Ranking This MLB Offseason's 15 Largest Contracts from Worst to Best
Though two of the best available players have still yet to sign, the 2014-2015 Major League Baseball offseason has already handed out easily over $1 billion in free-agent contracts.
Furthermore, here's a fun fact: The winter's 15 biggest contracts account for a whopping $975.5 million of that money. That's a lot of green for not a lot of players, so you and I both know we must discuss whether this money has been well spent.
Let's do that with a good, old-fashioned ranking, shall we?
Here are the ground rules: The order will go from worst (15) to best (1), and factoring into the rankings will be what teams have bought for their money, whether they got good deals and their motivations for opening their wallets.
If you'll follow me this way, we can get started...
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
15. Nick Markakis, OF, Atlanta Braves
1 of 15
The Contract: Four years and $44 million
Nick Markakis entered the market looking like one of the safer free agents available. His power isn't what it once was, but it rebounded nicely in 2014 while he continued to be an elite contact hitter and solid right fielder.
As such, a contract in the $40-50 million range seemed like a good bet for him. That's where he ended up, and the Braves are a smart fit for Markakis for a couple of reasons. He's the right fielder they needed to replace Jason Heyward, and he's the contact hitter their lineup has been missing.
So why is Markakis all the way down here?
Partially because of how he looks like damaged goods after his recent neck surgery, which, according to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, is something the Braves willingly walked into.
Presumably, the Braves were willing to take a chance because their main focus is clearly on being ready to win when they move into their new ballpark in 2017. But it's odd that they would take it for granted Markakis will be healthy by then. And even if he is, he'll be in his mid-30s with his prime behind him.
Of the 15 contracts we'll discuss, this is the one that looks like the best bet to crash and burn.
14. Brandon McCarthy, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
2 of 15
The Contract: Four years and $48 million
Brandon McCarthy hasn't looked like a quality starter for much of the last two years, so him getting $48 million may sound like all-out crazypants-ness.
But there's a defense here. McCarthy has superb command, and his turnaround with the Yankees (2.89 ERA in 14 starts) is worth reading into because of how he maintained a surprise velocity spike while, as FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan highlighted, making alterations to his pitching style.
But while this makes McCarthy's contract defensible, it's still worth questioning. Largely because of his age (31) and injury track record, even a projection of a three-year deal in the $30-40 million range sounded like the best-case scenario. The Dodgers going as far as four years is puzzling.
It's a good thing McCarthy looks like a solid No. 4 in their rotation in the short term. Oh, and also that money is no object for the Dodgers.
13. Ervin Santana, SP, Minnesota Twins
3 of 15
The Contract: Four years and $55 million
If you focus on how Ervin Santana's ERA rose 71 points from where it was in 2013, his 2014 season doesn't look like much of a step forward.
But it was. Santana maintained good control while pushing his strikeout rate well above the league average for the first time in years. National League competition helped, but also helping was Santana finally developing a trusty changeup. Thanks to that, he's never been a more complete pitcher.
Admittedly, the 32-year-old's contract with Minnesota is more than I figured he would get. But it's right in line with what MLB Trade Rumors projected, and it looks like a good get for a Twins team that has endured largely terrible starting pitching in recent years.
But with four straight 90-loss seasons under their belt and top prospects like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano still working their way toward the majors, the Twins don't look ready to contend just yet. By the time they are, Santana's prime is more than likely going to be history.
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12. Nelson Cruz, DH, Seattle Mariners
4 of 15
The Contract: Four years and $57 million
Nelson Cruz is coming off a year in which he posted an .859 OPS and led all of baseball with 40 home runs. For a guy like that, $57 million sounds like a ginormous bargain on the surface.
And yet the red flags stick out like so many sore thumbs. As good as Cruz's 2014 season was, it ended with him OPS'ing a modest .759 over his final 106 games. The Mariners are also taking him from an environment that caters to right-handed power and moving him to one that doesn't.
Then there's how Cruz is 34 years old and a DH to boot. A projection of three years and $40-50 million seemed fair at the outset, so him getting four years and $57 million is slightly nuts.
And yet the Mariners don't necessarily have the wrong idea. They might have made the postseason in 2014 had their cleanup spot not been a total black hole. Cruz doesn't have to repeat his 2014 production to fix that problem, and the Mariners could go far if he does.
11. Andrew Miller, LHP, New York Yankees
5 of 15
The Contract: Four years and $36 million
One way of looking at Andrew Miller's contract is with a disapproving glare in response to the fact that the Yankees gave proven closer money to a guy who's never even closed before.
A better way of looking at it is that the Yankees paid Miller like the truly dominant reliever he was in a breakout 2014 season. Miller struck out almost 15 batters per nine innings. Couple that with much-improved command, and his 2.02 ERA comes away looking like the real deal.
In light of Miller's previous track record, his control is probably due for a step back. But with mid-90s heat and one of the deadliest sliders in existence in his arsenal, he should continue to miss bats at an elite rate. He's also a rare lefty reliever who doesn't come with a platoon split.
