NFL Predictions Week 17: Can't-Miss Picks and Matchup Guide

Questions of motivation make NFL Week 17 games tricky for bettors to handicaps.

With nothing to gain or lose, how do the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts respond on Sunday? Do teams officially out of the hunt pack it up or finish the season with all guns blazing? Nobody wants to bring up the dirty "T" word, but certain teams have to be thinking about draft positioning.

Last week's can't-miss pick of the Baltimore Ravens topping the Houston Texans...well...missed. So let's say these two outcomes have the highest probability of morphing into fruition, although several variables can throw any NFL game into unanticipated chaos.

Matchup	Odds	Predicted Winner	Pick ATS
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens	BAL -10	Ravens	Ravens
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins	DAL -5.5	Cowboys	Cowboys
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans	IND -7.5	Colts	Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans	HOU -10.5	Texans	Texans
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs	KC -2.5	Chiefs	Chiefs
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins	MIA -7	Dolphins	Jets
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings	MIN -7	Vikings	Vikings
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots	NE -5	Bills	Bills
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants	NYG -2.5	Eagles	Eagles
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NO -4	Saints	Saints
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons	ATL -4.5	Falcons	Falcons
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers	GB -9	Packers	Lions
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos	DEN -14.5	Broncos	Raiders
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers	SF -7	49ers	49ers
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks	SEA -14	Seahawks	Rams
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT -3.5	Steelers	Steelers

All odds are courtesy of Odds Shark as of Wednesday (Dec. 24) at 10 p.m. ET.

Week 17 Can't-Miss Picks

Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at New York Giants

Evan Habeeb/Getty Images

Thank recency bias for a 6-9 team getting favored over a superior 9-6 club.

A month ago, this line would have caused a stampede in Vegas, but the Philadelphia Eagles have dropped three straight while the New York Giants have sewed together a three-game win streak.

The Eagles weren't 9-3 good, and the Giants weren't 3-9 bad. Both teams are better represented by their current records.

Eagles (Week/Result)	Opponent's Record	Giants (Week/Result)	Opponent's Record
W14: Seattle (24-14 L)	11-4	W14: W Tennessee (36-7 W)	2-13
W15: Dallas (38-27 L)	11-4	W15: Washington (24-13 W)	4-11
W16: Washington (27-24 L)	4-11	W16: St. Louis (37-27 W)	6-9

Their Week 6 meeting resulted in a bloodbath. The Eagles won 27-0 on the strength of eight sacks. New York's vulnerable offensive line stacks up poorly against Philadelphia's blitz-heavy defense, but the embarrassment bears a slight silver lining.

Rather than phoning in Week 17, offensive tackle Justin Pugh vowed vengeance, per the New York Post's Kevin Kernan.

"

We didn’t score at all. We definitely have something to prove. We have to go out there, put points up and take pressure off our defense. I think that is something we are looking forward to getting accomplished this week. We’ve got to put in a good week of practice, and I think that will show on Sunday.

"

Don't expect any let-up on the other side, either. Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur spoke of the team's desire to sweep their NFC East foes.

The Giants are a simple team to peg. They're 1-7 against winning teams and 5-2 against losing teams.

Even that lone victory is tarnished, as they topped the Houston Texans sans Arian Foster.

They're not good, but they're not awful enough to lose to the bottom-tier squads, aside from their fourth-quarter debacle against the Jacksonville Jaguars stemming from two fumbles turned into touchdowns.

Conversely, the Eagles are 6-2 against losing teams, and last Saturday's shocker to Washington created some doubt.

Expect Odell Beckham Jr. to go nuts when lined up against Bradley Fletcher, too.

With that being said, New York's defensive woes—mainly its No. 30 rushing defense—will resurface against the first solid team it has played in over a month.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Giants 27 

New Orleans Saints (-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It's safe to safe the eliminated New Orleans Saints simply are not that good.

After giving them the benefit of the doubt all season, waiting for them to turn on the jets and run away with the NFC South, they suffered a 30-14 loss to the Atlanta Falcons that eliminated them from playoff contention.

Against the NFL's worst defense, New Orleans generated 4.7 yards per play. They went 59 minutes and 40 seconds with just one touchdown as the division hung on a silver platter.

Drew Brees leads the NFL with 4,671 passing yards, but his two picks led ESPN analyst Tim Hasselbeck to criticize the top passer, as relayed by Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman.

While it's totally plausible for the Saints to lose to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the smart money says otherwise. This is a two-win Tampa Bay team riding a five-game losing streak. The same club that hasn't won a home game.

Before leaning on the old "Brees can't play on the road" clutch, note that New Orleans has won its last three away from the Superdome.

Tampa Bay also ranks No. 31 in total offense, which is a far cry from Atlanta's No. 7 unit that bullied the Saints last Sunday.

A win does nothing for New Orleans, but Brees is 329 yards shy of tallying his fourth consecutive 5,000-yard passing season. Sean Payton wasn't shy about letting Brees pad his stats last year, as he concluded 2013 with 381 yards and four touchdowns against...Tampa Bay.

As for the Buccaneers, a loss ensures them Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, or whomever else they want with the No. 1 draft pick. They shouldn't have any urgency to steal this meaningless match, but the Saints would be happy to blow off some steam after an agonizingly disappointing season.

Prediction: Saints 34, Buccaneers 17