Splash Deals Desperate MLB Teams Should Consider Before Opening Day
The MLB landscape is finally beginning to take shape after a remarkably busy winter. However, various dominoes must still fall prior to Opening Day.
At this point in the offseason, antsy teams are often more willing to open up their checkbooks in order to lock down potential free-agent fits. Missing out on other high-profile targets, combined with gaudy expectations for the season ahead, can create a desperate situation.
As we get closer to spring training, two of the top free agents remain available. Both Max Scherzer and James Shields have coyly played a clever waiting game thus far. As pitching-needy teams rapidly approach the start of the season with suspect rotations, each front-line starter closes in on his desired payday.
Scouring through the other available free agents presents more notable names still needing a home in 2015. Colby Rasmus, Francisco Rodriguez and Ryan Vogelsong have yet to commit to an organization next season, but it just so happens a few MLB teams pose weaknesses that could make them potential bedfellows with these players.
The next few slides will try to create sensible combinations between available players and needy teams. As the old adage goes, desperate times call for desperate measures, so let's see if we can play MLB matchmaker.
As always, your comments create great dialogue that drive continued conversation. Make sure to let your voice be heard in the section below.
Here we go!
Max Scherzer to the Detroit Tigers
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Max Scherzer and his agent Scott Boras are standing their ground in terms of Scherzer's worth. Jon Morosi at Fox Sports believes that the duo are seeking a contract in excess of $200 million, something only one other pitcher in baseball history (Clayton Kershaw) has ever obtained.
The 30-year-old hurler has been linked to numerous clubs this offseason, with the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers all believed to have seriously inquired about the former AL Cy Young winner.
As the winter has progressed, that group has dwindled slightly for various reasons. The Yankees, Cardinals and Tigers seem to be the favorites to win Scherzer's allegiance.
The Yankees remain players in the Scherzer sweepstakes for the sheer fact that the club seems to print its own currency and may be the most likely to match his desired sum. Meanwhile in the Midwest, the Cardinals are keen to acquire a front-line starter, and Morosi and Ken Rosenthal with Fox Sports believe St. Louis is pondering a splurge on Scherzer. The right-hander grew up a Cardinals fan, but the report mentions that Boras doesn't often "grant hometown discounts."
That leaves Detroit, Scherzer's home since 2010, as the most likely match. Tony Paul at DetroitNews.com has reported that a source within the Tigers organization believes the Tigers "have to have" Scherzer in free agency.
Why It Makes Sense
For Scherzer, Detroit represents the place where he has established himself as one of the premier pitchers in all of baseball.
Since his Tigers debut in 2010, Scherzer is 82-35 with a 3.52 ERA in 161 starts. He's struck out over nine per nine innings during that stretch, a mark that ranks fourth in all of baseball. That includes a 2013 season that ended with a 21-3 record, 2.90 ERA, over 10 K's per nine and the AL Cy Young Award.
The Tigers won the AL Central again in 2014, before another bullpen implosion led to the club's demise in the ALDS. But with a stacked lineup, a rotation that includes Scherzer, David Price, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez and Alfredo Simon would position the Tigers as the favorites in the American League.
Without Scherzer, the Detroit rotation goes from potentially great to highly questionable. Verlander's not nearly the same pitcher he was in his prime, Price's long-term future with the club is cloudy, Sanchez has had difficulty remaining healthy and Simon is coming over from the National League.
Although Scherzer refused to sign a six-year, $144 million extension before the 2014 season, you would tend to think the flamethrower would welcome a return to familiar surroundings. Jon Heyman at CBS Sports believes Scherzer will command much more than Detroit's previous offering in free agency, but he cites Boras' "long history of big and mostly successful deals" with Tigers' owner Mike Ilitch as reason for the Detroit faithful to be optimistic regarding a Scherzer-Tigers reunion.
Plus, the Tigers wouldn't lose a first-round pick if Scherzer bolts for greener pastures.
Projected Contract
Although Scherzer wants over $200 million, he'll probably need to lower his asking price a tad in any potential deal. If he's going to take less money than originally perceived, he's likely to do so in a comfortable situation a la Detroit.
Felix Hernandez recently signed a seven-year, $175 million contract, so giving Scherzer a similar deal makes sense. Let's say seven years, $180 million gets him back in Detroit.
James Shields to the St. Louis Cardinals
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James Shields was viewed as a notch below fellow free-agent arms Max Scherzer and Jon Lester before the offseason began, but the right-hander has been linked to a variety of different teams over the winter.
Shields' rumors have included the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, Miami Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals.
The team that makes the most sense for Shields is the Boston Red Sox, who will enter the season in desperate need of another starter. Yet, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has reported that his sources believe that the Red Sox are "highly unlikely" to sign the 33-year-old hurler.