Now, the Yankees did pay Miller a little more than he projected to get. But pairing him with Dellin Betances should result in the same kind of dominant late-inning duo the Yankees had in 2014 in Betances and David Robertson. It also opened the door for the Yankees to get a draft pick when Robertson signed elsewhere.
10. David Robertson, RHP, Chicago White Sox
6 of 15
The Contract: Four years and $46 million
To one extent, David Robertson was at his best in posting a 3.08 ERA in 2014. He missed bats more frequently than ever and ended the year with one of the best strikeout rates of his career at 13.4 per nine innings.
Robertson wasn't perfect, though. His command returned to the bad old days, and he had trouble keeping the ball in the yard. So though he had the swing-and-miss habit you want in a shutdown closer, he also had the walk and homer problems that you certainly don't want in a shutdown closer.
These things had me fearing that Robertson would come away with too heavy of a contract, a la something worth $15 million per year. As such, that the White Sox were able to get him for less than $12 million a year looks like a pleasant surprise.
And in light of what Chicago went through with its bullpen in 2014, it feels like double the victory. With a 4.38 ERA and league-high 32 losses, the White Sox had one of baseball's worst bullpens. With Robertson joining fellow signee Zach Duke, a whole lot of improvement is in the cards.
9. Yasmany Tomas, 3B/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
7 of 15
The Contract: Six years and $68.5 million
Yasmany Tomas defected from Cuba and entered the open market with two primary selling points: youth and tons of right-handed power. He's only 24 years old, and Baseball America's Ben Badler rates his raw power as a 70 on the 20-80 scale.
Tomas isn't the total package, however. He doesn't come with much speed or a steady glove, and his hit tool needs some work. So though Tomas can probably step in and give Arizona 25 homers right away, he'll need some time to become more than just a power-only player.
Fortunately, the Diamondbacks are the right team for a project like that. They play in a great park for power hitting, for one, and are likely a couple of years away from being ready to contend. That's just the kind of environment Tomas needs.
To boot, the Diamondbacks got a good deal. Tomas seemed to be a smart bet for a $100 million contract at the start of the offseason. Arizona got him for considerably less than that and could end up paying him only $22 million in four years if he decides not to opt-in for years five and six of his deal.
8. Victor Martinez, DH, Detroit Tigers
8 of 15
The Contract: Four years and $68 million
Power and contact have both become extremely hard to come by, so a hitter like Victor Martinez shouldn't exist. He was the hardest hitter to strike out in 2014 and was also a top 10 power hitter.
No wonder he hit .335 with a league-best .974 OPS. And knowing that he ended 2013 by hitting .361 with a .916 OPS in the second half, he can argue he's been baseball's best hitter for a year and a half.
However, Martinez is also a 36-year-old DH who's among the worst baserunners in MLB. Hence why he looked like a good bet for a relatively modest three-year deal in the $50 million range.
Next to that, four years and $68 million sounds like a lot, and it is the kind of deal that makes you wonder if the Tigers were bidding against themselves. In the long run, a lot of that is going to be wasted money.
But with Miguel Cabrera battered and bruised, Max Scherzer floating on the free-agent waters and Justin Verlander seemingly past his prime, the Tigers needed to do something drastic to keep their contention window open. To this end, they could have done dumber things than reach for Martinez.
7. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Boston Red Sox
9 of 15
The Contract: Five years and $95 million
With Pablo Sandoval, it's awfully easy to remember the postseason heroics first and foremost. The last two times the San Francisco Giants went to the playoffs, he hit .365 with a .989 OPS in 33 games. He was the World Series MVP in 2012 and set a new postseason hits record in 2014.
In reality, Sandoval isn't nearly as good as his postseason persona. His offensive production has been trending toward league average, which is a concern knowing that he doesn't offer any baserunning value and his defense is more in the realm of "pretty good" than "great."
And yet it's hard to say the Red Sox overpaid for Sandoval. They gave him about what he was projected to get, and he makes more sense for them than he does for most teams. His track record says he could abuse the Green Monster when batting lefty, and he could fill David Ortiz's shoes at DH down the line.
The Red Sox aren't getting a steal for their $95 million, but they've made worse deals.
6. Francisco Liriano, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
10 of 15
The Contract: Three years and $39 million
Francisco Liriano is 31 years old and is prone to both injuries and inconsistency, the latter largely thanks to his hit-or-miss command. That, indeed, sounds like a pitcher to run away from.
But the trade-off with Liriano is that when he's good, he's really good.
Liriano revived his career with a 3.02 ERA in his first year in Pittsburgh in 2013 and finished 2014 with a 2.43 ERA over his final 18 starts. And though his command comes and goes, being elite at getting ground balls and missing bats can make up for a lot.
At the start of the offseason, something like three years and $36 million sounded fair for Liriano. The Pirates only went slightly over that, and bringing him back allowed them to reunite the awesome 2013 trio of Liriano, A.J. Burnett and Gerrit Cole.
As a result, they shouldn't be done contending just yet.
