Early Induction Odds for the 2016 Baseball Hall of Fame Class
It's only been a day since the voting for the Hall of Fame class of 2015 was revealed, so I naturally have to tell you that it's not too soon to look forward to next year's voting.
Once again, the ballot projects to be stuffed with Cooperstown-worthy talent in 2016. The most notable first-timers will be Ken Griffey Jr. and Trevor Hoffman, who will join a collection of holdovers that includes Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines and Curt Schilling.
That seven new Hall of Famers have been elected in the last two years might suggest next year's class will be another big one. But since all the individual cases have their own ins, outs and what-have-yous, we better break things down by looking at each player's odds for induction.
Note: Stats and voting figures courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
The 100-1 Odds Crowd
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Or, if you prefer, the "Thanks for playing" crowd.
These are the guys who will be on the ballot and discussed as potential Hall of Famers but are unlikely to move the needle in the voting. For the most part, they're holdovers who simply have too far to go to reach the 75 percent vote limit to get into Cooperstown.
The exceptions are the first-timers, most of whom are probably in line to get kicked off the ballot after receiving less than five percent of the vote. That list should include Troy Glaus, Jason Kendell and Mike Hampton, among others.
One first-timer, however, should be able to at least stay on the ballot: Billy Wagner.
His 422 saves probably won't sway traditional-minded voters, but they're enough to at least get them to look. More sabermetrically minded voters will likely trumpet Wagner's place among his fellow relievers in Wins Above Replacement and ERA+.
As for the holdovers...
- Lee Smith: He still has his 478 saves, but he only got 30.2 percent of the vote in 2015 and will be up against Wagner and Trevor Hoffman in 2016.
- Edgar Martinez: He has a very strong case as one of the best hitters of his generation, but he has the designated hitter stigma and has landed below 30 percent each of the last two years.
- Alan Trammell: You can expect a push for Trammell to get elected in his final year on the ballot, but he'll have to go from 25.1 percent to 75 percent.
- Mike Mussina: He'd have my vote, but his support hasn't yet climbed over 25 percent.
- Jeff Kent: He's hit more home runs than any other second baseman but hasn't yet cracked 20 percent.
- Fred McGriff: That he's been below 15 percent the last two years reflects how his Hall of Fame case takes some convincing.
- Larry Walker: He was a terrific hitter in his time, but him also finishing below 15 percent the last two years suggests the Coors Field and playing-time factors are problems for voters.
- Gary Sheffield: He has 509 career homers, but he only got 11.7 percent in his first year.
- Mark McGwire: That he only got 10 percent in his ninth year on the ballot might suggest voters are holding his history with PEDs against him.
- Sammy Sosa: Substitute 6.6 percent in his third year, and you have the same story as McGwire.
- Nomar Garciaparra: Really, the only question here is if he can even stay on the ballot after getting only 5.5 percent in his first year.
Now then—on to the guys who are worth discussing in greater depth.
Barry Bonds
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Year on Ballot: 4th
2015 Percentage: 36.8
Ask Barry Bonds, and he'll tell you he's confident about one day getting into the Hall of Fame. That's what he told Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com, anyway:
"I love Major League Baseball. I always have and I loved playing the game. I don't have any doubts that I'll get there in time. I'm bothered about it, but I don't sit here going, 'I'm not going to make it.' I don't see how it stays the way it's going. In my mind, in my head, I'm a lot more positive about it than I am negative. I think eventually they'll do the right thing.
"
Obviously, 36.8 percent of the voters agree that electing Bonds is the right thing to do. These voters have plenty to point to, including Bonds' record 762 home runs, his career 1.051 OPS, his top-five career WAR and his utter domination of baseball between 2001 and 2004.
But there's a clear reason why support for Bonds has yet to climb out of the mid-30s since he's been on the ballot: For most voters, it's the punishment he deserves for his shady late-career activities and how he benefited from them. Until they come around, support for Bonds is going to remain static.
