Ranking the 5 Most Surprising NBA Teams This Season
The first trimester of the NBA season has come and gone, leaving us with impressions galore regarding the power structure of each conference.
While the Western Conference is shaping up to include the eight teams most preseason projections had pegged, the hierarchy has shifted considerably. With the Golden State Warriors sitting atop the pecking order and the defending champion San Antonio Spurs 6.5 games back of the No. 1 seed in the seventh position, it's anyone's guess as to how home-court advantage will shake out in the coming months.
And out East, the Atlanta Hawks have been simply stunning thanks to stellar ball movement and perimeter marksmanship that has resulted in surprisingly effective emulation of the Spurs.
So as we take stock of the Association through the holiday season, it's time to examine which teams have exceeded expectations en route to surprisingly prosperous results.
In order to rank the five chosen clubs, analyzing last year's results in tandem with preseason expectations was imperative. Thus, teams that have already approached 2013-14 win totals or are shoo-ins to do so were given preferential treatment.
5. Houston Rockets
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The Houston Rockets' record (20-7) isn't exactly surprising considering they occupied the Western Conference's No. 4 seed last season.
However, the methods that have led them there have spurned convention in more ways than one.
Under the leadership of general manager Daryl Morey and head coach Kevin McHale, the Rockets have been known for possessing one of the league's most efficient offensive approaches.
Threes fly, layups abound, players get to the line and mid-range attempts are frowned upon. And while those general principles continue to guide Houston's offense, the Rockets rank just 19th in efficiency, producing 105.1 points per 100 possessions, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
James Harden, who operates as an embodiment of Houston's stylings, has been remarkably efficient (26.54 PER, No. 1 among shooting guards) despite shooting just 42.6 percent from the field and 33.5 percent from three. Fortunately, Harden's attempting free throws at a rate consistent with only Russell Westbrook and teammate Dwight Howard, players who live at the rim.
The defense, on the other hand, has been positively suffocating. Per Basketball-Reference.com, Houston ranks second in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to 101.1 points per 100 possessions.
For a change, Harden hasn't functioned as a complete defensive liability. Instead, Houston's a mere 0.9 points better per 100 defensive possessions when he sits, per NBA.com.
The real edge, though, has come when swingman Trevor Ariza is patrolling the perimeter.
Signed to play the role of vaunted three-and-D weapon, Ariza has made Houston's defense downright elite during his 1,073 minutes on the floor. According to NBA.com, the Rockets have been 12.0 points better per 100 defensive possessions with Ariza in the lineup, good for a defensive rating of 95.3 in such situations.
4. Milwaukee Bucks
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The Milwaukee Bucks may have a .500 record (15-15), but they've already equaled last season's win total. They also occupy the Eastern Conference's No. 6 seed.
And in a conference starved for solid Nos. 1-8 depth like the West, a .500 record should qualify Jason Kidd's club for the postseason.
The offense may be sputtering (20th in efficiency), but the defense is still slightly above average (No. 11 overall), per Basketball-Reference.com. As is the case with most young teams, continuity has been easier to find as the result of pure athleticism than tactical execution.
As Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher put it just last week when discussing Kidd's time in Milwaukee, "The fit with the Bucks appears to be as good as the one with the Nets was not."
Kidd's influence is also evident when you examine point guard Brandon Knight's production.
According to Basketball-Reference.com, Knight is one of nine players—along with James Harden, Chris Paul, Damian Lillard, Stephen Curry, Kyle Lowry, LeBron James, John Wall and Russell Westbrook—averaging at least 18 points, five assists and four rebounds this season.
Knight's also improved dramatically from beyond the arc, where he's knocking down better than 40 percent of his attempts. Per NBA.com, Knight is drilling 46.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot triples, shots that account for more than 20 percent of his total production.
3. Memphis Grizzlies
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Like the Houston Rockets, the Memphis Grizzlies are surprising because of how their efficiency has skewed.
The defense, as always, has been beyond proficient. Dave Joerger's boys rank ninth in efficiency on that end, limiting opponents to 104.2 points per 100 possessions despite ranking 24th in opponent's three-point field-goal percentage (37.0), according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Fortunately, the interior tandem of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph has locked opponents up to the tune of 50.2 percent shooting at the rim (No. 6 overall), per NBA.com.
But on offense, Memphis has been surprisingly lethal.