5. Melky Cabrera, OF, Chicago White Sox
11 of 15
The Contract: Three years and $42 million
Melky Cabrera was an afterthought this time a year ago. He had a brutal season in 2013, hitting just .279 with a .682 OPS and three homers in his first season in Toronto. Health problems didn't help, but such a drop-off just plain looked bad after his PED suspension in 2012.
Then came 2014, in which Cabrera rebounded to hit .301 with an .809 OPS and 16 homers. You can suspect the juice if you want, but perhaps Cabrera really is that good. He's hit over .300 in three seasons and is a rare contact hitter who also has solid power.
In light of that and how Cabrera is only 30, he seemed like a smart bet for at least $50 million. The White Sox got him for cheaper, and three years is a relatively small risk.
There's also how the Cabrera signing came in the wake of Chicago's other high-profile moves, most notably the trade for Jeff Samardzija and the signing of David Robertson. While those deals put the White Sox on the map, the Cabrera deal feels like the one that officially pushed them into contender territory.
4. Hanley Ramirez, OF, Boston Red Sox
12 of 15
The Contract: Four years and $88 million
Hanley Ramirez has never been a steady defender, he has been prone to injuries, and he's coming off a 2014 season that saw his OPS drop over 200 points from where it was in 2013.
And yet, the .817 OPS Ramirez authored in 2014 is pretty solid by today's standards, and it's especially impressive for a guy playing half his games at Dodger Stadium. His numbers should benefit from the move to Fenway Park, and Boston has the right idea in switching him from shortstop to left field.
Ramirez should also upgrade a cleanup spot that was hit-or-miss in 2014. And for what it's worth, Red Sox manager John Farrell likes the idea of having Ramirez bat behind David Ortiz.
"The one thing that clearly stands out is we have balance left- and right-handed," Farrell told MLB.com. "I have always liked David in the No. 3 hole. You know he is going to come up in the first inning. I think Hanley gives David some protection behind him."
Whether the 31-year-old Ramirez can stop being injury-prone remains a question, but he's otherwise a quality fit for a Red Sox team that looks like a potential powerhouse. And at a solid price, too, as four years and $88 million isn't bad for a guy who seemed destined for a $100 million deal.
3. Russell Martin, C, Toronto Blue Jays
13 of 15
The Contract: Five years and $82 million
Russell Martin is coming off easily the best year of his career. The 2014 season saw him post an impressive .402 OBP while playing characteristically excellent defense, complete with some of the best pitch framing in the game (see Baseball Prospectus).
It's unlikely that Martin has another .400 OBP in him, but his hitting probably has a better floor now than ever before. He's always had a strong batting eye, and he'll do well if he continues to use the all-fields approach he broke out in 2014.
On the Blue Jays, Martin has the look of a missing link. He doesn't need to be the guy in a lineup loaded with power hitters, and Toronto's pitching staff will benefit from his presence behind the dish.
If there's a gripe, it's that Toronto reached a little in giving Martin five years. That's one year more than he figured to get, and it's one year too many for a catcher who will soon be 32. Plus, Martin doesn't have the kind of explosive bat that will play well at first base or DH down the line.
2. Chase Headley, 3B, New York Yankees
14 of 15
The Contract: Four years and $52 million
Pablo Sandoval got all the attention as the market's top third baseman, but there was always a strong case to be made for Chase Headley as the better of the two. Grantland's Ben Lindbergh didn't even need a full paragraph to do it:
"For now, Sandoval is useful in the field, but Headley, who’s two years older, is as good as it gets with the glove. He bounced back at the plate after a first-half slump (and, coincidentally or not, a grip change) and projects as a comfortably above-average hitter...
"
Despite the strong comparison, Headley never did figure to get even close to as much money as Sandoval. Sure enough, his four-year, $52 million deal is right around where he projected to be, and it's much less than Sandoval got (five years, $95 million).
Therefore, we could go no further and conclude that the Yankees scored one of the better deals of the winter when they brought back Headley. But factor in how it saved them from potentially having Alex Rodriguez at third base in 2015 and beyond, and it looks even better.
1. Jon Lester, SP, Chicago Cubs
15 of 15
The Contract: Six years and $155 million
Jon Lester enjoyed a career year in 2014, but his dominance has been going on for a little more than just a year. In his last 51 starts dating back to the first half of 2013, he's pitched to a 2.43 ERA.
It's no fluke, either. Grantland's Shane Ryan did a fine job of outlining how Lester's made it happen by relying on location, movement and sequencing, which are talents that should age well. Factor in his low-effort delivery, and Lester looks like a better long-term bet than most 31-year-old pitchers.
All this was apparent at the start of the winter, when Lester stood out as the most attractive player available, even though his price tag was likely to be in the $150-160 million range. That, of course, is right where the Cubs landed with his contract.
And now that Lester's aboard, the Cubs look scary. He and Jake Arrieta are a lethal rotation duo, and they'll be backed by a young offense with huge potential. Lester thus looks like a veteran centerpiece that could well preside over years of contention.
The Cubs paid a big price to acquire said centerpiece, but they won't end up regretting it.
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