Maybe Bonds will get into the Hall of Fame one day. But the odds of it being in 2016 are very, very slim.
2016 Induction Odds: 99-1
Roger Clemens
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Year on Ballot: 4th
2015 Percentage: 37.5
If all anyone cared about was the numbers, it would be an utter disgrace that the voters elected a record three pitchers to the Hall of Fame in 2015 without including arguably the greatest pitcher ever.
That's Roger Clemens. He won seven Cy Young Awards across a 24-year career and ranks among the greatest pitchers ever in wins, strikeouts, ERA+ and WAR. On that note, FanGraphs WAR has him as the best pitcher ever. And there have been a lot of good ones, by the way.
But you know what the argument against Clemens' inclusion is. He may not draw as many disapproving stares as Bonds, but his own ties to PEDs are a problem for a majority of the voters. Like with Bonds, they'll need to come around for Clemens' support to escape its stasis.
It's a silver lining for Clemens that he's been getting more support than Bonds, but him making the leap to 75 percent in one year is about as unlikely.
2016 Induction Odds: 98-1
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Jim Edmonds
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Year on Ballot: 1st
Remember Jim Edmonds?
Actually, here's a better question: Remember how good he was?
Edmonds had a heck of a prime between 1995 and 2005, hitting .293 with a .942 OPS and a 141 OPS+ while averaging 30 homers a season. He also won eight Gold Gloves, and he has plenty of highlight-reel catches that say he deserved every one of them.
Overall, Jay Jaffe's JAWS system, which judges candidates based on their peak and career production, puts Edmonds in the same company as Andre Dawson, Richie Ashburn and (the original) Billy Hamilton. It can be argued Edmonds deserves an additional push based on his strong .874 postseason OPS.
But while Edmonds could end up getting a decent amount of support, it's certainly hard to imagine him being a first-ballot guy. No matter which way you look at his creds, he's not a no-doubt candidate.
That Edmonds has a strong case that isn't weighed down by ties to PEDs means he could get into Cooperstown in time. But he's very unlikely to get in on his first try.
2016 Induction Odds: 95-1
Curt Schilling
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Year on Ballot: 4th
2015 Percentage: 39.2
Curt Schilling barely appeared on the radar in his first year on the ballot in 2014, garnering only 29.2 percent of the vote to finish behind 11 other players.
Now, however, Schilling is very much on the radar. His support grew from 29.2 percent to 39.2 percent, which is a pretty big jump as far as these things go.
It seems the voters are coming around to his case for the Hall of Fame, which is a lot stronger than his 216 career wins make it look. WAR rates Schilling as a top-25 pitcher, and he also has his excellent postseason track record.
Looking ahead to 2016, it is indeed unlikely that Schilling will make the jump from 39.2 percent to 75 percent. But he could come closer than you might think. He just gained some serious momentum, and he won't be up against Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez or John Smoltz in 2016.
He's a long shot to be elected, but one worth keeping an eye on.
2016 Induction Odds: 50-1
Tim Raines
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Year on Ballot: 9th
2015 Percentage: 55.0
Due to a recent rule change, next year could be Tim Raines' penultimate year on the Hall of Fame ballot. That's unless he's elected, of course, and you can expect a strong push for that to happen.
Raines has already benefited from campaigns (also threats) that have highlighted him as one of the great left fielders and leadoff men of all time. Both ideas have a lot of merit, as WAR rates him as a top-10 left fielder, and only Raines and Rickey Henderson are in the .385-OBP, 150-homer, 800-steal club.
But in the voting, Raines has gone from rising fast to more like chugging along. He only got as high as 55.0 percent this year and has been stuck in the 45-55 range since 2012. That the ballots have been so crowded hasn't helped, but that also reflects how many voters are still on the fence with Raines.
Raines should get a boost in what will be a relatively light ballot in 2016. But it's hard to see a 20 percent boost.
