College Football: New Year's Bowl Game Predictions
It's the most wonderful time of the year with more than enough bowl games to fill a college football fan's satisfaction, but the New Year's Six matchups—which include two inaugural playoff games—make this season's bowl mania extra special.
On Wednesday, No. 6 TCU will kick off New Year’s Eve against No. 9 Ole Miss in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. That matchup will be followed by a dual in the desert between No. 10 Arizona and No. 20 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl, while No. 7 Mississippi State will look to hold off a dangerous No. 12 Georgia Tech squad in the Orange Bowl to end the evening before ringing in the new year.
New Year’s Day begins with an intriguing Cotton Bowl clash between No. 5 Baylor and No. 8 Michigan State in Arlington, Texas. Mixed in with the Cotton Bowl will be the Outback Bowl, consisting of No. 18 Wisconsin and No. 19 Auburn, as well as the Citrus Bowl between No. 16 Missouri and No. 25 Minnesota.
After the conclusion of the first three games, it will be time for No. 2 Oregon and No. 3 Florida State to battle it out in the historic Rose Bowl game and No. 1 Alabama to face off with No. 4 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl.
In what will be a highly anticipated two days of college football, here are predictions for the eight New Year’s matchups.
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
1 of 8
Who: No. 9 Ole Miss vs. No. 6 TCU
When: Dec. 31 at 12:30 p.m. ET
Where: Atlanta, Georgia
TV: ESPN
TCU moved from third to sixth in the final College Football Playoff rankings, which is a bit of a disappointment for a team that dominated opponents for basically the entire season.
The Horned Frogs should get a challenge from Ole Miss in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, though.
Gary Patterson rebounded from a disappointing 4-8 2013 season with an 11-1 campaign and earned a share of the program's first Big 12 Conference title with help from an explosive offense led by quarterback Trevone Boykin.
Boykin, who has recorded 3,714 yards and 30 touchdowns this season, has helped TCU’s offense average the second-most points per game in the nation (46.8).
The Horned Frogs will need to be offensively sound, especially through the air, if they're going to have success against a physical Rebels defense holding opponents to a nation-best 13.8 points per game.
TCU’s lethal receiving corps of Josh Doctson, Deante' Gray and Kolby Listenbee (who is listed as questionable with a concussion) will look to give the Ole Miss secondary problems, after helping TCU finish the regular season with an impressive 332.8 passing yards per game.
With most of the hype surrounding a stingy Rebels defense led by sophomore defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche, the focus will be on the production of senior quarterback Bo Wallace. Ole Miss will have its hands full against a lethal Horned Frogs offense, but it must be able to keep up on the scoreboard if it's going to stay in this ball game.
Wallace did not throw a single touchdown pass in Ole Miss' final two regular-season games and had three total interceptions. Relying on running back Jaylen Walton, who recorded a career-high 148 rushing yards and one touchdown in a win against Mississippi State on Nov. 29, will not be enough to earn the Rebels their first 10-win season since 2003.
They have to be able to get tight end Evan Engram involved in a pass game that lost its top wide receivers to season-ending injuries.
Expect Ole Miss to keep the game tight against TCU, who felt it should be competing for a national championship, but the Horned Frogs will pull away with their third 12-win season since 2009.
Prediction: TCU 35, Ole Miss 24
Vizio Fiesta Bowl
2 of 8
Who: No. 20 Boise State vs. No. 10 Arizona
When: Dec. 31 at 4 p.m. ET
Where: Glendale, Arizona
TV: ESPN
Two teams that snuck their way into a major bowl game might not be the most intriguing matchup, but this is a meaningful game for two programs hoping for national recognition.
Boise State advanced to its third Fiesta Bowl in eight years after winning the Mountain West Conference Championship and being the highest-ranked Group of Five team in the country, while Arizona earned its first trip to the Fiesta Bowl since the 1993-94 season, despite losing in the Pac-12 Championship Game to Oregon 51-13.
The Broncos reeled off eight straight wins to end the regular season under first-year head coach Bryan Harsin and will look to give a team from one of the Power Five conferences all it can handle. All eyes will be on running back Jay Ajayi, who is ranked fifth in the country with 1,689 rushing yards, will forgo his senior season to enter the NFL draft.
The junior has accounted for 29 total touchdowns this year and will look to run through an Arizona run defense headed by All-American linebacker Scooby Wright (153 tackles, 14 sacks).
With so much focus on Boise State's run game, look for quarterback Grant Hedrick to be a threat with his arm against an Arizona secondary averaging an awful 279.1 passing yards per game (121st in the country).
The Broncos are averaging an impressive 39.8 points per game and have the capability to wear down the Wildcats by putting up large chunks of yardage.
