
NFL Draft 2015: Latest Expert Mock Drafts and Updated Selection Order
As the NFL postseason gets closer to ending, the buzz that surrounds the 2015 draft will only grow. Experts are already weighing in on how the first round could play out on April 30, as evaluating talent is an ongoing process even for teams occupying the playoffs.
An intriguing situation will present itself towards the top of the order. Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota won the Heisman Trophy and led the Ducks to a 59-20 triumph in the Rose Bowl over counterpart Jameis Winston and Florida State.
Mariota and Winston figure to be in the running to be the No. 1 overall pick. However, NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah relayed some inside information on Monday that should discourage some fanbases:
Swinging and missing on a potential franchise quarterback can set a franchise back for years. There is a lot of depth in this 2015 class, so it would be unfortunate to miss out on another blue-chip player simply due to need and greed.
Below is an overview of how several notable expert analysts currently see the first round unfolding, followed by a breakdown of certain facets of the mock scenarios.
Note: Updated draft order is from CBSSports.com's Rob Rang. Selections in other mocks remained with the same corresponding teams but were moved accordingly.
| 1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon | Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon | Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon | Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon | Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon |
| 2. Tennessee Titans | Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska | Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State | Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State | Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State | Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State |
| 3. Jacksonville Jaguars | Leonard Williams, DT, USC | Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska | Leonard Williams, DT, USC | Leonard Williams, DT, USC | Leonard Williams, DT, USC |
| 4. Oakland Raiders | Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama | Leonard Williams, DT, USC | Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska | Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska | Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska |
| 5. Washington Redskins | Landon Collins, SS, Alabama | Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa | Shane Ray, DE, Missouri | Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford | Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa |
| 6. New York Jets | Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State | Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama | Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama | Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama | Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama |
| 7. Chicago Bears | Shane Ray, DE, Missouri | Alvin Dupree, DE, Kentucky | Landon Collins, SS, Alabama | Dante Fowler Jr., DE, Florida | Landon Collins, SS, Alabama |
| 8. Atlanta Falcons | Alvin Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky | Shane Ray, DE, Missouri | Dante Fowler Jr., DE, Florida | Shane Ray, DE, Missouri | Shane Ray, DE, Missouri |
| 9. New York Giants | Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington | Landon Collins, SS, Alabama | Vic Beasley, DE, Clemson | Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson | Dante Fowler Jr., OLB, Florida |
| 10. St. Louis Rams | Benardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi State | La'el Collins, OL, LSU | Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (Florida) | Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa | La'el Collins, OL, LSU |
| 11. Minnesota Vikings | Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame | Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame | Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M | Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State | Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M |
| 12. Cleveland Browns | DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville | Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford | Danny Shelton, DT, Washington | Danny Shelton, DT, Washington | DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville |
| 13. New Orleans Saints | Dante Fowler Jr., OLB, Florida | Dante Fowler Jr., OLB, Florida | T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh | Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M | Alvin Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky |
| 14. Miami Dolphins | Malcom Brown, DT, Texas | Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington | Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington | La'el Collins, OL, LSU | Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington |
| 15. San Francisco 49ers | Kevin White, WR, West Virginia | Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma | Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan | Kevin White, WR, West Virginia | Kevin White, WR, West Virginia |
| 16. Houston Texans | Marcus Peters, CB, Washington | Danny Shelton, DT, Washington | DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville | Landon Collins, SS, Alabama | Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan |
| 17. San Diego Chargers | Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa | Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M | Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State | Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia | Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (Florida) |
| 18. Kansas City Chiefs | Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan | DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville | Kevin White, WR, West Virginia | DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville | Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State |
| 19. Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo) | Danny Shelton, DT, Washington | Kevin White, WR, West Virginia | Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State | Benardrick McKinney, ILB, Mississippi State | Danny Shelton, DT, Washington |
| 20. Philadelphia Eagles | Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State | Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA | Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State | Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington | Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State |
| 21. Cincinnati Bengals | Gerod Holliman, FS, Louisville | Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (Florida) | Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford | Shilique Calhoun, DE, Michigan State | Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford |
| 22. Pittsburgh Steelers | Alex Carter, CB, Stanford | Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State | Malcom Brown, DT, Texas | P.J. Williams, CB, Florida State | Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State |
| 23. Detroit Lions | Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State | Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State | Marcus Peters, CB, Washington | Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State | Malcom Brown, DT, Texas |
| 24. Arizona Cardinals | Eli Harold, OLB, Virginia | Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson | Alvin Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky | Alvin Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky | Shilique Calhoun, DE, Michigan State |
| 25. Carolina Panthers | La'el Collins, OL, LSU | T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh | Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa | Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (Florida) | T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh |
| 26. Baltimore Ravens | Jalen Collins, CB, LSU | Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State | Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin | Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin | Vic Beasley, DE, Clemson |
| 27. Indianapolis Colts | Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson | Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin | La'el Collins, OL, LSU | Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State | Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame |
| 28. Dallas Cowboys | Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M | Danielle Hunter, DE, LSU | Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest | Marcus Peters, CB, Washington | Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest |
| 29. Green Bay Packers | Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma | Malcom Brown, DT, Texas | Benardrick McKinney, ILB, Mississippi State | Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon | Benardrick McKinney, ILB, Mississippi State |
| 30. Denver Broncos | Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (Florida) | Marcus Peters, CB, Washington | Denzel Perryman, ILB, Miami (Florida) | Cameron Erving, OL, Florida State | Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin |
| 31. Seattle Seahawks | Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia | Ty Sambrailo, OT, Colorado State | Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia | Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma | Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn |
| 32. New England Patriots | Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State | Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan | A.J. Cann, G, South Carolina | Malcom Brown, DT, Texas | Marcus Peters, CB, Washington |
Expert Mock Draft Analysis
Consensus: Mariota over Winston
Across five mock drafts, it appears as though Mariota is the clear-cut top prospect that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will choose to start the first round off.