Rosenthal's sources also believe that the Diamondbacks and Marlins have shied away from Shields due to his salary demands, and that the Giants are out after re-signing Jake Peavy.
With a very fluid market for Shields, a new team has emerged as the leader to acquire the righty: the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals have been interested in adding another starter via free agency or trade, so rumors of potential interest in Shields aren't surprising. Rosenthal predicted that Shields would wind up with the Red Birds on a recent episode of MLB Network's Hot Stove.
Why It Makes Sense
The Cardinals have a history of outstanding starting pitching, and while the club is blessed with enough arm talent to compete in 2015, question marks remain regarding the rotation.
Yes, Adam Wainwright produced another All-Star level season and Lance Lynn established himself as a reliable major league arm. But John Lackey will be a free agent after the season, Michael Wacha's elbow injury is concerning and Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales have talent but lack experience.
Another dependable starter would go a long way to a return to the NLCS in 2015.
While Shields may not be a true ace, he's one of the more durable pitchers in baseball. Since his first full year as a starter in 2007, Shields has tossed over 200 innings in every season. His 1,785.2 innings rank first in MLB during that time period.
Shields was exceptional in his two seasons with Kansas City, posting a 3.18 ERA in 68 starts. He won 27 games over that span while striking out over seven per nine innings.
While Scherzer, Cole Hamels and David Price would be sexier additions than Shields, the former can be had at a much cheaper price. Moving from Kansas City to nearby St. Louis may also intrigue the righty.
Projected Contract
Rosenthal has reported that a number of executives believe Shields will likely cash out with a contract over $100 million:
"Two execs say it is their understanding that Shields has a five-year, $110 million offer and is looking for an even higher guarantee. But others say that if Shields actually has such an offer, he should take it.
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While that sum may seem high, Shields is fortunate to find himself in a market of pitching-needy teams. He'll get his five-year contract totaling anywhere from $100-$115 million.
Colby Rasmus to the Baltimore Orioles
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One of the better position players still available is Colby Rasmus.
Rasmus is coming off an up-and-down 2014 that saw his average dip to a disappointing .225 mark. However, the outfielder still managed to hit 18 homers in an injury-shortened season.
Rasmus' power and ability to play all three outfield spots have drawn interest from the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles.
Jon Morosi at Fox Sports has reported that the Rays "have had discussions" with Rasmus and that the club "could add [an] outfield bat" if Ben Zobrist was dealt. Zobrist's recent departure could push the Rays closer to making a potential deal with Rasmus.
While Rasmus to the Rays does make sense, ESPN's Jim Bowden has noted that his source believes that the Baltimore Orioles' talks with Rasmus "are gaining steam."
Eduardo Encina at the Baltimore Sun mentioned that Orioles manager Buck Showalter met with Rasmus earlier this month.
Why It Makes Sense
The Orioles need outfield help after the departures of Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz. There was a decent outfield market at the beginning of the offseason with the likes of Yasmany Tomas, Cruz, Melky Cabrera, Alex Rios, Markakis and Rasmus testing their luck in free agency.
Baltimore lost two of those targets and missed out on other outfield fixes, leaving Rasmus as one of the few pieces left that can make an impact in 2015.
Rasmus is a career .246 hitter, and he's failed to record an average higher than .276 in his career. He's got plenty of pop though, as he's gone deep 116 times in his career, including three years with over 20 homers.
The 28-year-old has played most of his career in center field, flashing average to above-average skill with the glove. But as Mike Petriello at FanGraphs notes, Rasmus' defense took a hit in 2014. The outfielder saw a 30-run drop in UZR/150 after a respectable mark of 15.2 in 2013.
Rasmus wouldn't have to worry too much about playing center field in Baltimore with the great Adam Jones cemented at the position, but he would likely be asked to man a corner outfield spot while occasionally DH'ing.
If Rasmus can return to his 2013 defensive self in either left or right field, the O's outfield defense should be good enough to get the job done. Of course it helps that Rasmus has extensive experience in center in case Jones were to miss time with an injury.
But Baltimore's interest in Rasmus is centered around his bat, not his glove. The left-hander's power would fit in nicely in a lineup that led all of baseball in home runs in 2014, and the shallow Camden Yards would only help Rasmus' power stroke.
Projected Contract
Paul Folkemer of PressBoxOnline.com seems to believe that Rasmus is looking to sign a "one-year, make-good contract" in order to cast a wider net next year in free agency. A one-year deal ranging from $8-$12 million makes sense for both sides.
