Bold Predictions for College Football Playoff
Following a full season of speculation, projections, rankings and angst, the College Football Playoff is finally here and ready to roll. On Thursday, the inaugural playoff semifinals get rolling on a New Year’s Day to remember.
First, the Rose Bowl will pit No. 2 seed Oregon against No. 3 Florida State in a matchup between the last two Heisman Trophy winners. Then, we'll see a much-anticipated Sugar Bowl showdown featuring top-seeded Alabama and No. 4 Ohio State, a pair of national powers who don’t cross paths very often.
In 11 days, the winners will meet up in North Texas for the highly anticipated College Football Playoff National Championship, with all of the pomp, circumstance and hype that playing in AT&T Stadium, aka Jerry World, affords. It’ll be a fascinating journey through college football’s upper echelon.
What will happen? Who will emerge as standouts, and which team will climb onto the podium as the national champion? We’ll find out soon enough, but until then, here are some bold predictions for the first College Football Playoff.
Jameis Winston Will Thrive Against Oregon's Secondary
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It’s no secret that Jameis Winston hasn’t looked like the same quarterback this season. Florida State’s controversial star rolled up incredible stats as a freshman (4,057 yards, 40 touchdowns, 10 interceptions), but his numbers are down across the board this season. Entering the Rose Bowl, he’s thrown for 3,559 yards with 24 touchdowns against 17 interceptions and his quarterback rating stands at 147.0 compared with 184.8 in 2013.
That said, Winston was good when he needed to be, leading a trio of road comebacks from double-digit deficits and playing a key role in Florida State’s seven wins by six points or fewer.
In the Rose Bowl, he gets a tasty matchup against Oregon's secondary. The Ducks enter allowing 259.5 passing yards per game, No. 105 nationally. And they’ll play without star corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in a recent practice.
Minus Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon must figure out how to contain a passing game led by senior wideout Rashad Greene (93 receptions, 1,306 yards and seven scores) and senior tight end Nick O’Leary (47 receptions, 614 yards and six touchdowns).
Expect Winston to repeatedly challenge Oregon’s corners deep and succeed more often than not.
Mario Edwards Jr. Will Harass Marcus Mariota
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If you want to beat Oregon, here’s a tip: Pressure Marcus Mariota. The Heisman Trophy winner is the most indispensable piece of the Ducks’ magical season. He has thrown for 3,783 yards with 38 touchdowns against two interceptions and added 669 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns.
Get to Mariota, and you stand a much better chance of slowing down the Ducks’ prolific offense, which averages 46.3 points per game, No. 3 nationally. Senior left tackle Jake Fisher has been a key part of that plan. Fisher missed the Washington State and Arizona games with a sprained knee ligament, and Oregon’s offense suffered. Mariota was sacked 12 times, including five in the Ducks’ only loss, at home vs. Arizona.
Fisher will face off with FSU defensive end Mario Edwards Jr., who is one of the most disruptive ends in the ACC. Edwards has 44 tackles, 11 tackles for loss and three sacks and possesses excellent speed and power. Expect Edwards to win his share of battles against Fisher. With Florida State’s weak linebacker corps, it’s a key piece of the defensive game plan.
Blake Sims and Amari Cooper Will Run Roughshod on Ohio State's Secondary
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If you look at the statistics, Ohio State’s secondary has been improved this season. The Buckeyes are allowing 188.2 passing yards per game, which ranks No. 14 nationally. Senior cornerback Doran Grant has been solid, but he is surrounded by talented, young players. OSU’s other three secondary starters are freshmen or sophomores, although junior Armani Reeves does start in the nickel formation.
The Buckeyes put up solid numbers, but they did struggle at times against the best passing offenses that they faced. Cincinnati and Gunner Kiel put up 352 yards through the air, and Michigan State’s Connor Cook threw for 358.
Enter Alabama’s passing offense, led by senior quarterback Blake Sims and junior wide receiver Amari Cooper. Combined, they were the nation’s top passing duo. Cooper won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top receiver, catching 115 passes for 1,656 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Sims emerged from a crowded group of competitors as Alabama’s starting quarterback, throwing for 3,250 yards with 26 touchdowns against seven interceptions. He thrived in Lane Kiffin’s offense, becoming an effective vertical passer. Ohio State will likely match Grant against Cooper, but he’ll need safety help. Expect Cooper to make multiple big plays and open up Alabama’s power run game against Ohio State’s defense.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Cardale Jones Will Struggle Against Alabama's Defense
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Cardale Jones’ 2014 is an incredible story of perseverance. Jones began the season as Ohio State’s third-string quarterback, and after J.T. Barrett’s post-Braxton Miller breakout, he appeared consigned to nothing more than mop-up time, save a transfer.
Barrett’s season-ending broken ankle in the regular-season finale against Michigan changed that equation, thrusting Jones into the spotlight. He was excellent in the Big Ten title game against Wisconsin, completing 12 of 17 passes for 257 yards and three touchdowns. Ohio State offensive coordinator Tom Herman says Jones has started acting like a man after becoming the starter, per USA Today's Laken Litman:
"He started acting like a man and doing things he was told to do and doing them right and 100% and giving great effort and acting like a real dude. And guess what. When you act like a real dude, I’m usually not on your ass a whole lot. You tell him to be at a meeting at 2 and he’s there at 1:52. For whatever reason, he has started acting like a man instead of a boy.
