Rose Bowl 2015: Stat Predictions for Key Playmakers in Oregon vs. FSU
Both the Oregon Ducks and Florida State Seminoles have advanced into the inaugural College Football Playoff on the heels of some very impressive team efforts. However, there are a few key players from each team who deserve a good chunk of the credit for getting to this Rose Bowl showdown.
Oregon enters the game ranked third in the nation in points scored, averaging 46.3 per game. That's due to a very well-balanced offensive attack that finished the season ranked 11th in passing yards and 22nd in rushing yards.
Florida State heads into the Rose Bowl ranked 29th in the nation, scoring an average of 34.8 points per game, and is coming off a 37-point showing against Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game. Much of that success comes from the team's 14th-ranked passing attack, but its running game has stepped up recently as well.
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So, when these two offensive juggernauts meet in the College Football Playoff, how are each team's offensive playmakers likely to fare? Let's take a look.
Oregon Ducks
Marcus Mariota
It's only fitting that we start with Oregon's Heisman-winning quarterback. Mariota earned those honors this year by delivering consistently efficient performances that resulted in 3,783 yards, 38 touchdowns, 669 rushing yards, another 14 scores and a receiving touchdown. Despite all of that scoring, he only threw two interceptions. That's quite an impressive ratio.
That ratio is also one reason why many analysts, such as Dane Brugler of CBS Sports, see Mariota going No. 1 overall in the 2015 NFL draft:
Mariota ended his season with a flourish in the Pac-12 Championship Game against Arizona. He threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns, rushing for 33 yards and another three scores. He's on a tremendous hot streak and has a favorable matchup against the Seminoles.
Florida State ranks 48th in the nation against the pass, allowing an average of 218.2 yards per game. The Seminoles have also given up 20 passing touchdowns this season. This team has been torched for more than 300 yards by both Everett Golson and Will Gardner this season, so it's easy to speculate Mariota will do the same.
Prediction: 322 passing yards, three touchdowns, 46 rushing yards, two touchdowns
Royce Freeman
This freshman running back has been a revelation out of Oregon's backfield this season, averaging 5.6 yards per carry while rushing for 1,299 yards and 16 touchdowns. Freeman has been on a roll over the back half of the season, averaging at least 5.1 yards per carry in each of his last eight games.
The Seminoles have shown a weakness against the run this year, ranking 56th in the nation, allowing an average of 160.1 yards per game on the ground as well as 16 rushing touchdowns. Although, they are only giving up an average of 3.94 yards per carry.
Taking Freeman's recent usage into consideration—he's received 22 and 21 carries over his last two games, respectively—he's in line to put up his fourth consecutive 100-yard performance.
Prediction: 114 rushing yards, one touchdown
Byron Marshall
Marshall has been Oregon's hybrid weapon this season. He's an enormous threat in the open field and has seen time at both running back and wide receiver. Expect the Ducks to get him involved early in an effort to keep the Seminoles on their heels.
While Marshall has seen consistent targets throughout the year, his production has been inconsistent. He's averaged at least 12.0 yards per reception in six games this season, but he's also averaged less than 10.0 yards per reception in another six contests.
Florida State's linebackers should be able to hold Marshall to fairly respectable numbers in the Rose Bowl.
Prediction: 46 receiving yards, 29 rushing yards
Florida State
Jameis Winston
Winston won the Heisman following his 2013 campaign in which he tossed 40 touchdown passes against 10 interceptions. To say his production dropped off in 2014 would be a severe understatement. In 12 games this season, the Florida State quarterback has produced 24 touchdown passes and thrown 17 interceptions—not quite Heisman-worthy numbers.
Although, Winston has mounted several comebacks this season, and he delivered this statement on the matter, via College Football 24/7:
Toward the back half of the season, Winston's interception total began to accumulate at a rapid pace. He threw at least one pick in six consecutive games, which included throwing three against Louisville and four against Florida, tallying 12 during that stretch.
Luckily, he finished the season with his best game of the year, completing 70 percent of his passes for 309 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions against Georgia Tech's 64th-ranked pass defense. Well, Winston has a very favorable matchup in the Rose Bowl against Oregon's 102nd-ranked secondary that doesn't have the services of top cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, who is out for the season with a knee injury.
Winston is poised to put up some gaudy numbers against the Ducks, but he must watch his accuracy against a ball-hawking defense that has tallied 25 takeaways this season.
Prediction: 313 passing yards, three touchdowns, one interception
Dalvin Cook
This freshman ball-carrier has been incredibly dynamic for the Seminoles this season. He has consistently produced at a high level whenever he was given the chance, and that rang true over the final two weeks of the season, as he received the lion's share of the workload out of the backfield and rushed for 144 and 177 yards, respectively, in those contests.
Oregon does have a decent run defense, ranking 49th in the nation and allowing an average of 154.2 yards per game; however, the team is also giving up a rather high average of 4.12 yards per carry. Cook should have several opportunities to break a long run during the Rose Bowl.
Karlos Williams missed the ACC title game, but he should receive some carries against Oregon, slightly limiting Cook's workload. However, if the freshman still receives roughly 20 carries, he should be in for a big day.
Prediction: 122 rushing yards, one touchdown, 42 receiving yards
Rashad Greene
Greene has been one of the nation's most prolific wide receivers this season, accumulating 93 receptions for 1,306 yards and seven touchdowns. He has extremely reliable hands and is a polished route-runner, making him the hands-down favorite target of Winston.
The senior receiver is coming off a great game against Georgia Tech in which he hauled in seven receptions for 123 yards and two touchdowns. Clearly, getting Greene involved early and often proved to be a major factor for his quarterback's success in that contest.
If that trend continues in the Rose Bowl—and it should—against Oregon's porous secondary that's missing its best cornerback, Greene could very well come away with one of his biggest games of the season.
Prediction: 156 receiving yards, two touchdowns
All player and team statistics and rankings courtesy of NCAA.com and current as of December 29.
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