Third-year head coach Rich Rodriguez is gradually turning around an Arizona program that had not won 10 games in a regular season since 1998.
After an embarrassing loss in the Pac-12 title game, freshman quarterback Anu Solomon (3,458 yards, 27 TDs) should be healthier in this contest. Solomon battled through a right-foot injury at the end of the regular season.
While he will look for help from receivers Cayleb Jones (902 yards, nine TDs) and Samajie Grant (649 yards, five TDs), Solomon will need a solid performance from 1,000-yard running back Nick Wilson, who rushed for 100-plus yards in four of his teams last five games.
It would be a surprise to see the Wildcats put on a poor showing for a second consecutive game, this time against a talented Boise State squad looking to stay undefeated in the Fiesta Bowl.
In what has the makings to be a shootout in the desert, look for Arizona to come away with a close victory to claim its first 11-win season in 16 years.
Prediction: Arizona 41, Boise State 34
Capital One Orange Bowl
3 of 8
Who: No. 7 Mississippi State vs. No. 12 Georgia Tech
When: Dec. 31 at 8 p.m. ET
Where: Miami, Florida
TV: ESPN
Mississippi State was 9-0 before losing two of its last three games to finish 10-2 and second in the SEC West Division.
The Bulldogs will play in the Orange Bowl for the third time in school history—most previously in 1941—against a dangerous Georgia Tech squad that almost knocked off Florida State in the ACC Championship game with its triple-option attack.
Quarterback Dak Prescott headlines this contest with 2,996 yards and 37 total touchdowns this season, along with 1,000-yard rusher Josh Robinson. The offense averaged only 18.5 points in its two losses to Alabama and Ole Miss, but overall it racked up a solid 37.2 points per game this year.
Now Prescott and Co. will look to have success against a Yellow Jackets defense giving up 396 total yards per game. If Prescott and Robinson create problems for Georgia Tech on the ground, the passing game will open up and likely result in points.
Paul Johnson’s Yellow Jackets are playing in their second Orange Bowl since 2010 and are looking to knock off another quality SEC opponent this season.
An offense averaging 333.6 rushing yards per game and 37 points per game is led by talented quarterback Justin Thomas, who has passed for 1,594 yards, rushed for 965 yards and scored 22 total touchdowns.
He’ll look for help in the backfield from running backs Zach Laskey and Synjyn Days to run over a Mississippi State defense that is holding opponents to 126.5 rushing yards per game.
The Georgia Tech receiving corps will be without DeAndre Smelter for a second straight game due to a season-ending ACL injury, meaning Thomas' target will likely be Darren Waller, who had five receptions for 73 yards and one touchdown against Florida State.
A big question heading into this matchup will be how well Mississippi State plays defensively after losing defensive coordinator Geoff Collins to Florida.
The Yellow Jackets will give the Bulldogs all they can handle with their rush attack, but expect Prescott to the lead the offense and make big plays in important situations to earn his team a fourth bowl win in five seasons.
Prediction: Mississippi State 38, Georgia Tech 31
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Outback Bowl
4 of 8
Who: No. 19 Auburn vs. No. 18 Wisconsin
When: Jan. 1 at noon ET
Where: Tampa, Florida
TV: ESPN2
Wisconsin athletic director Barry Alvarez will take over interim coaching duties for the Badger's bowl game for the second time in three seasons. Alvarez lost 20-14 to Stanford in the 2013 Rose Bowl, meaning his last win came in the Capital One Bowl against Auburn in 2006.
It will be Heisman runner-up Melvin Gordon’s last chance to make a statement in the Wisconsin backfield, as he attempts to break Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record of 2,628 yards, but he’ll be up against a physical Auburn defense that has hopes of redeeming itself after giving up an unimpressive 539 total yards in a 55-44 loss to Alabama.
Like Auburn, Wisconsin will hope to bounce back after a shocking 59-0 Big Ten Championship Game loss to Ohio State. Gordon, who has accounted for 2,336 rushing yards and 29 total touchdowns this season, will need to play a big role for the Badgers, who have one of the best ground games in the country and a less than subpar passing game.
Corey Clement could be of some help to Gordon in the backfield, but quarterback Joel Stave needs to complete passes in critical third-down situations if Wisconsin has any chance of ending a four-game bowl skid.
The Tigers head into their second Outback Bowl game in five years, after losing three of their last five games to end the regular season. Senior quarterback Nick Marshall will get his final start behind center at Auburn, as he faces a Badgers defense holding opponents to 20 points per game this season.
