne, otherwise I would go home.”
Federer somehow keeps going. With Nadal not quite full strength and Djokovic coming in off a quarterfinals loss in Qatar, maybe Federer can steal his 18th Grand Slam.
Writes Kelyn Soong of The Washington Post:
"At an age when most tennis players have retired, the father of two sets of twins continues to defy expectations, still able to play at the highest level while holding off the younger generation of challengers. But one can wonder how much longer Federer can be a contender at Grand Slams.
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Rafa Nadal's Wrist
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Rafa Nadal is one of the hardest players on his body in this sport. Some players glide; Nadal thunders to the ball.
We missed him after he lost at Wimbledon, when he was defeated in the fourth round and subsequently nursed a wrist injury—an injury that kept him out of the U.S. Open.
"This is the third comeback of my career after injury, so we will see how it goes," Nadal said, per the Associated Press (h/t TVNZ.co.nz).
There’s barely a player on the planet more electric and exciting to watch than this Spaniard. He lost in the opening round in Qatar to Michael Berrer, so the screws may not be as tight as he’d like. He said in The Sydney Morning Herald:
"It would be better if I had a few more matches [approaching the Australian Open], but in the end that's what there is and the important thing for me is that I am back and healthy and competitive again. I've got to try my best in the first round, if I am able to win a couple of matches then you don't know.
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His early matches will tell the story. If he’s dominant, then we can expect a second week in Melbourne from Nadal. But if he struggles through his first and second matches, then a bid in the quarterfinals and beyond are unlikely.
Will Canada's Eugenie Bouchard Win Her First Grand Slam?
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One of Canada’s prime exports has been Eugenie Bouchard.
The 20-year-old reached the semifinals in each of the four Grand Slams including a berth in the Wimbledon final. In that match, Petra Kvitova would have had more action playing 20-foot concrete wall.
That’s a tad cruel, but Bouchard filed away her 2014 in her Dropbox and has moved on. She told The Independent:
"I don’t want even to think or talk about it. For me everyone talks about my great year in 2014. The way I look at it I lost every week except for one [when she won the title in Nuremberg]. I’m so not satisfied and I hate losing so much that while I know I had a good year and I’m proud of what I did, I know I can do better.
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People may be wondering if this will be her breakout year. Last year was her breakout year. Now she just has to back it up.
The women’s game is deep and strong, and if Bouchard can make 50 percent of the strides she made in 2014, she could win a Grand Slam this year, maybe in Melbourne.
Martina Navratilova Makes Her Coaching Debut
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If you could hire possibly the greatest female tennis player of all-time to be your coach, would you? Agnieszka Radwanska did by hiring Martina Navratilova.
Navratilova has 18 Grand Slam singles titles and will look to coach that kind of greatness out of Radwanska, the 25-year-old No. 6 player in the world.
So Radwanska, intelligently, posed the question to Navratilova. Navratilova told The New York Times:
"I’ve thought about a bunch of players, and she definitely would have been one of them because she has got all the shots. It’s not like I need to teach her the shots, maybe more when to use them. Different players bring different challenges, but she was definitely on my radar. I just didn’t think she would ask. I wasn’t going to pursue anybody, but if it happened, it happened, and if it didn’t, then it didn’t. I figured it would happen eventually.
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If Radwanska has all the shots, then why hire someone like Navratilova? The extra confidence it could give her may be worth an extra break across a big match.
There is that saying, “Go big or go home.” Too bad Radwanska isn’t left-handed.
Will the Real Petra Kvitova Please Stand Up?
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Petra Kvitova can look indestructible at times.
She made Bouchard look like a toddler in the Wimbledon final in 2014. For some reason, when it comes to hard courts Kvitova can’t get a grip.
Bleacher Report’s Joe Kennard wrote:
"While Kvitova's style of attacking tennis has found great success at Wimbledon, she too often looks overmatched on hard courts. The 24-year-old Czech isn't a natural mover, and her inability to track down shots is exposed in faster conditions and to opponents with similar power.
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Since reaching the semifinals in 2012, it’s been second- and first-round exits for Kvitova. Can she turn it around? She’s a second-week talent and she’s hungry for that.
Will Andy Murray Finally Win an Australian Open?
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Andy Murray, the No. 6 player in the world and winner of two Grand Slams, now has—wait for it—brand identity. It’s a logo that looks like Wolverine was Murray’s graphic designer.
Armed with a new logo, can we reasonably expect Murray to play exceptionally well at Melbourne? Given past performances, the answer must be an unequivocal yes.
He was runner up in 2010, 2011 and 2013. He reached the semis in 2012 and the quarters in 2014.
Mark Hodgkinson of Wimbledon.com wrote: “Victory would validate Murray's decision to work with former Wimbledon champion Amelie Mauresmo; it would also mean that he would be three quarters of the way to achieving the career Grand Slam.”
He should be healthier than he was a year ago so a deep run can be expected from him. A win? That’s asking too much.
What to Make of Victoria Azarenka
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Victoria Azarenka is a curious case.
She’s a two-time winner of this event and a former world No. 1. "Former" is a common word when talking about Azarenka. She enters this renewal of the Australian Open unseeded and will draw a top player early on.
That’s scary business for whoever has to get past her.
If Azarenka can quickly forget blowing two match points in the Brisbane International, then maybe she can win a match or two here and gain confidence for Roland Garros and beyond.
Phil Lutton of The Syndey Morning Times wrote: "[Nine] double faults, 44 unforced errors and a conversion rate of just four from 16 break point attempts says the 25-year-old needs more matches under her belt to be a genuine force in the first grand slam of the year."
Azarenka was beat up last year, only playing in 24 matches. No one with half a brain would confuse her with her 2012 and 2013 doppelgangers, but even a 50 percent return to past form should win her a match or two.
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