Australian Open 2015: Predictions and Tournament Preview
It's hard to believe, but at long last, it's time for the first major tennis tournament of the year, the Australian Open. The qualifying rounds begin on January 14, with first-round action kicking off on January 19.
After a lengthy offseason that lasted multiple weeks, the tennis community is ready to gather back together on the blue courts of Melbourne to see which players will be able to add to their legacy in the scorching Australian summer.
Last year's tournament was a shocking one, with Stanislas Wawrinka claiming the men's title and Li Na taking the trophy for the women. After Li's retirement last fall, only Wawrinka will be back to defend.
Both tours are currently a fascinating mix of aging-but-still-relevant legends, revitalized veterans and fearless up-and-comers, and it should be fascinating to see which two athletes can come away as champions.
Here's a preview of what's to come during the 2015 Australian Open:
The State of the Men's Game to Begin 2015
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The Big Four are Being Threatened
Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic shocked the tennis world last year when they became only the second and third men since 2006 not named Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic or Andy Murray to win a major.
They weren't the only players to make strides, though—younger players Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic and Kei Nishikori finally showed that they were ready to be contenders as well. While all members of the Big Four are still a threat to win a Slam, a bit of parity seems to have rejoined the men's game once again.
But Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer Have Still Got It
That being said, Djokovic and Federer are still the top two players in the world for a reason. Djokovic made two Slam finals last season and won seven titles, including Wimbledon. Federer is showing no signs of slowing down—in fact, he's already won a title this year and notched his 1,000th win on the ATP Tour along the way. These guys are still the ones to beat.
Questions Surround Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray
Nadal is on the comeback from injury again after sitting out most of the second half of last season with a wrist injury (and then a back injury and then appendicitis). In his only tournament so far this year, he lost to No. 127 Michael Berrer.
Meanwhile, Murray spent all of last season trying to find his game after back surgery in 2013, and he didn't look like himself until the fall. The Scot hasn't made it to a Slam final since winning Wimbledon in 2013.
Their respective forms will determine a lot of what happens in Australia.
Men's Key Storylines at the Australian Open
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Will the Next Generation Be Able to Keep Making Progress?
As previously mentioned, last year, Raonic, Nishikori and Dimitrov led the charge of the next generation of tennis stars. However, none of them won a Slam, and only Nishikori made it to a Slam final.
They need to come out swinging in 2015 and prove that they're not just pleasant surprises; they're threats to win the title.
How Will Stan Wawrinka's Title Defense Go?
Wawrinka kicked off a crazy year on the ATP World Tour when he toppled an injured Nadal in the Australian Open final last year, and he remained relevant for the rest of the season, also winning his first Masters title in Monte Carlo and capturing the Davis Cup crown alongside Federer.
But defending a Slam is a level of pressure he's never experienced before. Can the Swiss star keep it together when he's under the microscope?
Will the Top Guns Reassert Their Dominance?
While all the pundits talk about the Big Four's fading dominance, all those guys want to do is focus on winning more Slams. Federer, Murray, Djokovic and Nadal are certainly all capable of winning this Australian Open, and depending on the draw, we could see them all go deep into the tournament.
It's worth watching whether these multiple-Slam winners will fend off parity for at least one more major.
Underrated Men's Players to Watch
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Nick Kyrgios
Kyrgios proved in 2014 that he's a big-match player, with a huge win over Nadal at Wimbledon and a run to the top 50. In front of his home country, the Australian teenager could do some damage at this Slam—as long as injuries don't derail his plans.
Juan Martin del Potro
He's back! The 2009 U.S. Open winner is back in action after missing the last 10 months of play due to yet another wrist injury. His ranking has toppled down to No. 338 in the world, but that's certainly not indicative of his talent; when Delpo plays well, he can beat anyone.
Milos Raonic
The 6'5" Canadian is off to a great start to 2015 after making it to the Sydney final and narrowly losing to Roger Federer. He's currently ranked No. 8, so his draw should be pretty good, and the conditions in Australia really suit him.
Raonic is often dismissed as just a serve, but the rest of his game has improved dramatically over the last year. He's one to watch for sure.
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Top Men's Contenders
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Novak Djokovic
Yes, this is a shocking statement, I know, but the world No. 1 and the four-time winner of this tournament has a great chance of going home with this title once again.
Roger Federer
Even though Federer is playing remarkably great tennis at the age of 33, his body will run out of steam one of these days. He needs to take advantage of his good form if he wants to add another Slam to his title list, and this wide-open Aussie Open could be just the place.
Rafa Nadal
We've seen Nadal come back from an injury before and steamroll the competition, and if he makes it through the first few rounds in Australia, there's no reason why he couldn't find his form and comfort and win his second Australian Open title. He's made the final the last two times he's played in Melbourne.
Andy Murray
If Murray can carry over his form from the end of the 2014 season, he could finally win this title. He's come close before, making the final in three of the last five years.
Stan Wawrinka
Don't sleep on the defending champion—he's ranked No. 4 in the world for a reason.
Men's Predictions
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Andy Murray Will Make the Semifinals
Murray's ranking might have dropped all the way down to No. 6 in the world, but he should be one of the final four men standing in Melbourne. He loves the blue courts in Australia and always has a good start to the season.
Milos Raonic, Grigor Dimitrov and Kei Nishikori Will All Make the Second Week
You'll see all three of these guys in the fourth round, and unless the draw makes it impossible, I wouldn't be surprised to see them all in the quarterfinals as well. No longer up-and-comers, they will all carry over the momentum they gained in 2014.
