Updating the Hottest Questions of the 2014-15 MLB Offseason, Week 10
With the eyes of the sporting world fixated on the NFL playoffs, CFB bowl season, the NBA regular season and CBB conference play, the casual sports fan may need to brush up on the latest MLB offseason headlines.
Now that we're on the other side of the New Year, the beginning of a new season doesn't seem that far away. Pitchers and catchers report in a little over a month, while Opening Day is just 87 days away.
The offseason's Hot Stove has been abnormally warm, with a bevy of trades and free-agent acquisitions to keep baseball fans engaged during the down time. Even with such extensive movement, there are still a few dominoes left to fall before the season kicks off.
We know both Max Scherzer and James Shields need homes in 2015, but exactly how high will the tab wind up being for the top starting pitchers left on the market?
Ben Zobrist and Dan Haren have found themselves at the forefront of trade discussions this offseason. Will either player be traded before the start of the season?
Bullpen additions can often lead to postseason glory, so which teams will end up employing the best remaining late-inning arms?
The latest rumblings and grumblings on all these hot topics will be covered in the next few slides. The holiday season may have distracted you from the wheeling and dealing of a busy offseason, so be sure to refresh your memory on the winter's biggest stories.
Where Will Max Scherzer Sign, and for How Much?
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Since the beginning of free agency, Max Scherzer has been the most coveted pitching jewel on the market.
Yet as we enter January, the hard-throwing right-hander has yet to sign a contract to play in 2015.
Scherzer produced another stellar campaign a season ago, winning 18 games for the Detroit Tigers. The hurler logged the most innings of his career while also striking out an outstanding 10.29 hitters per nine innings.
The former AL Cy Young has become arguably the premier pitcher in the American League over the last three seasons. Since 2012, Scherzer is 55-15, averaging over 10 strikeouts per nine and fanning nearly 30 percent of the opposing batters he has faced. As far as pitchers go, Scherzer ranks third overall in WAR during that time.
Earlier this offseason, I wrote an article discussing why I believed Scherzer to be the safer bet between he and fellow free agent Jon Lester. Although utilizing different styles, both pitchers will start the season at the age of 30, and were widely considered the two best players on the open market. Lester signed a six-year, $155 million contract with the Chicago Cubs, causing speculation on just how much Scherzer would command once signing.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports is under the impression that Scherzer "will easily surpass" the six-year, $144 million extension he left on the table before the 2014 season. It's no secret that super-agent Scott Boras often squeezes every dollar he can out of the prospective teams he deals with. Jon Morosi of Fox Sports believes Scherzer and Boras are seeking a contract in excess of $200 million.
Obviously very few teams can break the bank to pay that sum, so Scherzer's limited in landing spots by simple process of elimination. The New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angles Angels, Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers have all been rumored as potential partners for Scherzer, but each of those teams seems hesitant to give the righty the bags of money he desires.
B/R's own Jason Catania thinks that for the Scherzer market to better materialize, James Shields may need to pledge his loyalty first:
"On one hand, if Shields comes off the board before Scherzer does, then that makes Scherzer the very last prize among free agents. That's not a bad position to be in, especially when a team or three is likely to be desperate after missing out on Shields.
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Judging from that analysis, it seems that the Scherzer sweepstakes will remain quite fluid up until he inks his signature. In the end, three teams make the most sense. The New York Yankees: The cash is there and so is the need for a front-line starter; the St. Louis Cardinals: Scherzer grew up a Cardinals fan; or back to the Tigers: There's an obvious level of familiarity on both ends.
Where Will James Shields Play in 2015?
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Although maybe not the grand prize that Max Scherzer figures to be, James Shields remains a solid consolation for a team in need of starting pitching.
The highest praise that you can lay at the feet of "Big Game James" is that you know exactly what you're going to get when he takes the ball. He may be a notch below the top tier of today's starters, but he's a bonafide No. 2 capable of performing like an ace on a given night.
Shields is a durable innings-eater. The right-hander has tossed over 200 innings in every season since 2007, and his 1,785.2 innings in that time period is the highest total in MLB. In an age where such a work rate is rare in starters, Shields' ability to stay healthy and productive presents immediate value.
Ken Rosenthal at Fox Sports has reported that Shields is expected to receive a contract of over $100 million that spans five years:
"Two execs say it is their understanding that Shields has a five-year, $100 million offer and is looking for an even higher guarantee. But others say that if Shields actually has such an offer, he should take it.
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Many teams are balking at Shields' asking price, due in large part to his age. He's 33, and although his aforementioned durability is a strength, there have got to be some cobwebs forming on his right elbow. If the rumors of Shields' intent of obtaining a five-year deal are true, that would put him at 38 by the end of his contract.
Shields has only pitched in the American League, so it makes sense for him to continue his career in the AL. In Rosenthal's article he comments that Shields and the Boston Red Sox pairing up is "highly unlikely," but a return to the AL East makes sense for both parties. Here's Boston's projected rotation if the season started today:
- Clay Buchholz
- Rick Porcello
- Wade Miley
- Justin Masterson
- Joe Kelly
Ew.
Not that those aren't decent options, but there's an abundance of question marks regarding that staff. Splurging on the workhorse Shields could be the difference in qualifying for the postseason or not.
The Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals have also been rumored as potential suitors for Shields' services, with Rosenthal recently predicting on the MLB Network the former as the ultimate landing spot for the veteran hurler.
Which Club Will Acquire the Do-It-All Services of Ben Zobrist?
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You would be hard-pressed to find a more versatile player in baseball than Ben Zobrist.
But with rumors swirling regarding the super-utility man's future, it may be time for the Rays and Zobrist to part ways.
Matt Snyder of CBS Sports believes that the split is inevitable, stating that dealing Zobrist "just makes too much sense":
"Zobrist is going to be 34 next season. It feels unlikely the Rays will re-up with him when he hits free agency. He's set to make just $7.5 million next year. He can basically play any defensive position other than catcher, and he does so well at most spots. Offensively, Zobrist's average season since he started getting regular playing time is as follows: .270/.364/.437, 35 doubles, 16 homers, 76 RBI, 86 runs, 16 steals.
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Maybe it's the relative anonymity that comes with being a Tampa Bay Ray or Zobrist's less flashy style of play, but the veteran rarely is mentioned in the same breath as some of the other elite players in the game. Yet since 2009, only Miguel Cabrera has recorded a higher WAR then Zobrist.
According to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe, Tampa Bay's recent acquisition of Asdrubal Cabrera has only intensified the whispers of a potential Zobrist departure. Cafardo lists the Giants, Nationals, Angels and Cubs as the most serious pursuers of the switch-hitter.
Out of those options, the Giants and Cubs present the most logical fits for Zobrist.
San Francisco has a history of employing versatile, high on-base position players, a role that Zobrist fits to a tee.
Elsewhere, Chicago's resurgence could see it attempt to add a reliable stick to pair with a young and upcoming lineup. Daniel Russell at D Rays Bay mentions the Cubs' assortment of prospects and substantial payroll as factors that may unite the Cubbies and Rays as trade partners.
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Which West Coast Team Will Trade for Dan Haren?
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One of the more perplexing, if not hilarious stories of the offseason has been the Dan Haren saga.
Along with Dee Gordon, the right-hander was dealt to the Miami Marlins earlier this winter. The Marlins had hoped to convince Haren to spend 2015 in Miami, but the 34-year-old's desire to play on the West Coast has trumped all other factors.
Haren isn't the front-line starter he was once upon a time, but he's still capable of providing a rotation with depth and experience. Last season with the Dodgers, he managed to win 13 games despite recording a 4.02 ERA. He's won nearly 150 games in his career and has consistently logged a high inning total.
Sure, Haren's decline in production in recent years has diminished his value. But his strong finish to 2014 provided teams with just enough incentive to kick the tires on the veteran hurler. In Haren's last 10 starts, he went 5-2 with a 2.43 ERA. As B/R's own Anthony Witrado notes, "Haren was the team's best starter down the stretch," minus that guy named Kershaw.
Obviously Haren's trade market has significantly shrunk due to his demands, with the Angels, Giants, A's, Padres and Mariners likely the only plausible destinations for the righty.
In terms of pressing needs, the Giants may be the ideal fit for Haren.
Tim Hudson's ankle, Matt Cain's elbow, Tim Lincecum's inconsistencies and Yusmeiro Petit's inexperience form a cloud of concern over the San Francisco rotation. Considering the report from Jon Morosi of Fox Sports that the Giants had already expressed interest in Haren before re-signing Jake Peavy, one would assume that the defending champs would be the frontrunner for his services.
The Padres could also look to bolster a young staff with Haren's extensive experience, especially with new general manager A.J. Preller proving he's unafraid of wheeling and dealing with multiple moves this winter.
Where Are Some Realistic Landing Spots for the Top Available Bullpen Pieces?
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Entering free agency, there were bullpen options aplenty for teams with dysfunctional late-inning units.
Although the likes of David Robertson, Andrew Miller, Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek have chosen new bedmates, there are still a few high-profile relievers still available as we close in on the 2015 season. Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano and Casey Janssen have all proven to be dependable arms out of the pen for many years now, with each in need of a new place to earn a check next year.
Rodriguez ranks 10th all-time in saves in MLB history with 348. K-Rod's production dipped slightly from 2011-2013, but he resurfaced as a bonafide big league closer in 2014. The hard-throwing righty recorded 44 saves last season, good for fifth best in the league.
Jon Heyman at CBS Sports has reported that Rodriguez has become the focal point for the Toronto Blue Jays, who are desperate to find a closer before the season.
After two impressive seasons with the Washington Nationals, longtime closer Rafael Soriano gave way to Drew Storen in 2014. But the fireballer still managed to strike out over eight batters per nine innings in a setup role. With over 200 career saves, a 2.85 ERA and experience in multiple bullpen roles, Soriano would be a great fit for any prospective team.
Those Detroit Tigers, god bless them, can't have enough relief options and may pull the trigger on Soriano. The Astros and Blue Jays would also be good fits.
There's a similar market for former Toronto closer Casey Janssen. Maybe not as prolific as the other two relief pitchers on the market, Janssen still finished three straight seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA from 2011-2013. Janssen flirted with the injury bug in 2014, but still managed to save 25 games for the Jays.
Brandon Nickel of FanSided mentions the Red Sox as a potential landing spot for the 33-year-old righty.
Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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