Pinstripe Bowl 2014: Full Predictions for Boston College vs. Penn State
There won't be any baseballs on the field at Yankee Stadium on Saturday.
Football will be played in The House That Ruth Built this weekend, as Boston College squares off against Penn State in the 2014 New Era Pinstripe Bowl. The field made the successful transition from baseball to football, as the Nittany Lions' official Twitter account posted:
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This year's installment of the Pinstripe Bowl features two teams with two competing strengths. The Eagles run the ball extremely well. The Nittany Lions defend the run extremely well—better than anyone else in the country, in fact.
Will the Eagles be able to muster any offense if Penn State can shut down the run game? You'll have to tune into the game to find out. In the meantime, check out some predictions below.
Penn State Will Stifle Ground Game
Penn State was tops in the country against the run, allowing a measly 84.6 yards per game. Despite BC's success on the ground (251.8 yards per game), one would think that it'd lead to an alteration of the game plan heading into play.
Andy Gallik, a senior offensive lineman, told Spencer Fordin of MLB.com that the Eagles will stick to the same strategy that got them here in the first place:
"We're going to run the ball just like we always have. We're going to run it right at them, and we feel like that's how we're most comfortable and most effective. That's going to set up passing situations where Tyler Murphy is going to make a lot of plays for us. It's going to be a really tough game."
BC has run for over 3,000 yards as a team this season. Averaging 5.1 yards per carry and scoring 29 touchdowns, seven different ball-carriers have contributed to the offense's success.
Leading the way is Murphy, a senior who thrives as a dual-threat quarterback. He rushed for 1,079 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.4 yards per rush.
But Jon Hilliman is also a threat, having scored 12 touchdowns in as many games.
Regardless, no team in the country is better prepared to face the Eagles' run game than the Nittany Lions.
They've allowed just 247 rushing yards in their past three contests. That's largely because of three stalwarts on the defense, as Rich Thompson of the Boston Herald writes:
"Mike Hull, the Big Ten linebacker of the year, is the central nervous system of this elite unit. Hull led the Lions with 134 tackles with 10.5 for a loss. [Head coach James] Franklin employs a 4-3 defensive formation and Hull is flanked on the second layer by sophomore Brandon Bell and junior Nyeem Wartman."
The linebackers will prove instrumental to Penn State's success against BC on the ground. While BC's stellar offensive line will work to block off the oncoming defensive linemen, it will be up to the linebackers to find holes and get into the backfield.
Of course, a linebacker also must be left to spy on Murphy, as he'll take off on plays that aren't designed runs. He takes what the defense gives him, and his ability to adapt to pressure is unmatched by most in the nation.
But the linebacking unit of Penn State is a surer bet than BC's run game. A general rule of thumb is that defense wins championships. The Nittany Lions aren't playing for anything too prestigious on Saturday, but their defense will carry them in the Pinstripe Bowl.
Look for them to hold BC far below their season average of 250-plus yards on the ground.
Neither Team Will Score Over 21
Penn State's defense isn't the only suffocating unit in this matchup. We'd be remiss to not give BC any recognition.
As the accompanying graphic shows, BC's defense also ranks highly. The Eagles aren't as well-rounded as the Nittany Lions, but the unit is still one of the stronger ones around. That means offense will be at a minimum.
Let's go back to Penn State's defense for a moment. Assuming the team successful stops the run, the only worry is Murphy as a passer. That's something he's just pedestrian at. He completed just 56.9 percent of his passes on the year for 1,526 yards, 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Shutting down the run forces BC to pass, and the Eagles won't be able to win if that's the case. Murphy is a talented athlete, but he's not the type of quarterback you can lean on to win games with his arm.
He isn't capable of making all the passes required of a top-notch quarterback. Keep him in the pocket, and you'll find success as a defense.
On the other side, Christian Hackenberg has been even more unimpressive. He completed only 54.4 percent of his passes for 2,606 yards, eight touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Granted, he spent most of his time scrambling around because his young offensive line had problems preventing pass-rushers from getting into the backfield.
Neither Hackenberg nor Murphy scream "difference-maker" as a quarterback.
Assuming BC holds its own against the run game of Penn State—who only averaged 103.7 yards per game on the ground—this could very well be a game decided by a defensive score.
Prediction
All things considered, this is going to be one heck of a game.
There's a place for offensive shootouts, like the one we saw in the 2014 Bahamas Bowl between Western Kentucky and Central Michigan.
But a matchup that pits two defensive powerhouses together will always have a place during bowl season. Penn State and BC are two of the more well-known programs in the country, and they'll put on a show for those in attendance and those at home.
Hackenberg and Murphy are not good passers, but it'll ultimately come down to which quarterback can make the throws necessary to sustain drives and score touchdowns.
Hackenberg's tendency to throw multiple interceptions in a game (something he did five times this season) puts Penn State at a disadvantage. All it takes is one score to win a game, and it's clear that BC's persistence running the ball will eventually open something up in the passing game.
All Murphy needs to do is convert on a few passes here and there.
Prediction: Boston College 17, Penn State 16
Follow Kenny DeJohn on Twitter: @kennydejohn
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