Marshall—who has thrown for 2,315 yards, rushed for 780 yards and scored 29 total touchdowns—will also look for help from 1,000-yard rusher Cameron Artis-Payne and wide receiver Sammie Coates through the air.
Team-leading wide receiver D'haquille Williams status for Thursday's contest is currently unknown according to Brandon Marcello of Al.com
If Auburn plays up to its potential and avoids turning over the ball—giving Gordon good field position to score—there is no reason Gus Malzahn’s squad can’t outscore the Badgers and come away with a solid win to reach nine wins.
Prediction: Auburn 35, Wisconsin 28
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
5 of 8
Who: No. 8 Michigan State vs. No. 5 Baylor
When: Jan. 1 at 12:30 p.m. ET
Where: Arlington, Texas
TV: ESPN
Baylor will basically play in its own backyard after being snubbed by the College Football Playoff committee. Art Briles' Bears will face off against eighth-ranked Michigan State in a matchup of contrasting football styles.
Senior quarterback Bryce Petty will play in his final collegiate game after leading his team to two consecutive Big 12 Conference titles, two major bowl games and finishing second in career passing yards in program history.
The offensive juggernaut averaging 48.8 points per game (first in the country) and 346.2 passing yards per game (fifth in the country) will be up against its toughest defensive competition yet.
Petty will rely on his lethal receiving corps of Corey Coleman (969 yards, 10 TDs), KD Cannon (833 yards, six TDs) and Antwan Goodley (737 yards, six TDs) in hopes of tiring out a Spartan defense that struggled in the second half against a fast-paced Oregon offense on the road.
Baylor will also rely on running back Shock Linwood, who finished the regular season with 1,226 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. Linwood’s challenge will be to run through a Michigan State defensive front, led by All-Big Ten defensive end Shilique Calhoun, that has held opponents to only 97.5 rushing yards per game.
With Baylor being in the national discussion throughout the entire season, Michigan State went a quiet 10-2 and hung around in the Top 10, despite losing two games to current No. 2 Oregon and No. 4 Ohio State.
Despite scoring an impressive 43.1 points per game (seventh in the country), the Spartans offense has the task of keeping up with Baylor. Quarterback Connor Cook (2,900 yards, 22 TDs) has been solid this season thanks in part to All-Big Ten wide receiver Tony Lippett, who has recorded 1,124 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Running back Jeremy Langford (1,360 yards, 19 TDs) has also been a big aspect to the offense this season and will face Baylor’s defensive line consisting of linemen Andrew Billings and Shawn Oakman.
After a disappointing outing in last year's Fiesta Bowl against UCF, expect Petty and Co. to come away with a victory in a high-scoring affair to earn their biggest bowl win in school history.
Prediction: Baylor 45, Michigan State 35
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
6 of 8
Who: No. 25 Minnesota vs. No. 16 Missouri (Orlando)
When: Jan. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Orlando, Florida
TV: ABC
Both programs exceeded expectations this season and will now battle it out in what should be a defensive struggle.
It’s the second consecutive season Jerry Kill’s squad won at least eight games, and it included being one win away from winning the Big Ten West Division title. The Golden Gophers' success has come behind senior running back David Cobb, who has 293 carries for 1,545 yards and 13 touchdowns this season.
Cobb leads a ground attack averaging 224.6 yards per game, while the pass game led by quarterback Mitch Leidner has struggled by only averaging 131.4 yards per game (123rd in the country).
The Tigers have been one of the biggest surprises in college football the last two seasons, as they've won two consecutive SEC East Division titles.
Gary Pinkel’s Tigers were blown out by a combined average of 23 points in both SEC title games to Auburn and Alabama, but no one could have predicted this kind of success when Missouri joined the conference in 2012.
Quarterback Maty Mauk leads an offense averaging only 27.4 points per game despite having playmakers in both the run and pass game.
Both All-SEC wide receiver Bud Sasser and running back Russell Hansbrough will look to present problems for a Golden Gophers defense surrendering 23.4 points per game. Sasser has racked up an impressive 935 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, while Hansbrough has rushed for 970 yards and nine touchdowns.
All-SEC player Marcus Murphy will also look to contribute in Missouri’s offense, as he moved into second in all-purpose yards in school history this season.
This matchup might lack scoring, but should have a solid display of defense. It will likely be close throughout the entire game, but look for Cobb to help Minnesota end a six-game bowl losing streak and earn its first win since 2004.
Prediction: Minnesota 27, Missouri 24
Rose Bowl
7 of 8
Who: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State
When: Jan. 1 at 4:30 p.m. ET
Where: Pasadena, California
TV: ESPN
The Rose Bowl will kick off the inaugural College Football Playoff with a clash between Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks in what should be the best game on New Year’s Day.