Since 2010, the Grizzlies haven't ranked better than 15th in offensive rating. Over the past two years, that lack of production could be chalked up partially due to squads that ranked dead last in pace (possessions generated per 48 minutes).
Although Memphis' pace has crept up to just 27th overall, the offense is generating plenty of favorable looks in the half court.
Specifically, the Grizzlies rank first in "close" touches per game (24.6), defined as touches that originate within 12 feet of the basket, per NBA.com. They also rank second in elbow touches per game (28.0).
Furthermore, Memphis' three-point shooting has nudged up just slightly to 35.2 percent, good for 16th overall. Compared to last year, the Grizzlies are drilling nearly one more triple per game on average, with Courtney Lee (48.7 percent from deep) facilitating more favorable looks.
2. Golden State Warriors
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After handing Mark Jackson a pink slip following a 51-win campaign, it was unclear whether the Golden State Warriors would be able to bolt higher than the Western Conference's No. 6 seed with Steve Kerr at the helm.
Surprisingly, regression has completely eluded the Warriors. In fact, they're shattering expectations with the league's most polished two-way attack.
First, the team-related greatness: According to NBA.com, Golden State owns the league's top net rating, slicing opponents up by 10.4 points per 100 possessions. While the offense ranks fifth (107.3 efficiency rating), the defense is tops in the league (96.9).
Considering last year's Warriors already ranked fourth in defensive rating and 12th in offensive rating, it's astounding that Kerr has been able to improve those marks via rotational tweaks and some cunning tactical maneuvers.
One of those, as outlined by Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal, has been Kerr's willingness to play Stephen Curry off the ball:
"The Warriors are finally taking full advantage of Curry's offensive talent, which is one of the many reasons he's asserted himself as a strong MVP candidate during the opening salvo of the NBA season.
During the 2013-14 go-round, the Davidson product was rarely asked to cut off the ball. He didn't run imitations of Kyle Korver too often, using screens to free himself and let fly from beyond the arc as soon as a pass wound up in his hands. Instead, he would initiate sets that actually took him out of the proceedings.
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To Fromal's point, Curry is now attempting 23.3 percent of his total shots in the form of catch-and-shoot opportunities, while 19.2 percent of his totals threes have come via catch-and-shoot looks, per NBA.com. Last season, those marks sat at 17 and 14 percent, respectively.
To cap things off, Curry is averaging at least 23 points, seven assists and two steals. Prior to this season, only six players (Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Allen Iverson, Tim Hardaway, Michael Adams and Michael Jordan) had achieved that feat, per Basketball-Reference.com.
1. Atlanta Hawks
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Conventional wisdom suggested the Atlanta Hawks would be Eastern Conference also-rans come season's end, but 14 wins in 16 games have Mike Budenholzer's squad competing for a No. 1 seed.
As a result, the Hawks are on track to win at least 22 games before the New Year for the first time since 1979, according to ESPN Stats & Info.
Possessing the league's ninth-best net rating (plus-4.7 points per 100 possessions), according to NBA.com, Atlanta's playing offense at a rate steady with the Portland Trail Blazers and defense nearly dead-even with the San Antonio Spurs.
Boasting five double-figure scorers and the game's premier marksman in Kyle Korver, Atlanta is looking like a legitimate threat to emerge as Eastern Conference champions in a club that includes the Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards.
Bleacher Report's Dylan Murphy dives deeper:
"They attempt the fourth-fewest mid-range shots per game and third-most right corner threes. Also, 27.5 percent of their points, on average, are generated by threes, the fifth-highest rate in the league.
Six players on the team are shooting above 35 percent from deep, and Kyle Korver is keeping up his ridiculous 50-plus percent pace at 53.9 from beyond the arc. Even with a hand up on jumpers, the team is still shooting 40.8 percent on catch-and-shoots, according to Synergy Sports (subscription required)—fourth-best in the NBA.
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Putting the San Antonio Spurs' model into action—ranked second in assists and fifth in three-point field-goal percentage—Atlanta's pristine ball movement and improving defense have the Hawks in prime position to make some serious postseason noise.
The Golden State Warriors have a case to make for the No. 1 spot, but considering they exceeded 50 wins last season while the Hawks won just 38, Atlanta earns the slightest of edges.
All statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and current as of Dec. 26.
