Alabama Football: Who Should and Shouldn't Declare Early for NFL Draft

The downside of bringing in No. 1 recruiting classes year after year is the annual draft exodus that occurs for Alabama’s top junior players.

That will be in full effect once again this year, with the January 15 NFL draft decision date looming.

Last year, it was Cyrus Kouandjio, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Jeoffrey Pagan and Adrian Hubbard. Kouandjio, Clinton-Dix and Hubbard were all expected to declare early. Pagan was somewhat of a surprise.

So which Alabama players should declare this year? Should and will are two different questions here. And whether a player should or shouldn’t go depends a lot on their individual circumstance.

Nick Saban spent much of last offseason preaching about the dangers of so many juniors wanting to go pro early. Still, he typically encourages players with a first-round grade to declare.

That number slips a little bit for running backs. Eddie Lacy, for example, declared as a redshirt junior, was drafted in the second round and is off to a fine start to his NFL career. The shelf life of running backs is such that Saban is OK with backs—especially if they’ve gotten their degree, like Lacy—to go ahead and start that ticking clock.

And Hubbard wasn’t expected to be a slam-dunk NFL player. But he had already come back for a redshirt junior year to get his degree and had hit his ceiling as a player, with talent coming back around him. It made sense. Sometimes, a player also has personal or family needs that make him want to get to a paycheck—any paycheck—a year early.

“I try to encourage our guys who aren’t going to be top draft picks to stay in school,” Saban said two weeks ago. “Last year we didn’t have success in convincing everyone about that, and I don’t know if we’ll be able to do it this year or not.”

According to DC Reeves of The Tuscaloosa News, Cyrus Jones and D.J. Pettway have already said they’ll be back for another year. So which other top draft-eligible players should turn pro this year?

Let’s take a look.

Amari Cooper

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Amari Cooper is about as close to a sure thing as you can get in this situation.

Alabama’s electric wide receiver broke just about every school receiving record in 2014, was named a unanimous All-American and capped off his junior season with a trip to New York as a Heisman Trophy finalist. Even coming into this season, many expected Cooper’s junior to be his last.

Even Cooper himself, two years ago heading into his sophomore season, said “I have two more years here.”

With the NFL having evolved into a wide open, passing league, Cooper will be coveted by several teams looking to bolster their offensive production. Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller has Cooper as one of two Alabama players in his first-round mock draft.

The choice here is pretty straightforward: Turn pro early.

Reggie Ragland

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Alabama’s junior middle linebacker stepped up to fill a hole in the middle of the Crimson Tide defense this season and excelled.

In his first year as a starter, Reggie Ragland, a true junior, finished second on the team with 93 tackles, including 10.5 for a loss. He quickly became a key cog in Alabama’s defense.

Ragland wasn’t expected to turn pro even after the season he had. But he told NFL.com’s Chase Goodbread that he submitted a draft evaluation. NFL teams now only give players a grade of first, second or recommendation to stay in school.

“I feel like I will (be back), but I have to pray about it and see what my family wants,” Ragland said before the Sugar Bowl, per Goodbread. “At the end of the day, I'll make the best decision for me and my family," Ragland said. "I put in for feedback to see what it would be, and I think I got a nice little result, but I can't worry about that right now. I've got to stay focused on this game the next couple days."

Ragland would benefit from another year as a starter to raise his stock and get his degree. He could be one of the best defensive players in the country in 2015.

The choice: Stay in school.

T.J. Yeldon

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T.J. Yeldon’s decision might be a little bit tougher than it appears on the surface.

He has accomplished a lot in three years at Alabama, just missing out on his third straight 1,000-yard season. Yeldon has put his name among a select list of top running backs to come through Alabama.

After three productive years at Alabama, he would seem to be a candidate to come right out and get started on his NFL career without an extra year of tread on his very thin running back tires.

Yeldon, though, faces a deep running back pool this year that could mean an even later draft spot than top running backs have fallen to in recent years.

Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller ranked Yeldon as the fifth-best running back on his latest big board in late November, behind Todd Gurley, Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson and Melvin Gordon. Ameer Abdullah was also close behind Yeldon three spots back.

Still, Yeldon figures to be a good pro prospect. One scout told NFL.com’s Chase Goodbread that Yeldon could be better than Eddie Lacy.

“Different type than (Eddie) Lacy, but he could be (better)," the scout told Goodbread. "He runs hard like Eddie. He has more speed than Eddie."

All things considered, Yeldon should still take the smart path for modern running backs: Turn pro early.

Jarran Reed

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Alabama’s JUCO transfer defensive lineman made his presence known right away.

In his first year in Tuscaloosa, Jarran Reed led all defensive linemen with 54 tackles, 6.5 of which came for a loss, playing all along the front of Alabama’s defense.

Against LSU, Reed led all defenders with 15 tackles in an impressive performance. Could Reed leave Alabama as a one-and-done and go straight to the NFL?

He’s at least thinking about it.

"I know I'm going to make the right decision for me, but right now I'm focused on this game," Reed told NFL.com’s Chase Goodbread before the Sugar Bowl. "It's crazy to even think about it, where I came from out of junior college where everybody is chasing that dream. I still don't even really know how I've gotten to this point."

Right now, Reed is largely considered a fringe prospect. Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller didn’t have Reed anywhere on his latest big board, which ranks the top 10 players at each position.

SB Nation’s Dan Kadar recently ranked Reed as his No. 13 defensive lineman.

Reed rooms with fellow JUCO transfer defensive lineman D.J. Pettway, who already said he will be back for one more year. The two could be a nasty duo that, paired with rising juniors Jonathan Allen and A’Shawn Robinson, would make for a nasty front four next season. Reed also does not have his degree yet.

Barring any major changes in his draft evaluation, Reed should take the safe route: Stay in school.

Landon Collins

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Landon Collins, like Amari Cooper, is the other slam dunk among Alabama’s juniors.

In his first year as a full-time starter at strong safety, Collins was a unanimous All-American, leading the team in tackles with 102. He snagged three interceptions, including one late against Arkansas to seal a close, ugly win.

He is everything you look for in a physical safety. He plays fast, he plays near the line, he excels in pass coverage.

Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller has Collins going No. 5 overall to Washington in his latest mock draft. Miller also ranked Collins his No. 9 overall prospect on his latest big board.

You can usually say this about two or three Alabama juniors per year: Go get paid, son. Turn pro early.

Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.