Marcus Mariota has left his mark on an elite Oregon program by winning the school’s first Heisman Trophy, shattering school records and going down as the best quarterback to ever play for the Ducks—but he still has business left as he hopes to the lead Oregon to its first national championship.
Mariota, who has accounted for 3,783 passing yards, 669 rushing yards and 52 total touchdowns this season, leads an explosive offense that has been on a tear by averaging 48 points per game in its last eight consecutive victories.
The success of the offense will also need a big game from freshman phenom running back Royce Freeman.
Freeman (1,299 yards, 16 TDs) will give Oregon a physical presence on the ground, which it has not had in years past against bigger and more physical defensive lines. His ability to run through the tackles will be key in Mariota getting the ball into the hands of Byron Marshall, as well as Devon Allen and Darren Carrington.
With the Ducks flying high heading into Pasadena, there has been speculation on just how talented Florida State is, as its second consecutive undefeated regular season record landed it in the No. 3 spot of the College Football Playoff rankings.
The Seminoles are currently riding an incredible 29-game winning streak, which is impressive no matter what conference you play in. Add a national championship to that run, and it’s hard to argue the talent of a team that has won seven games this season by an average of 4.3 points.
Quarterback Jameis Winston bounced back from five poor performances to lead his team to a third straight ACC Championship Game, where he threw for 309 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.
Freshman running back Dalvin Cook could likely take most of the workload again if Karlos Williams is unable to go because of a concussion suffered against Florida on Nov. 29.
Cook has averaged 160.5 rushing yards and one touchdown in Florida State’s last two games and will look to run past an improved Don Pellum Oregon defense.
A dangerous wide receiver, Rashad Greene (1,306 yards, seven TDs), and reliable tight end, Nick O’Leary (614 yards, six TDs), will look to make big plays and cause problems for an Oregon secondary that will be without All-Pac-12 defensive back Ifo Ekpre-Olomu.
Oregon will win if its offensive line, led by left tackle Jake Fisher, can protect Mariota and open up gaps for Freeman to wear down a Florida State defense giving up 160.1 rushing yards per game this season.
The Ducks have been solid down the stretch and will pull away in the fourth quarter to snap the Seminoles' winning streak and put themselves in position to win a national championship.
Prediction: Oregon 42, Florida State 30
Allstate Sugar Bowl
8 of 8
Who: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State
When: Jan. 1 at 8:30 p.m. ET
Where: New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: ESPN
This is the type of matchup that will make the playoffs special. Two of the best coaches in college football—Nick Saban and Urban Meyer—will square off in a highly anticipated game with conference pride on the line.
Saban has four national championships and will look to lead his Crimson Tide to their fourth national championship in six years, while Urban Meyer has two national championships under his belt from Florida and will hope to lead the Buckeyes to their first national championship since 2002-03.
Alabama has won eight straight games and comes in hot, averaging 37.1 points per game. Quarterback Blake Sims has been reliable under center and has thrown 3,250 passing yards and 26 touchdowns during the regular season.
Sims' main target through the air will be Heisman finalist Amari Cooper, who is second in the nation with 1,656 yards and 14 touchdowns. Cooper will look to cause problems for a Buckeyes secondary with his speed and ability to make big plays.
The most anticipated matchup heading into the Sugar Bowl will be the Crimson Tide's ferocious ground attack against an Ohio State defensive line consisting of All-American defensive end Joey Bosa (51 tackles, 13.5 sacks).
The duo tandem of T.J. Yeldon (who's on pace to play Thursday) and Derrick Henry in the backfield has run through opposing defenses this season for a combined 1,827 yards and 20 touchdowns.
Ohio State’s blowout 59-0 victory over Wisconsin to seal its first outright Big Ten title since 2009 was in part to third-string quarterback Cardale Jones' impressive performance. While Jones faced a tough Wisconsin defense, he’ll be up against a quicker and more athletic Crimson Tide defense that is surrendering only 16.6 points per game and 88.7 rushing yards per game.
Jones will look to reliable wide receiver Devin Smith, who caught all three touchdowns against Wisconsin, to be a playmaker against a Crimson Tide defense that hasn’t been as strong against the pass this season. Ezekiel Elliott, a 1,000-yard rusher, will also hope to have success on the ground against a stout Crimson Tide defense.
Ohio State is one of the best teams in the country and will stay in the game, but the Crimson Tide will put pressure on Jones and cause him to make a few poor decisions with the football.
Between converting turnovers on defense and physically wearing down Ohio State’s run defense, Alabama will win the game and advance to the national championship.
Prediction: Alabama 38, Ohio State 24
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