Ballon D'Or 2015: Predicting Lionel Messi's Chances of Winning a 5th Award

Lionel Messi has his sights set on again winning the award as the world's best player. But the diminutive football genius will struggle to scoop yet another Ballon d'Or.

Intense speculation regarding his future at Barcelona, along with his apparently frosty relationship with current club manager Luis Enrique, might count against Messi. In fact, the overall state of things at Barca could have a major impact on Messi's chances.

Here's three predictions for the prolific superstar's chances of winning a fifth Ballon d'Or.

Messi Will Finish Ahead of Manuel Neuer in the Voting

For a rare occasion, a goalkeeper actually has a credible chance of scooping the big prize. German stopper Manuel Neuer enjoyed an incredible 2014.

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He helped his nation win the FIFA World Cup in Brazil. The 28-year-old also enjoyed another Bundesliga success with Bayern Munich.

His performances earned him the title of "The World's best Goalkeeper," a distinction awarded to Neuer by the International Football Federation of History and Statistics, per Eurosport. It's the second year running Neuer has merited this label.

B/R's Janusz Michallik believes Neuer has done all he needs to do to become the first goalkeeper since Lev Yashin in 1963 to claim the Ballon d'Or:

However, for all his fine work, Neuer ultimately won't earn anything more than third place in the voting. He'll be trailing Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.

Rightly or wrongly, FIFA often defers to attacking players with this award. Yashin is the only stopper to claim it.

The governing body's fondness for talented forwards, particularly Messi, was made clear at the 2014 World Cup. That's when Messi scooped the Golden Ball award as the tournament's best player, ahead of any member of the victorious German squad.

Many, including Argentine legend Diego Maradona, felt Messi had done little to actually merit the award. Maradona called it a "marketing plan."

Neuer may find himself the victim of similar politics in a year when both Messi and Ronaldo will arrive in Switzerland having set a host of personal records:

Turmoil at Barca Will Cost Messi

Messi will finish ahead of Neuer, but that won't be enough to earn him the award. He'll have problems at club level to thank for his near miss.

Barca are experiencing more than a little turmoil at the moment. The club lost their appeal to have a transfer ban for 2015 overturned, per AS:

It's a decision that seems set to spark a war of sorts between the club and FIFA. Barca president Josep Maria Bartomeu will fire the first salvo in the direction of the Ballon d'Or ceremony, according to Goal.com writer Stefan Coerts:

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As a result, Barca are giving world football's governing body the cold shoulder and Bartomeu, who remains convinced the decision will be overturned, says he will not attend the event in Zurich despite Lionel Messi's nomination for the top prize.

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Bartomeu's decision to stand on what he sees as principle is unlikely to be welcomed by members of the FIFA hierarchy. In fact, it will probably downright annoy them.

It also doesn't help that Messi's own status at Barca is currently clouded in controversy. He's being strongly linked with an eventual move to Premier League side Chelsea, amid reports he can't get along with manager Luis Enrique.

Tensions with the manager could be about to come to a head if recent reports are to be believed. According to Spain's TV3 show Esports Club (h/t Goal.com reporter Alec Fenn), Bartomeu has assured Messi he'll show Enrique the door if it'll make the club's star player happy.

Being seen as the root cause of a manager's dismissal is hardly the right way to enter an award ceremony. Messi's image is taking a blow at the wrong time.

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Meanwhile, Eurosport writer Andy Mitton has suggested Messi feels "isolated" since his club ditched close friend Cesc Fabregas last summer. There's just too much negative attention on Messi, right when he doesn't need it.

Messi Will Lose Out to Ronaldo

Whether Messi likes it or not, this year's award belongs to Ronaldo. He's won more trophies and scored more goals. It really is that simple.

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Ronaldo can take the credit as the talisman who inspired Real Madrid's 10th European Cup win. He also helped Los Blancos win the FIFA Club World Cup.

Throw in a Copa del Rey triumph and 2014 was Ronaldo's year, not Messi's. In fact, for every record the half-sized marvel has set, Mitton still believes 2014 was his "worse year in the last decade."

By contrast, Ronaldo can claim it as his best ever. Since the start of this season alone, he's bagged an incredible 34 goals, per ESPN FC.

It may be painful for Messi to admit, but Ronaldo has been as dominant as Messi was during his best years with Barcelona. He hasn't stopped scoring and Madrid haven't stopped claiming prizes.

Ultimately, that will be recognised by a third win for Ronaldo and disappointment for Messi.