All Americans Will Lose Before the Third Round
Yes, it will be another embarrassing tournament for the American men. John Isner is currently the top-ranked guy at No. 21 in the world, but he has only made it past the third round in Australia once, way back in 2010. Guys such as Sam Querrey, Steve Johnson and Donald Young might win a round or two, but since they're unseeded, making it any farther would require some help.
Novak Djokovic Will Win
Bold pick, I know—for the fifth time in the last eight years, I expect the Serb to be the last man standing.
The State of the Women's Game to Begin 2015
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Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova Are Still Tops
The WTA is without its defending champion, as Li Na retired last fall, but things are still looking great for women's tennis with Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova leading the way at the top of the rankings.
Sharapova already has a title this year, and while Serena struggled in the Hopman Cup exhibition, she's always the one to beat at Slams.
The Top 20 Is Full of Legitimate Title Contenders
It's a pretty exciting time right now for fans of women's tennis, because the field of contenders is extremely deep.
Former No. 1s Caroline Wozniacki (No. 8) and Ana Ivanovic (No. 5) are playing some of the best tennis of their careers; Simona Halep (No. 3) and Agnieszka Radwanska (No. 6) are looking in great form. Two-time Wimbledon champ Petra Kvitova (No. 4) is lurking, as is Venus Williams (No. 18), who already has a title this year. And the list goes on.
The Next Generation Is Ready
While it's great to have the established stars playing well, there's also a lot of talented new faces in the mix. Of course, Halep is leading the way for the younger ladies, but Eugenie Bouchard (No. 7), Garbine Muguruza (No. 24), Elina Svitolina (No. 26) and Madison Keys (No. 33), among others, are all capable of making a deep run in Australia as well.
Women's Key Storylines at the Australian Open
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Is Simona Halep Ready to Win a Slam?
With so many in-form players in women's tennis right now, it's hard to know where to focus. However, my eyes will be on No. 3 Halep to see if she's finally ready to win her first Slam.
Halep, 23, had a breakthrough season last year, particularly impressing when she pushed Sharapova to the brink in a fantastic French Open final. But it's time for the Romanian Kim Clijsters to prove that she really is an elite player.
Will Serena Williams' Hopman Cup Form Carry Over?
Playing on a team with John Isner in the Hopman Cup exhibition to start 2015, Serena frequently looked sluggish and out of sorts, and it cost her when she lost to both Eugenie Bouchard and Agnieszka Radwanska. If the 18-time Slam champion wants to get No. 19, she is going to have to step it up in Melbourne.
Can Victoria Azarenka Find the Form That Won Her Two Australian Open Titles?
Lurking in the Australian Open draw will be Victoria Azarenka, the 2012 and 2013 champion who was out of sorts for the majority of last season due to injuries. The former No. 1 will be unseeded and could wreak havoc on the draw if she finds her game. After all, Azarenka has made the final of four of the last six hard-court Slams.
Underrated Women's Players to Watch
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Madison Keys
With Lindsay Davenport now as her coach, the time might be now for the 19-year-old Keys to have a big run at a Slam. The hard-hitting American often suffers from inconsistency in her go-big-or-go-home game, but another-year wiser and a legendary-coach stronger, she might finally be able to harness her own power.
Ekaterina Makarova
The soft-spoken Russian has been overshadowed by flashier compatriots in her career, but make no mistake about it: Makarova is dangerous. She's at a career-high ranking of No. 10 right now and has two quarterfinal appearances and a win over Serena Williams in her Australian Open resume. She's also coming off her best performance at a Slam, a semifinal showing in New York last fall.
Caroline Wozniacki
It's hard to call a former No. 1 and last year's U.S. Open finalist "underrated," but Wozniacki's defense-heavy game is often overlooked in favor of flashier players and more aggressive styles. But as we've learned over the last six months, a fit and focussed Wozniacki is a threat to everyone in the draw.
Top Women's Contenders
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Serena Williams
Williams will be 34 years old this year, and the American knows that she doesn't have forever to chase down Steffi Graf's record of 22 Slams. She'd like to get to 19 sooner rather than later.
Maria Sharapova
The Russian hasn't won this title since 2008, but after she took down the competition in Brisbane to start 2015, I see no reason why she can't get back to the winner's circle this year to get her sixth major title.
Simona Halep
Halep really cemented herself as a Slam contender when she destroyed Serena in their round-robin match at the WTA Finals last year in Singapore and then made it to the final of that event. She too began 2015 with a title, and her deceptively complete game could take her all the way in Australia.
Ana Ivanovic
The Serb's career renaissance started last year at the Australian Open when she upset Serena in the fourth round. She went on to win four titles and climb back to the top five in the rankings. When her forehand is clicking and her service yips are under control, she looks like the player who made the final here in 2008.
Women's Predictions
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Victoria Azarenka Will Fight Her Way to the Quarterfinals
I don't think that Azarenka is back into Slam-winning form quite yet, but I do think that we'll see the Belarusian dig deep and cause some upsets along the way to at least a quarterfinal appearance. She loves Melbourne too much to leave early.
Venus Williams Will Be in the Second Week
Venus hasn't made it to the fourth round of a Slam since 2011 Wimbledon, but I expect that older sister will end that streak Down Under. Venus won a title to begin the season in Auckland, taking out Wozniacki in the final, and she'll bring that great form to the year's first Slam.
Serena Williams Will Not Win
Because there are so many women in great form right now, I'm not comfortable making a prediction about the winner until the draw comes out. However, I don't think the eventual champion of this tournament will be Serena.
Serena used to dominate the Australian Open, winning it five times from 2003-2010. But in her past three visits, she hasn't been able to make it past the quarterfinals. The 18-time major champion looked pedestrian in her play at the Hopman Cup earlier this month, and unless there's a huge turnaround (which is certainly possible with Serena), she will be susceptible to an upset again this year.
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