Technical Breakdown of Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin

When Frank Mir stated that he thinks Forrest Griffin can beat Anderson Silva by bullying him and being aggressive, my first thought was Frank Mir must have fallen off the wagon.

That particular decision could only result in disastrous consequences.

That being said, let's be a little bit more reasonable. Let's think about what's actually going to happen technically in this fight to make an informed decision.

When I broke down the BJ Penn/Kenny Florian fight, I brought up the point that BJ doesn't really make gameplans for specifc opponents, while Florian does.

Anderson Silva and Forrest Griffin both create gameplans.

Despite what most people think, Anderson Silva's plan against Cote was to damage him early, and look for the knockout in the later rounds. A knee injury stopped the knockout from happening.

His plan against Leites was to score points from the outside, avoid Thales' dangerous BJJ game, and strike back hard when Leites is forced to fight on the feet. Leites was willing to concede defeat, rather than fight from a standing position.

The differences will be in what each fighter needs to accomplish.

Usually, Forrest Griffin can pick his shots from the outside, and pepper his opponents with a large volume of strikes. This can lead to opening up opportunities for takedowns and clinches.

Once Griffin gets a takedown, he can use his solid topgame to score more points, and possibly work for submissions.

Against Anderson Silva, very little of this is likely to work.  Forrest will likely be at a significant disadvantage on the feet, especially against a southpaw, and will not have the reach advantage that he often has at his disposal.

Furthermore, Forrest's leg kicks, the ones used to great effect against Quinton Jackson, and Rashad Evans, are unlikely to be advantageous against Anderson.

The last leg kick Forrest threw in the Octagon was caught, and countered by a big shot to the face that ultimately led to a knockout for Rashad.

Anderson already showed against James Irvin that he is capable of executing that same counter to a leg kick. While Forrest may have made some technical improvements, it is unlikely that he will be able to avoid taking shots to the face if he is consistent with his leg kicks.

Furthermore, Forrest isn't dominant enough of a wrestler and BJJ fighter for Anderson to be overly concerned about takedowns. Anderson Silva will likely be able to unload freely.

As long as the fight stays on its feet, Silva stands a much greater chance of getting the knockout.

Griffin hasn't ever really been known as a power puncher, while Anderson Silva has.

Furthermore, when Anderson Silva does get hit, it tends to only make him madder and more aggressive.

However, if Forrest does go for the takedown and survives the clinch situation, he should have an advantage from top position. Having size and reach should also allow Forrest to land some punches from the mount position.

However, Forrest is unlikely to get a lot of takedowns against Silva, and Silva may even be able to reverse Forrest's takedown attempts to get top position himself.  If he does this, Forrest will be in serious trouble.

To win this fight, Forrest Griffin will need to execute a strategy of setting up takedowns with strikes, and working effectively from top position. This is a strategy that Forrest has never really needed to employ before.

He will need to have prepared specific moves and tactics in order to pull off a victory. Moreover, there will be little room for error.

On the other side, Anderson can win this fight by staying at range, countering, and capitalizing on opportunities.  This is something that Anderson does every single time he fights.