New Year's Day Bowl Games: Picks Against the Spread

There are five big New Year’s Day bowl games and none bigger than the two semifinal games between Oregon vs. Florida State and Alabama vs. Ohio State. The winners of these inaugural playoff games will face each other in the BCS title game on Jan. 12.

The other three bowl games on the day are big ones in their own right, and each features a couple of Top 25 teams. 

Without further ado, let's go bowling! 

Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes

Betting Odds: Alabama -9; Over/Under: 58.5

Both schools are coming off wins in their conference title games, and the Buckeyes have a ton of momentum after beating Wisconsin, 59-0. However, the Crimson Tide are stacked on both sides of the ball. Alabama crushed Missouri in the SEC title game and has the nation's third-ranked defense.

The Tide has not been a great betting team this season but has covered the spread in four of their last five bowl games.

Trends: Alabama is 9-3 against the spread in its last 12 neutral site games, and Ohio State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games facing a team with a winning record.

Pick Against the Spread: Alabama 

Rose Bowl: No. 3 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 2 Florida State Seminoles

Betting Odds: Oregon -10; Over/Under 71.5

FSU ran the table this season winning all of its games, yet it is no surprise the 'Noles are a big betting underdog in this game. In their last five games, they did not win one by more than five points, and three of those games came facing unranked teams. On the other side of the coin, Oregon won its last eight games of the regular season, and every single one was a blowout.

This game features this season’s Heisman winner in Oregon QB Marcus Mariota and last season's winner in FSU QB Jameis Winston. The Ducks have the nation’s third-highest scoring offense and will face a Seminole defense that gave up over 450 yards in their ACC title game win over Georgia Tech.

Pick Against the Spread: Oregon

Cotton Bowl: No. 8 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 5 Baylor Bears

Betting Odds: Baylor -2.5; Over/Under 71.5

Baylor is the betting favorite in this game and the highest-scoring team in the nation, to boot. The Bears will be playing at a neutral site, but they still have home field with the game being held in Arlington, Texas.

Michigan State had a solid season, but in its only two games facing Top 10 teams, they lost badly in both, giving up at least 46 points in each. The losses came against teams with dynamic offenses in Oregon and Ohio State, and Baylor has that as well.

Trends: Michigan State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games, and Baylor is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games facing a team with a winning record.

Pick Against the Spread: Baylor 

Citrus Bowl: No. 16 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 25 Minnesota Golden Gophers

Betting Odds: Missouri -4.5; Over/Under 47.5

Missouri lost badly in the SEC title game to Alabama, but the Tigers still had a solid season winning the SEC East Division. Minnesota was a solid betting team on the season, going 8-4 ATS, but the Gophers are a one-dimensional team that has a good rushing offense but not good on the passing side.

On the other hand, Mizzou has a balanced offense and won six straight before losing to Alabama. Missouri was 2-2 facing Top 25 teams, and Minnesota was only 1-2, and the one win came against a Nebraska team that ended the season out of the Top 25. 

Pick Against the Spread: Missouri 

Outback Bowl: No. 19 Auburn Tigers vs. No 18 Wisconsin Badgers

Betting Odds: Auburn -7; Over/Under 63.5

Auburn lost three of its last four games of the season but is still the favorite facing a Wisconsin team that lost, 59-0, to Ohio State in its last contest. Running back Cameron Artis-Payne and QB Nick Marshall lead the Tigers' rushing offense, and they face a Badgers run defense that gave up 301 rushing yards in the loss to the Buckeyes.

Wisconsin has to rely on running back Melvin Gordon on offense, as the Badgers don’t have a good passing game. However, he struggled his last time on the field, and the defense, obviously, did as well.

Pick Against the Spread: Auburn

Lines are courtesy of Sports Information Traders.