Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks: Betting Odds, NFC Championship Pick

The Seattle Seahawks and the Green Bay Packers started the regular season against each other and will square off again Sunday in the NFC Championship Game at CenturyLink Field.

The defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks have won the last two meetings with the Packers, including a 36-16 rout in Week 1 as 4.5-point home favorites. Green Bay will face even longer odds this time around, opening as a 7.5-point road underdog with a gimpy Aaron Rodgers under center.

It faces a reality check in knowing it is just 2-6 as a playoff underdog in recent years while its hosts have won eight straight as playoff favorites.

NFC Championship Game point spread

The Seahawks opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer

35.9-31.8 Seahawks

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The biggest question mark in this game is Rodgers, who played well in the second half of last Sunday’s 26-21 playoff win over the Dallas Cowboys in the divisional round. As the front-runner for NFL MVP honors, he has been nothing short of spectacular in leading the Packers to wins in their last three games along with eight of their past nine.

However, the Green Bay quarterback can only take so much punishment and may have a hard time playing back-to-back weeks on the road. The key will be whether Rodgers can keep the Pack close in this one. He did just that in the first half of the last meeting with the Seahawks in the season opener before things fell apart after intermission.

If the rematch is close at halftime, bettors may see a much different result, with Rodgers seemingly growing stronger as the game wears on.

Why the Seahawks can cover the spread

Seattle’s defense has simply been outstanding during the team’s seven-game winning streak, which shifted the balance of power in the NFC to the Pacific Northwest from Green Bay.

The Seahawks have not allowed more than two touchdowns in any game during that stretch, and they have not surrendered more than two in either of the previous two meetings with the Packers.

That’s the main reason Seattle has covered the spread in almost every game during the winning streak with a 6-0-1 mark versus the line, falling right on the closing number in last Saturday’s 31-17 victory against the Carolina Panthers as a 14-point home favorite.

Green Bay has little chance to cover without scoring more than two touchdowns and virtually no shot to win in that scenario.

Smart pick

With a healthy Rodgers, the spread would be closer to that of the first meeting, but that’s not the case, due to his injured calf, and the Seahawks must be licking their chops defensively. As good as Rodgers is, he struggles when he cannot move around the pocket and will be facing the league’s best secondary in the Legion of Boom.

On the other side of the ball, Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson can give defenses fits with his scrambling ability, and the Packers have not fared well against mobile quarterbacks.

Seattle has won five in a row straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) at home against NFC North teams and has won eight straight playoff games when laying points.

Look for those trends to continue here against Green Bay.

Betting trends

• The Packers and the Seahawks have met twice in the playoffs, and the home team won both times (2004, 2008).
• The Packers are 2-6 SU as playoff underdogs since 1996.
• The Seahawks won eight straight as playoff favorites and are 5-2-1 ATS.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark; follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.