Week 17 NFL Picks: Predictions on Vegas' Mid-Week Betting Odds and Lines

Week 17 can prove to be difficult for bettors, as there are even more factors to take into consideration.

While we must still delve into recent on-field performances, injury reports, weather conditions and matchups, playoff implications must also be taken into consideration as well. Take this, for example: The New England Patriots opened as 10-point favorites over the Buffalo Bulls but have since dropped to 4.5-point favorites.

What was the cause for that alteration? Once the Cincinnati Bengals defeated the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football, New England clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Since the team can no longer improve its position, it is expected to rest its starters in Week 17.

Although, keep a keen eye on that situation, as Shalise Manza Young of the Boston Globe reported head coach Bill Belichick has not officially declared that his starters won't play.

So, which games are safe to bet in the season's final week? Before we break down a couple of wager-friendly contests, let's first take a look at the full slate of games, their corresponding odds and a pick against the spread for each.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
San Diego at Kansas City	KC -2.5	Chiefs	There's just not enough offense in Kansas City,
Jacksonville at Houston	HOU -10	Jaguars	This game will be too low-scoring to warrant a double-digit spread.
Philadelphia at NY Giants	NYG -3	Giants	The Giants have the more prolific offense all of a sudden.
Buffalo at New England	NE -3.5	Bills	Buffalo gets this win if New England plays its reserves.
Dallas at Washington	DAL -7	Cowboys	As long as Dallas doesn't rest its starters, it will trump the Redskins.
Cleveland at Baltimore	BAL -8.5	Ravens	Connor Shaw may start for Cleveland. That pretty much sums it up.
Chicago at Minnesota	MIN -6.5	Bears	See analysis below.
Indianapolis at Tennessee	IND -7	Colts	If the Colts decide to start their reserves, they'll still beat the Titans by seven.
Carolina at Atlanta	ATL -4	Falcons	Atlanta is a hot team right now, and it will ride its momentum to the NFC South title.
NY Jets at Miami	MIA -5.5	Jets	New York's ground game will control the clock and keep this contest close.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay	NO -4	Saints	New Orleans will be aiming for a big win to finish the season on a high note.
Oakland at Denver	DEN -16	Raiders	Denver doesn't look like it could beat anyone by 16 points right now.
St. Louis at Seattle	SEA -13	Seahawks	Seattle may be the league's most dominant team heading into Week 17.
Arizona at San Francisco	SF -6	49ers	See analysis below.
Detroit at Green Bay	GB -7.5	Packers	Aaron Rodgers has been matchup proof at home this season.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh	PIT -3	Bengals	Cincinnati's ability to run the ball will earn it the AFC North crown.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of December 23.

Mid-Week Odds to Bet

Chicago Bears (+6.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Bears quarterback Jay Cutler was benched prior to the team's Week 16 contest against the Detroit Lions due to a three-game losing streak in which he tossed a total of six interceptions. Backup Jimmy Clausen put in a decent performance in Cutler's stead but suffered a concussion and will not play in the season's finale, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter:

That's right, Cutler's back.

Although, the return of the team's regular starter may not be a bad thing against the Vikings. After all, Cutler defeated Minnesota earlier this season, completing 31 of his 43 passing attempts for 330 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions for a 98.0 passer rating.

There's a strong possibility that he'll put up some gaudy numbers once again. The Vikings are coming off a game in which they allowed 396 yards and four touchdowns to Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill despite entering Week 17 as the league's eighth-ranked pass defense.

One more aspect that plays into Cutler's favor is playing away from Chicago. The Bears signal-caller has been much better on the road than at home this year. Here's a look at his statistical comparison:

Split	GP	CMP%	YDS	TD	INT	RAT
Home	7	65.9	1,790	13	11	84.3
Away	7	66.3	1,850	15	7	94.8

Let's not forget the Vikings haven't been very good against the run this season, ranking 25th in the league in that category. Matt Forte rushed for 117 yards the last time these teams met, and another performance like that will keep Chicago's offense balanced and give Cutler more opportunities to succeed.

If Chicago's quarterback needs any more motivation, he'll get it from knowing this game may be an audition for a team willing to trade for him over the offseason.

Prediction: Bears 24, Vikings 20

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-6)

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Both of these teams suffered losses in Week 16, but only one of them looked competitive. The 49ers utilized their dangerous running game to rack up 355 rushing yards and three touchdowns against the San Diego Chargers. They lost in overtime following a fourth-quarter meltdown, but that was the best San Francisco looked since Week 6.

On the flip side, the Cardinals couldn't generate any kind of offense against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 16, racking up a total of just 216 yards in a 35-6 drubbing. Quarterback Ryan Lindley looked completely inept under center, and the team's running game averaged a mere 1.9 yards per carry. It was an all-around pitiful effort.

Making matters even worse for Arizona, it has decided to roll the dice with rookie Logan Thomas, giving the inexperienced signal-caller his first start of his career in Week 17, via NFL on ESPN:

While not many of the league's quarterback could possibly be worse options than Lindley, starting Thomas is a huge gamble against the NFL's fifth-ranked defense. Still stout against both the run and the pass, the 49ers rank seventh and fifth in those categories, respectively.

So, we've covered the fact Arizona won't have an easy time getting points on the board, but what about San Francisco? Well, this is a team that just had its biggest rushing performance of the season, and it's going up against an Arizona team that just allowed 7.9 yards per carry to the Seahawks.

The 49ers have every advantage in this one.

Prediction: 49ers 24, Cardinals 13