Why Novak Djokovic Is the Clear Favorite at the 2015 Australian Open
When the first ball is struck in the blistering Melbourne heat, the 128-player field will begin clawing their way toward the final. The Australian Open is not just a test of tennis skill, but of mental endurance and physical fitness. No player is more poised to survive these tests than Novak Djokovic.
A four-time champion Down Under, Djokovic is a wizard on the hard courts in Australia. His stellar court movement, fearless approach and ability to turn defense into offense make him virtually unstoppable. The surface suits his game better than any other venue in the world.
It took a near-superhuman performance last year from Stan Wawrinka to topple Djokovic. But he's hungry to reclaim his throne and hold on to the No. 1 ranking.
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To succeed in his quest for a fifth Melbourne crown and eighth major, he'll have a number of factors working in his favor. For these reasons, Djokovic is the clear favorite to win the 2015 Australian Open.
Experience
The only man to capture the Australian Open more often than Djokovic is Roy Emerson, who mastered the tournament six times in the 1960s.
Djokovic and his four titles (2008, 2011-2013) are tied for the second-most ever with Jack Crawford, Ken Rosewall, Andre Agassi and Roger Federer. This year, the Serbian will have plenty of motivation to win another title and continue his climb toward Emerson's record.
Australia brings out the best in Djokovic. He won his first career major there in 2008 at age 21 after dethroning Federer in the semifinals and outlasting Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the final. Before that run, he had been considered a future contender, but not many people predicted he'd break through so fast.
After losing in the quarterfinals in both 2009 and 2010, Djokovic famously altered his diet and approach to training, which paid huge dividends for his fitness. When he showed up in Melbourne for the 2011 tournament, he was a new player.
His improved health and conditioning turned Djokovic into a machine on the court. No longer would he wilt in the heat or have his body break down late in matches. He turned physical fitness—a weakness—into one of his greatest strengths.
He stormed his way through the competition for the 2011 title and his second major, ending a three-year Grand Slam slump. Djokovic lost only one set all tournament (to Ivan Dodig in the second round), and brushed aside Federer in the semifinals and Andy Murray in the final.
In 2012, Djokovic played some of the best tennis of his life at the Australian Open. After easily navigating his way into yet another semifinals berth, he again faced off with Murray. That affair lasted four hours and 50 minutes, an epic slugfest which Djokovic survived in thrilling fashion.
But that match was only a prelude for what came next. Somehow, Djokovic recovered in time for the final, where he met his nemesis, Rafael Nadal. The two had squared off in the finals of Wimbledon and the U.S. Open the previous year, and Djokovic won them both. Nadal was out for revenge in Australia.
The 2012 final didn't just live up to expectations—it shattered them. Djokovic and Nadal waged brutal war that day, pushing each other to physical and mental reserves even they probably didn't know they had. The match featured so many twists and turns, but Djokovic edged out his foe for arguably the signature win of his career.
A three-peat followed in 2013 after Djokovic outlasted Wawrinka in a legendary fourth-round encounter and took care of Murray in another final.
His run in Australia finally ended last year when Wawrinka earned payback in the quarterfinals with a grueling five-set win. That match snapped Djokovic's streak of 25 straight victories at the tournament.
This year, Djokovic will travel to Melbourne with something to prove. That's a scary thought for the rest of the field. With four Australian Open titles already in his ever-expanding trophy room, Djokovic will be supremely motivated to add a fifth crown.
Current Form
Djokovic will enter the 2015 Australian Open playing some of his best tennis.
He ended 2014 on a tear, winning his third title at the Paris Masters and his third-straight World Tour Finals championship. He clinched the year-end No. 1 ranking after that sizzling fall run.
The start of the 2015 season has shown an equally dominant Djokovic.
At the Mubadala World Tennis Championship, Djokovic cruised past Wawrinka for a dominant 6-1, 6-2 win. Though he withdrew from the final in Abu Dhabi because of a virus, his defeat of Wawrinka is something he can draw from should they meet for the third-straight year in Melbourne.
In Doha this week, Djokovic destroyed Dusan Lajovic and Sergiy Stakhovsky, winning both matches by a lopsided score of 6-2, 6-1. He even won a few doubles matches with partner Filip Krajinovic, which should help further sharpen his net skills for Australia.
While he eventually lost in singles to Ivo Karlovic, that result shouldn't derail his campaign. Karlovic, the gentle giant who rains aces, put on a serving clinic and never let Djokovic get into a rhythm. It's a match Djokovic can shake off and attribute to the best-of-three set format.
Doha actually marked the first time in years he's played a tuneup before Australia. If anything, the extra experience and taste of defeat will help him as he trains this week.
Djokovic is using Doha as a positive experience, and FOX Sports' Leo Schlink quoted the Serbian as saying: “I had plenty of matches, singles and doubles, I think six in total, so I think it’s good. Obviously I wish I could go further at least in singles, but it’s the way it is. It was a good week.”
The 2015 season is just beginning, but Djokovic has already displayed the traits that carried him to so much past success in Australia: elite speed, aggressive groundstrokes and genius shotmaking only he can execute. If his current form holds up, it will be almost impossible for anyone to stop him over the course of five sets in Melbourne.
State of the Field
When Djokovic looks at the draw before the Australian Open, he'll see a field with more question marks than surefire threats.
His top rival, Nadal, is coming back from a string of injuries and looked rusty in an opening-round loss to journeyman Michael Berrer in Doha. The Spaniard has downplayed his own chances in Australia, stressing the need for patience while he gains back his form. It may take Nadal, the 2009 champion and runner-up in 2012 and 2014, a few months before he finds his groove.
Federer narrowly escaped a massive upset in Brisbane this week to John Millman, raising some concerns about his current form. The Swiss hasn't made the final in Melbourne since 2010, and he must prove he's recovered from a back injury that forced him to cede the World Tour Finals championship to Djokovic. Federer has lost their last last two meetings Down Under.
Murray, the man Djokovic has already beaten three times in Australia, is trying to bounce back from a disappointing 2014 season and prove he can still contend at Grand Slams. Should they meet deep in Australia, Djokovic's head-to-head mastery of the Scot will give him plenty of confidence.
Other challengers like Juan Martin del Potro and Marin Cilic are struggling to return from injuries, and their participation is in doubt. Those big hitters have pushed Djokovic in the past—especially Del Potro—and their current physical state all but eliminates them as serious contenders.
Djokovic will have to keep an eye out for the talented young trio of Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic and Grigor Dimitrov. Each man turned the corner in 2014 and enjoyed his first Grand Slam success. Nishikori even defeated Djokovic in a high-quality semifinal at the U.S. Open. But Djokovic still owns a combined 12-3 record against them.
Despite their new status as stars on the ATP World Tour, each player has yet to win a Grand Slam title. Give the edge to the Serbian.
The beauty of sports is the element of unpredictability. Any player or team can win on any given day. But stopping Djokovic in Australia this year may be too tough a task. Because of his experience in Melbourne, his current form and the condition of his opponents, Djokovic is well-equipped for another ceremonious fortnight at the Australian Open.
All statistics are courtesy of ATPWorldTour.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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