Mariota appears to be the safer alternative to Winston in terms of his reputation off the field, but what makes it such a fascinating dilemma is Winston's experience in a pro-style offense. That could mean Winston has a smoother transition to the NFL and is more ready to start than Mariota as a rookie.
Although Bleacher Report's Matt Miller is preaching to the proverbial choir in having Mariota as his top-rated player, he has his reservations:
In terms of upside, raw talent and explosiveness, though, Mariota has Winston beat.
A lot of credit should go to Mariota's outstanding ball security as well, which ESPN Stats & Info highlights:
The quarterback position is the most important of all, and Winston's tendency to give the ball away to the tune of 17 interceptions this season doesn't bode well for the pros. Mariota's unique improvisational ability can bide receivers time to get open, too.
As long as Mariota can become a bit more of a polished passer from the pocket, learn to make full-field reads on a regular basis and deliver the ball accurately down the field, his ceiling is limitless.
Tampa Bay already has two stupendous weapons on the outside in receivers Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. With a QB like Mariota who has the elusiveness to extend the play and the arm to get the ball deep to those big targets, the Bucs could be in for a swift 2015 turnaround.
Greatest Depth: Offensive Tackle and Pass-Rusher
One trend that stands out across the mocks is the amount of offensive tackles and pass-rushers available and seem destined to make an immediate impact.
Supremely athletic nose tackles like Washington's Danny Shelton and Florida State's Eddie Goldman are impressive, but the real depth comes from the edge. Plenty of differences are evident when it comes to where these pass-rushers rank.
What is clear is that USC's Leonard Williams and Nebraska star Randy Gregory are the cream of the crop, with Williams having the slight inside track in being chosen ahead of Gregory in three of five mocks.
Williams is the best of all worlds—he's a defensive tackle who's capable of lining up at the end, and he racked up seven sacks in 2014 (h/t CFBStats.com). The Trojans standout is a nightmare to block and deserves the hype he claims.
Missouri star Shane Ray is a consensus top-10 choice, and Florida's Dante Fowler Jr. is in the top 10 in the majority of mock drafts. Any team in need at that spot can't really go wrong with either from that duo.
Fox Sports South's Knox Bardeen has the Atlanta Falcons pulling the trigger on Ray, yet advocates for a number of others who'd be in similar roles:
The NFL is a pass-happy league, so someone has to stave off all these supreme athletes trying to get to the QB. That's why these mocks are so tackle-heavy near the top.
Many of the pass-rushers are versatile in terms of which position they'll play in the pros. Notice the differing positions these draft experts list certain prospects as. Several top-tier offensive tackles have experience at multiple spots in the trenches.
Those players include Iowa's Brandon Scherff, La'el Collins from LSU and Cedric Ogbuehi. The latter's stock is polarizing, but he hails from a Texas A&M program that's produced first-round picks in Luke Joeckel and Jake Matthews in recent years.
Breaking Down First-Round Surprises
With the emphasis on quarterbacks again surfacing here, UCLA's Brett Hundley isn't in the first-round discussion for most analysts. Nevertheless, CBSSports.com's Rob Rang has Hundley going 20th overall to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Rang notes how the lack of viable alternatives at the QB spot could contribute to Hundley going earlier than anticipated:
In terms of the rest of the signal-callers, only Miller has Winston falling outside the top two, instead having him selected by the New York Jets with the sixth pick.
Perhaps it isn't a huge shock, but Miller's choice to put Stanford cornerback Alex Carter in the first round is a compelling one. Carter's father, Tom, was chosen by Washington in the opening round of the 1993 draft (h/t Pro-Football-Reference.com).
Both Miller and Rang have given Carter rave reviews:
Scout.com's Jamie Newberg is really high on Stanford offensive tackle Andrus Peat, mocking him in the top five to Washington. Here is his justification for the choice:
"Assuming RG3 is still the franchise quarterback for the Redskins then you have to keep him upright and healthy. That means building up the offensive front. Washington could decide among all the offensive line prospects. Here I go with the guy I believe fits the best - Andrus Peat from Stanford. This is a very big and athletic tackle that just needs some refinement. Much will depend on who's making the calls in D.C. Will it be this regime or another new one for the Redskins?
"
Washington is indeed in a state of disarray. It has many needs. Based on how the other mocks unfold, with Peat only going to as high as No. 12 for Rang and not even in Miller's first round, perhaps Peat is a reach.
David Lombardi of ESPN.com covers the Pac-12, and he points to Peat's accolade as the conference's best offensive lineman as proof of his capabilities:
ESPN expert Todd McShay (subscription required) has Scherff going late to Carolina, though it's worth noting that the Panthers were tabbed to choose Scherff at eighth overall before they won the NFC South.
McShay lists inside linebacker Denzel Perryman as his choice for the Denver Broncos at the 30th slot. The Miami Hurricanes defensive field general is a hard hitter and may be an overlooked gem who could be had at ideal value.
Another prospect in the late-Day 1 range is Auburn receiver Sammie Coates, whom Bardeen has the Seattle Seahawks snagging at No. 32.
Coates has a considerable transition to make from the Tigers' run-heavy offense. However, Seattle could use another weapon on the outside, and Coates has blazing speed, strong hands and great ball skills to be both a vertical and a red-zone threat if he can master the playbook quickly enough.
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