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Francisco Rodriguez to the Toronto Blue Jays
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One of the strengths of the 2014 MLB free-agent market was its loaded class of relievers. David Robertson, Andrew Miller, Luke Gregerson, Luke Hochevar, Zach Duke, Rafael Soriano and Francisco Rodriguez all entered the offseason in need of new clubs.
As we head toward spring training, most of those bullpen pieces have found homes for 2015. However, one of the best closers in the history of baseball can still be had at a reasonable cost.
Francisco Rodriguez turned back the clock in 2014, saving 44 games with a 3.04 ERA. K-Rod fanned over nine a game while stranding 93 percent of inherited baserunners.
While Rodriguez would theoretically be a fine addition to any bullpen, his ability to close ballgames gives him extra value on the market. The Detroit Tigers have been rumored with just about every available late-inning arm this offseason (and for good reason), but the Toronto Blue Jays have emerged as a serious suitor for Rodriguez.
Jon Heyman at CBS Sports has reported that Toronto is hoping to add a closer via trade, but it has K-Rod on its radar.
Why It Makes Sense
The Blue Jays competed deep into the season in 2014, but a woeful bullpen was a massive black eye on the team's roster. Toronto's relievers ranked 25th in ERA with a 4.09 mark. The disappointing unit also surrendered 50 homers and blew 18 saves a season ago.
The Jays decided against retaining the services of closer Casey Janssen, who saved 25 games last year. Although productive during his time in Toronto, Janssen was plagued by injuries in 2014. Brett Cecil, Sergio Santos, Aaron Loup and Aaron Sanchez all received opportunities to close games last season.
Rodriguez returned to a full-time closing role this year for the first time since 2011, but the right-hander has nailed down 348 saves in his career. That's good for 10th all-time in MLB history. His command has a tendency to fluctuate from time to time, but K-Rod is a proven ninth-inning commodity.
Thomas Carannante at HNGN.com believes Rodriguez is an attractive short-term option because Toronto would be able to hold on to its prospects instead of parting with them in a potential trade.
Projected Contract
Rodriguez signed a one-year deal worth $3.25 million a season ago, so the reliever is likely looking for a multiyear contract with a solid annual salary. A two-year agreement worth $5-$7 million a year would be a nice bit of business for the emerging Jays.
Ryan Vogelsong to the San Francisco Giants
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The San Francisco Giants flirted with Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields this offseason, but they have held off on pulling the trigger on a costly top-of-the-rotation arm.
The Giants instead re-signed Jake Peavy to a rotation that includes World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner, an inconsistent Tim Lincecum, the unknown Yusmeiro Petit and injury concerns in Tim Hudson and Matt Cain.
With Hudson's ankle injury likely sidelining him until April, the Giants need to add another starter for depth purposes. A trade for a veteran like Dan Haren makes sense, but the defending champs could also choose to bring back long-time hurler Ryan Vogelsong.
The 37-year-old has been a key contributor to the extensive success enjoyed in the Bay Area in recent years. Since 2011, Vogelsong has filled in admirably wherever his team has needed him the most. He's coming off a 2014 season that saw him log 184 innings and start 32 ballgames.
Vogelsong would also make sense for a team like the Atlanta Braves, but Mike Axisa at CBS Sports believes that Vogelsong's chances of returning to San Fran have increased after Hudson's injury.
Why It Makes Sense
Bumgarner is one of elite pitchers in MLB, and Peavy proved he's still a capable mid-rotation arm last season.
But the rest of the rotation is clouded by alarming concerns.
Lincecum's ERA has been closer to 5.00 than it has to 3.00 over the past three seasons, pushing the former Cy Young winner to the bullpen at times. Cain is coming off of elbow surgery, and Hudson's ankle concerns stem from his gruesome injury in 2013 with the Braves. Petit was a revelation during the Giants' championship run last year, but 2014 was the first time the 30-year-old had ever exceeded 100 innings in a season.
Vogelsong has started 110 games with the Giants, posting a very respectable 3.74 ERA in the process. He's tossed over 650 innings since 2011, providing consistent performances at the back end of the San Francisco rotation during that period.
San Francisco knows what it will get if the club chooses to bring back Vogelsong, and honestly it doesn't need much more than that. When healthy, the Giants are loaded with pitching talent. Vogelsong would act as a safety blanket in case San Fran experiences a worst-case scenario with its pitching luck.
B/R's own Zachary Rymer mentions that Vogelsong would also squeeze the most out of his value in San Francisco due to his high fly-ball rate. The cavernous AT&T Park may be the safe haven Vogelsong needs to continue to be successful in the big leagues.
Projected Contract
Nothing besides a one-year commitment makes sense for the Giants, so anywhere from $2-$5 million would give San Francisco's rotation some much-needed insurance.
Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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