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At 6’5”, 250 pounds, Jones has a strong arm and mobility, but Alabama’s defense presents a new challenge.
The Crimson Tide has struggled at times against the pass this season, allowing 223.7 yards per game, No. 57 nationally. Auburn’s Nick Marshall burned the Tide for 456 yards in the Iron Bowl. But there’s no doubt Alabama has talent, led by standout safety Landon Collins.
With a month to prepare, Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart should have plenty of looks to confuse a second-time starter in Jones. He has talented options in wideouts Devin Smith, Jalin Marshall and Michael Thomas, but if the Tide can contain 1,400-yard rusher Ezekiel Elliott, it’ll be a long night in the Superdome for Jones.
Joey Bosa Will Make Blake Sims' Life Difficult
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There’s little question about one of the Sugar Bowl’s most fascinating matchups: Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa against Alabama left tackle Cameron Robinson.
Robinson has thrived in a high-profile role this season, becoming Alabama’s first true freshman starter at left tackle since Andre Smith in 2006. (Smith became a first-round pick for the Cincinnati Bengals.) Robinson has more than held his own against a succession of talented pass-rushers, starting all 13 games.
But he’ll get his biggest test in Bosa, who emerged this season as one of the nation’s top pass-rushers. Bosa was a unanimous All-American, making 50 tackles, 20.0 tackles for loss and 13.5 sacks. He has power, speed and intensity and is a huge chore for any left tackle, especially one making the biggest start of his young career.
Expect Bosa to continually pressure Alabama quarterback Blake Sims and get several sacks. Sims might get his numbers against Ohio State’s defense, but Bosa will be breathing down his neck all the way.
Florida State Will Upset Oregon
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This season, Florida State has emerged as college football’s black hat. Everyone outside of the Florida panhandle and FSU’s notoriously active Twitter fanbase has rooted for the Seminoles’ 29-game win streak to end, but the ‘Noles have embraced their role, and they just keep winning.
Oregon is the latest obstacle. The Ducks enter as nine-point favorites and feature a potent offense led by Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota, who has thrown 38 touchdowns against just two interceptions. Florida State isn’t daunted by such odds after compiling a 13-0 record with a season-long high-wire act led by Jameis Winston, who took the Heisman in 2013.
The Seminoles aren’t as talented as 2013’s BCS National Championship squad, but they’re battle-tested and aren’t fazed by early deficits. Oregon has played only two games decided by fewer than 12 points this season, losing 31-24 to Arizona and defeating Washington State 38-31. The Ducks also scored the game’s final 28 points for a 46-27 win over Michigan State, perhaps their best victory of the season.
Oregon isn’t all Mariota: The Ducks do boast a potent backfield led by freshman tailback Royce Freeman, a quick, powerful runner.
But the real X-factor could be Florida State freshman tailback Dalvin Cook, who stepped forward as the Seminoles’ best back in the season’s second half. Cook is a big play waiting to happen every time he touches the ball.
Ultimately, expect Winston to exploit an Oregon secondary playing without corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu and make enough big plays (early deficit or not) to advance to North Texas and a shot at a second consecutive national title.
Alabama Will Quiet Ohio State
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While Alabama and Ohio State are two of college football’s biggest traditional powers, their meetings are few and far between. The Sugar Bowl will be just the teams’ fourth all-time meeting and first since the 1995 Citrus Bowl, a 24-17 Alabama victory.
Alabama earned its spot as the nation’s clear No. 1 team, with its only blemish a narrow October defeat at Ole Miss. Ohio State overcame a shocking early home loss to a 7-6 Virginia Tech team to win 11 consecutive games, culminating with a 59-0 Big Ten title game blowout of Wisconsin that sealed its spot in the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes boast a potent offense that averages 45.2 points per game, while Alabama averages 37.1 in a balanced offense that has received a spark from first-year coordinator Lane Kiffin.
Senior quarterback Blake Sims will be playing in his first high-profile postseason game, but the Tide’s offensive leader has a season’s worth of games under his belt. The same can’t be said for talented but inexperienced Ohio State quarterback Cardale Jones, who began the season as the Buckeyes’ third-string quarterback.
While both teams will pass the ball, it comes down to which team will run more effectively to open up the pass. Give the edge to Alabama’s backfield duo of T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry. They’ll thrill an Alabama-centric crowd as the Tide roll to Dallas for the national title game.
Alabama Will Roll to a National Championship
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The College Football Playoff National Championship in North Texas will be a delicious matchup of mentor and protege. Jimbo Fisher served as Nick Saban’s offensive coordinator at LSU from 2000-04 and stayed at LSU after Saban took the Miami Dolphins' head coaching position. Fisher has modeled his program around Saban’s philosophies and has found success with them, winning the final BCS National Championship last season.
Alabama will be gunning for its fourth national title in five seasons, while Florida State hopes to extend the longest-running win streak in college football to 31 games with its second consecutive national championship. It’s an SEC power against an ACC program that could easily fit into the SEC. In other words, it’s more than worthy of AT&T Stadium’s stage.
The Crimson Tide’s secondary can be strafed, but sophomore quarterback and 2013 Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston is prone to mistakes, as his 17 interceptions this season show. With a potent offense that can control the clock, Alabama is the one team Florida State can’t afford to build an early deficit against.
That’s exactly what will happen. Winston will throw a pair of early interceptions that the Crimson Tide convert into scores, and the obligatory second-half rally falls short. The Tide roll to a national title as Florida State’s reign ends in North Texas.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