2016 Induction Odds: 20-1
Jeff Bagwell
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Year on Ballot: 6th
2015 Percentage: 55.7
Jeff Bagwell seemed to be on the rise when he got 59.6 percent of the vote in his third year in 2013. But then he dropped to 54.3 percent in 2014 and failed to fully recover with 55.7 percent this year.
Based on Bagwell's statistics, he deserves better. His career featured an outstanding 10-year prime and, overall, was good enough to put him among the best first basemen ever by WAR. As a guy who could hit, run and field, it's easy to argue for him as the most well-rounded player to ever play the position.
Looking forward, it should help Bagwell's cause that the ballot will be clearing up a bit in 2016. But that's not going to do anything to erase the PED suspicions many voters have about him, so him making the jump from 55.7 percent to 75.0 percent is highly unlikely.
Bagwell is pretty much in the same boat as Raines. They both have plenty of supporters, but it'll be tough for either of their crowds to grow big enough.
2016 Induction Odds: 20-1
Trevor Hoffman
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Year on Ballot: 1st
There aren't many relievers in the Hall of Fame, and only Dennis Eckersley made it in on his first try. That wouldn't seem to bode well for Trevor Hoffman.
But you can rest assured he's going to get a lot of looks as a potential first-ballot Hall of Famer anyway.
Hoffman's main claim to fame is his collection of 601 career saves. That's second behind only Mariano Rivera and 123 more than the next guy on the list (Lee Smith). Also, his career 2.87 ERA and 141 ERA+ look plenty sharp, and WAR places him among the top seven relievers of all time.
But though these things make Hoffman a good bet to get in next year, I hesitate to call him a lock.
ESPN.com's Tim Kurkjian noted that Hoffman's 1,089.1 career innings would be second-fewest to only Bruce Sutter among Hall of Fame pitchers, and Hoffman doesn't have much of a postseason track record to back up his case. Other voters could conclude that if Smith couldn't get in as the all-time saves leader in his first year in 2003, why should Hoffman be a first-timer as the runner-up in all-time saves?
Hoffman's odds of getting in are pretty good. But not quite ironclad.
2016 Induction Odds: 10-1
Mike Piazza
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Year on Ballot: 4th
2015 Percentage: 69.9
There was a point before the 2015 class was announced when Mike Piazza looked like he had a shot to get in. Based on publicly available ballots, the Ballot Collecting Gizmo at BaseballThinkFactory.org had him over the 75 percent threshold.
So much for that, as Piazza ended up falling just short with 69.9 percent. But if there's a bright side, it's that his time appears to be on the horizon.
Piazza's Hall of Fame case is a battle between those who support him as one of the best catchers ever—he's certainly the best offensive catcher ever—and those who suspect PED usage. And though the battle hasn't been won yet, it's clear which side is winning.
Piazza started out at 57.8 percent in 2013, then rose to 62.2 percent last year before getting to 69.9 percent this year. In light of that, a 5.1 percent increase in 2016 is nothing he can't handle.
2016 Induction Odds: 2-1
Ken Griffey Jr.
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Year on Ballot: 1st
Ken Griffey Jr. is going to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. There's really no need to sell anyone on the idea.
But since we're here...
The big number on Griffey's record is his 630 career home runs, which rank sixth all time. He also owns a .907 OPS, a 136 OPS+ and a top-five WAR among center fielders. There's no debating his greatness. It really is pretty great.
However, it's Griffey's prime that stands out. He was a true spectacle in the 1990s, hitting .302 with a .965 OPS, 152 OPS+ and 382 home runs while winning a Gold Glove every year for his wizardry in center field. And by all accounts, he did it without any chemical help.
Which, as Hardball Talk's Craig Calcaterra correctly noted, certainly helps his cause:
"While the stats may have favored Barry Bonds most years, Griffey was, for a good time in the 90s, considered the best player in the game by the public at large. And subsequent developments (i.e. Barry Bonds turning PED-heel) turned Griffey into an Avatar for the Clean.
"
It was obvious when Griffey retired that he was going to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. It still is now.
2016 Induction Odds: 100-99
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